Dustin Johnson (20/1) completely dominated the field at the Northern Trust, finishing at 30-under and winning the tournament by 11 strokes. He became only the third player in history to finish at 30-under or better. It was the 22nd career PGA Tour victory for Johnson and his second win of 2020. Johnson has reclaimed his spot as the number one golfer in the world going into the next round of the playoffs.
The top-70 in FedEx Cup points will advance to the BMW Championship this week in Illinois. With the field size being cut down by 55 players, the player pool this week is considerably lower. This will be a no-cut event with every golfer guaranteed four rounds at Olympia Fields. Players will be doing their best to make it into the top-30 in FedEx Cup points in order to advance to the Tour Championship next week.
An extremely strong field of 70 golfers will tee it up this week at Olympia Fields, Illinois. Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Jon Rahm ($11,000), Justin Thomas ($10,800), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600), and Rory McIlroy ($10,300) are the five highest-priced golfers on DraftKings. Due to the fact that every golfer gets four guaranteed rounds at Olympia Fields, it is important to differentiate your lineups as much as possible and leave plenty of money on the board to avoid duplicate lineups in GPP’s.
Here are the past five winners of the BMW Championship:
- 2019 Justin Thomas (-25)
- 2018 Keegan Bradley (-20)
- 2017 Marc Leishman (-23)
- 2016 Dustin Johnson (-23)
- 2015 Jason Day (-22)
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Course Preview
Olympia Fields Country Club is a classical, tree-lined golf course that will play much more difficult than TPC Boston a week ago. It hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open, where Jim Furyk won the tournament by finishing at 8-under. Only four golfers shot under-par for the week. While this week could indeed have more favorable scoring conditions, it’s no doubt that this par-70, 7366-yard course will play much more like a Major tournament.
The North course at Olympia Fields will play host to all four rounds at the BMW Championship. The track features mid-sized Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens that are said to be very contouring. There are only two Par 5s on the scorecard, and they both measure over 600 yards long. It won’t get too much easier on the Par 4s, as seven of them measure at least 450 yards. I expect a solid challenge for the golfers this week and no crazy 30-under final winning score on Sunday.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach (>175 yards)
- Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)
- Performance on Bentgrass/Poa Annua mixes
- Opportunities Gained
Recommended Plays
Jon Rahm ($11,000)
A T6 showing at the Northern Trust should be a catalyst for Rahm to go even better at Olympia Fields this week. The Spaniard has proven he can win at the most challenging golf courses that the PGA Tour has to offer, proven by his victory at Muirfield Village in July. Rahm led the field in strokes gained: off-the-tee last week, and his distance off the tee combined with his solid long irons should bode well for him in Illinois.
Justin Thomas ($10,800)
The winner of the BMW Championship in 2019 has failed to crack the top-10 in two consecutive weeks for the first time this season. We can credit some of that failure to a cold putter. Thomas lost over four strokes with the flat stick last week at TPC Boston. Over the last 50 rounds, Thomas ranks second in strokes gained on Par 4s that measure between 450-500 yards. I expect some positive regression for JT, as he hopes to heat up heading into the Tour Championship.
Daniel Berger ($9,700)
Berger continues to produce week after week. In his last 10 events, Berger has seven top-10s, including a first, second, and two third-place showings. He has the all-around game to put up a good score this week and be in contention on the final day. Berger currently ranks 12th in strokes gained: putting, and this should help him on these very challenging greens.
Scott Scheffler ($9,000)
Scheffler shot a 12-under round of 59 on Friday at the Wyndham Championship. His scoring upside is tremendous, and in a non-cut event, it makes sense to roll the dice this week. In the last 36 rounds, Scheffler ranks fifth in birdies-or-better gained. He is long and accurate off the tee, the distance on many of these holes shouldn’t hinder him this week.
Tyrell Hatton ($8,300)
The winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational bounced back last week and showed his scoring upside with a third-round score of 63. He has been exceptionally good in 2020 — he ranks fifth in approach, 28th in putting, and 15th in tee-to-green. He ranks in the top five in proximity between 175-200 yards, and he should have no problem with the long approach shots the golfers will face.
Matthew Wolff ($8,200)
The second-year Tour pro is heading into the second leg of the playoffs in some fine form. He has three top-25s in his last five outings, including an impressive T4 finish at the PGA Championship. Wolff currently ranks outside of the top-30 in the FedEx Cup standings, so he needs a good week to advance. The 21-year-old ranks fourth in opportunities gained over the last 36 rounds and will just need the putter to come through for him.
Kevin Na ($7,300)
Na is never an exciting DFS play, but his upside in a non-cut event is too much to pass up at this price. He rates out extremely well on difficult courses that are played on Bentgrass surfaces. In the last 36 rounds, Na ranks 15th in this department. He is also first in strokes gained: putting on Bentgrass/Poa Annua surfaces in the last 36 rounds. Na had rounds of 65 and 66 at the Northern Trust last week.
Mark Hubbard ($7,000)
Hubbard is another low-salary option who can easily pay off his price for your lineups. He has put up at least 89 DraftKings points in his last two outings, including his 15th-place finish at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago, where he put up 104. Hubbard ranks seventh in scoring on Par 4s between 450-500 yards, so Olympia Fields should suit him just fine. He also ranks 30th in strokes gained: putting in 2020.
Talor Gooch ($6,600)
Gooch cracked the top-70 thanks to some strong recent play heading into the playoffs. He has four top-25s in his last six outings and is coming off an 18th-place result at a loaded Northern Trust field last week. Gooch has a great combination of elite long irons and solid putting to navigate around Olympia Fields. With four guaranteed rounds this week, I like his chances to pay off his value in order to get a couple of high priced studs in your lineup.
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.