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StatHero NFL Lineup Advice: Week 10

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Nov 14, 2020

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Aggressive Lineup: Buffalo Bills

I follow a simple formula when selecting the team for my aggressive lineup: choose the team from the game with the highest projected point total. This week, I’m rolling with the Buffalo Bills, as their game against the Cardinals is projected for 56 points. While the Cardinals would also be a smart pick, I wrote about them last week, so I’ll roll with Buffalo here. They’re 2.5-point underdogs at the moment, giving them an implied total of 26.75 points, and most of that should be concentrated within their passing game.

MVP: Stefon Diggs
Diggs is everything you want in an MVP. Well, almost. He has a convincing team lead in target share (29.2%), and he leads the NFL in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s lagging a bit behind in receiving touchdowns, as he’s only scored three times. The only concern with Diggs is that the Bills haven’t often featured him in the red zone. That said, Diggs has caught fewer than six passes in a game just once all year, and he’s a reliable high-floor option with a gunslinger under center and a high ceiling. He should be a safe play at MVP.

QB: Josh Allen

FLEX A: Zack Moss
Moss has looked fantastic since his return from injury. The Bills may not love to use Diggs in the red zone, but they do frequently feature Moss close to the goal line — he has 15 rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, good for 2.5 per game, and he’s already scored four times this season. Suppose the Bills are close to the end zone. In that case, you can be confident that either Moss or Josh Allen is about to score — the duo has combined for 72.2% of Buffalo’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line and all but one of their touchdowns. That reliability makes Buffalo a strong team to target.

FLEX B: John Brown
It’s been an up-and-down season for Brown. After starting out hot, he got hurt in Week 3, and he didn’t return to form until his Week 9 game against the Seahawks. He caught eight of his 11 targets in Buffalo’s upset victory, and that’s the kind of high-volume role you want to feature in your lineups. Even if he doesn’t see that many looks in Week 10, he scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 and 2, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find paydirt once again.

FLEX C: Gabriel Davis
You have two choices with your third flex. You can either A) play it safe with Devin Singletary, B) play it safe with Cole Beasley, or C) take a shot on Gabriel Davis. I would go with option C here because the “safer” alternatives aren’t really that safe. Last week, Beasley was only targeted three times, and most of his best games came when John Brown was sidelined. Meanwhile, Singletary only scored when Moss was hurt, so you’re just punting for yards and receptions if you take him. Unlike his higher-floor teammates, Davis has some pop, and he’s flashed it even alongside Brown. He caught four of his five targets for 70 yards and a score last week, and while he’s definitely a bust risk (he failed to catch a pass the week before), his upside is worth some risk.

Contrarian Lineup: Los Angeles Rams

When choosing my contrarian plays, the same rule applies: look at projected point totals. That said, I also try to factor in how poorly a defense is playing against a specific position to anchor my play around an MVP. The Rams and Seahawks are projected to combine for the second-most points on the slate (54.5), and since the Seahawks are abysmal against slot receivers, I’ll shape this lineup around Los Angeles’ slot wideout.

MVP: Cooper Kupp
Kupp has played 253 of his snaps (53.9%) from the slot this year, and the Rams should feature him against Seattle’s shoddy secondary. The Seahawks give up the most PPR points per game to the position (63.2), and there’s a 16-point gap between them and the next-worst Titans (47.2). That’s a larger gap than the one between the Titans and the fourth-best Chiefs (31.9)! Kupp is averaging 8.9 targets per game this year, has a team-best target share (26.1%), and was just targeted 20 times against the Dolphins in Week 8. He should be in for another high-volume role against Seattle as the Rams try to keep up.

QB: Jared Goff

FLEX A: Robert Woods
While I like Kupp the most, you have to target the other Rams wideouts. Woods isn’t far behind Kupp in target share (19.9%), and he’s hauled in a team-best four receiving touchdowns (he’s also scored twice on the ground). I wouldn’t fault you for putting Woods in as your MVP over Kupp, but the slot wideout arguably should have more touchdowns than he does — Kupp and Woods have the same number of targets inside the 10-yard line (2), Woods just happened to catch one while Kupp failed to catch either. I would rather feature Kupp’s floor at MVP, especially since Woods doesn’t have that much more scoring-based upside.

FLEX B: Josh Reynolds
I’m committing to Los Angeles’ wideouts here, so I will include the highest-upside option, too: Josh Reynolds. Sure, his target share (14%) isn’t great, but it’s the third-highest in this offense, and he leads the team in yards per reception (14.6), average depth of target (12.5), and total air yards (486). Reynolds has eight deep targets thus far, good for one per game, and he should be able to cash in on his limited looks against Seattle.

FLEX C: Darrell Henderson
As much as I love the Rams’ passing game, you can’t leave out Henderson. He has four touchdowns on the year, and he was averaging 14.7 rushing attempts per game in the three games before Week 8. Henderson leads the Rams in carries inside the 20-yard line (28, 56% team share), 10-yard line (18, 52.9%), and five-yard line (7, 50%). He’s a reliable goal-line back, and including Henderson alongside Goff and Woods gives you a safe chunk of floor.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.