FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (9/20)

The NBA has a one-game slate for Sunday’s action in Orlando. There are plenty of FanDuel contests to enter tonight, so let’s take a look at some lineup possibilities with value plays, studs, fades, and more!

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Value Plays: Point Guard

 
Jamal Murray went off in Game 7 versus the Clippers to win the series, scoring 40 points on 15-of-26 (57.7%) shooting from the field. He drilled six three-pointers, most of the series and second-highest of the postseason (9). He’s averaged 22.6 points in the semifinals and 31.6 versus the Jazz in the first round. He and Jokic are two plays to consider for your captain spot if you’re pulling for Denver each game, and even on a restricted 29 minutes in Game 1 due to the blowout, he was still playing very well.

Rajon Rondo averaged 10.6 points, 7.0 assists, and 4.6 rebounds in the semifinals, his first five games back from injury. He double-doubled in Game 4 with 11 points and 10 rebounds, missing out on a triple-double by two boards. In Game 3, he scored 21 points and nine assists in a series-high 30 minutes. Rondo’s going to be instrumental off the bench in this series and already nearly double-doubled with seven points and nine assists in 22 minutes.

Alex Caruso played at least 22 minutes over the last five games and done well for the Lakers in the postseason, earned their trust. He’s scored double-digits in three-of-11 postseason games and 20 or more fantasy points four times. He only managed five points and four assists in Game 1, but should be more of an impact in Game 2.

Shooting Guard

 
Gary Harris played 31.0 minutes per game in the semifinals after coming back from an injury. He’s played well and scored 10.7 points along with 2.6 assists and 2.1 rebounds versus the Clippers. He scored a combined 30 points in the final two games and scored double digits in five of the last six games. He’s worth a shot as your previous selection on a short-slate.

Danny Green has only averaged eight and nine points per game in the first two rounds of the playoffs, playing below 30 minutes in eight-of-11 games. Even though he’s a starter, he hasn’t played enough minutes to increase his value in DFS, and he’s viewed as too far of a risk for me.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored double-digits in his past three games and seven-of-11 games in the postseason. He’s played eight or more games of 28-plus minutes, and he’s a high-risk player with scoring being his only contribution in DFS. 14.7 fantasy points were his series-high versus the Rockets, and that’s just not cutting it. He will try to replicate his postseason-high of 26.7 fantasy points in Game 2.

Small Forward

 
LeBron James went off in the first two rounds of the playoffs and he’s chasing his ninth NBA Finals appearance in 10 years. He’s simply not human and at his age, he’s still triple-doubling in the postseason in addition to being named All-NBA First Team. The King averaged a double-double in the semifinals versus the Rockets and a triple-double versus the Blazers in the first round. He posted 15 points, 12 assists, and six rebounds in Game 1, and only played 31 minutes. He’s my top choice for the MVP or STAR position in lineups and worth it.

Kyle Kuzma scored 11 or more points in the last four of the last five games overall. He’s only played 30 minutes in one-of-10 games in the entire postseason. He’s a high-risk in a one-game DFS slate, so he’s a pass for me, probably for the entire series.

Markieff Morris had a zero point and two-point game in the semifinals and opened the WCF up with nine points, one rebound, and one assist. He’s a high-risk player and off-and-on when it comes to his offensive production. He averaged 3.2 and 3.8 rebounds in the first two rounds of the postseason, not cutting it for a last-place throw into any DFS lineups.

Power Forward

 
Anthony Davis makes it hard to disregard as the top choice in your DFS lineups tonight. He can do it all and averaged over 29 points and nine rebounds in his four regular-season meetings with Denver. In the postseason overall, he’s averaged 27.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 34.9 minutes per game. He’s double-doubled in eight-of-10 games in the playoffs, and surely he will try to make it nine in Game 1.

Michael Porter Jr. scored double-digits in four-of-seven playoff games during the semifinals and seven-of-14 during the entire postseason. He’s been a pleasant surprise for the Nuggets, and he recorded his second double-double of the postseason with 14 points and 10 rebounds on an impressive 29 minutes. He’s worth the last utility spot in your lineup but comes with a slight risk.

Jerami Grant scored 24 or more fantasy points in two-of-seven games versus the Clippers, and he scored double-digits in four of his last eight games. Grant’s grabbed five rebounds or more in three of the past four games, and he’s played at least 30 minutes in three-of-four. He’s another high-risk play with only five slots on the slate.

Center

 
Nikola Jokic is the best center left in the playoffs, and he’s undoubtedly going to cause problems in this series. The Joker averaged a double-double of 24.4 points and 13.4 rebounds in the seven-game semifinals, plus 6.4 assists. In the first round, he scored 26.3 points and recorded 8.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Jokic has double-doubled in nine-of-15 games after his 21 points, six rebounds, and two assists in Game 1.

Dwight Howard only played in two games for 16 minutes, and Javale McGee in four games for 31 minutes versus the Rockets. Howard opened up Game 1 with 13 points and three rebounds in Game 1 compared to McGee’s 11 minutes and no points, rebounds, or assists. I can’t trust a Lakers center even in a series where the pace suits them more.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• LeBron James (LAL), $16,000: James has put up incredible numbers with a triple-double in the first round and a double-double in the semifinals. He double-doubled in Game 1, so expect more of the same in Game 2.
• Anthony Davis (LAL), $15,500: Davis recorded five-straight games of 51 or more fantasy points before his 29.2 effort in Game 5 of the semifinals and made it six-straight after Game 1 of the WCF. 
• Nikola Jokic (DEN), $15,000: Jokic has recorded 48 or more fantasy points in six-of-seven games and 62 or more in the last two-of-three games.
• Jamal Murray (DEN), $13,000: Murray has had plenty of instant classics this season, and tied for a team-high 21 points on seven-of-12 shooting.
• Rajon Rondo (LAL), $11,000: Rondo was in his bag for a few games, and coming off the bench, I think he’s worth one of the final utility spots, especially after seven points and nine assists in Game 1.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Markieff Morris (LAL), $9,500: Morris recorded three games of 10 or fewer points and played only 22-24 minutes in his last four-of-five games.
• Danny Green (LAL), $9,000: Green has only cracked 20 fantasy points in four-of-11 postseason games with the Lakers.
• Dwight Howard (LAL), $8,000: Howard hasn’t played enough to be streamed, no matter how many superstars you can find into your lineup.
• Javale McGee (LAL), $7,000: Read, rinse, and repeat the line above for McGee as well.
• Paul Millsap (DEN), $9,500: Millsap’s role with the Nuggets depends much on Grant and Porter’s production. Lately, they’ve both outplayed and outproduced Millsap.

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.