Dak Prescott went down for the season last Sunday. That’s awful news for a player who bet on himself by taking a one-year deal, and I hope that the Dallas Cowboys do right by him once he gets healthy.
His absence will create a huge opportunity in fantasy football leagues, however. The Cowboys are attempting a league-high 47.2 passes per game — that’s 5.8 more than the next-best Bengals (41.4). For context, that’s the same gap as the one between the Bengals and the 11th-ranked Panthers (36.5)!
There’s a chance that the Cowboys modify their scheme in Prescott’s absence, but their poor defensive play will continue forcing them into pass-heavy game scripts. As a result, Dalton enters the QB1 conversation as a volume-driven option.
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Player Profile
Dalton has been in the NFL for 10 years. Fantasy-wise, he peaked with a QB5 finish in 2013. Since then, he finished as the QB18, QB18*, QB13, QB17, QB25*, and QB25*. Asterisks indicate partial seasons; he was on a QB1 pace in 2015 before he injured his thumb. That said, the traditional pocket passer averaged only 34 attempts per game in Cincinnati, which is a far cry from what he’ll be doing in Dallas.
What do these numbers tell us about Dalton? Let’s chart his season-long averages in fantasy points per game against his average attempts per game:
Running some quick numbers on Dalton tonight. Here's the career trendline of his season-long ATT/G and fantasy PPG averages.
If Dallas continues to throw the ball 47.2 times per game, he should score 19.7 PPG each week.
That would make him the QB7/QB8 by PPG scoring thus far. pic.twitter.com/BK0MUDQjE8
— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) October 13, 2020
If Dalton hasn’t lost a step as a passer, then he should be a good bet to return low-end QB1 numbers. Also, it’s worth noting that Cincinnati never had a receiving corps as deep as the one Dalton now has in Dallas.
State of the Offense
As I stated in the lede, Dallas is attempting a ton of passes per game, and their poor defensive play will force them to keep passing. But it’s worth noting that they’ve remained efficient despite their absurd number of passing attempts. The team has a completion percentage of 68.2%, better than all but one of the six other franchises with 185-plus total passes.
How much of the credit belongs to Prescott? It’s hard to quantify. His receivers caught almost all of his on-target passes (69.7%), although they also dropped 5% of his throws, which is the seventh-worst rate in the league.
That said, it’s easy to get excited about Dallas’ bevy of offensive talent. Yardage-wise, CeeDee Lamb (433) and Amari Cooper (424) both rank in the top 10. Michael Gallup (348) isn’t far behind, either, and he ranks 18th. Any signal-caller tossing them the ball has QB1 upside.
Dalton’s Outlook
I think Dalton has the talent and the personnel to finish as a low-end QB1 in most games. The Cowboys play the Cardinals (11th-fewest PPG to QBs) and the Football Team (fifth-most) over the next two weeks, so he doesn’t have a must-fade matchup on the horizon, and he should be a reliable contributor in both weeks.
If you just lost Prescott in a 1QB league, Dalton is a great replacement who you can get off the waiver wire. If you’re in a 2QB league, Dalton has league-winning upside — finding someone capable of consistently producing QB1 numbers on waivers is nearly impossible, but that’s exactly what he could do in this offense.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
