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Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On DraftKings (Week 11)

Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On DraftKings (Week 11)

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 11.

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RK PLAYER OPP STAT O/U LINE PROJ. DIFF PICK
1 Justin Jefferson (MIN – WR) vs. DAL Receiving Yards

 57.5

74.8 17.3

o57.5

2 Chase Claypool (PIT – WR) @ JAX Receiving Yards

 45.5

62.2 16.7

o45.5

3 Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT – WR) @ JAX Receiving Yards

 51.5

66 14.5

051.5

4 Dalvin Cook (MIN – RB) vs. DAL Receiving Yards

 15.5

29.7 14.2

o15.5

5 Adam Thielen (MIN – WR) vs. DAL Receiving Yards

 54.5

68.3 13.8

o54.5

6 Michael Gallup (DAL – WR) @ MIN Receiving Yards

 42.5

53.1 10.6

o42.5

7 Diontae Johnson (PIT – WR) @ JAX Receiving Yards

 56.5

65.5 9.0

o56.5

8 Amari Cooper (DAL – WR) @ MIN Receiving Yards

 57.5

66.3 8.8

o57.5

9 Ben Roethlisberger (PIT – QB) @ JAX Passing Yards

 277.5

283.2 5.7

o277.5

10 Dalton Schultz (DAL – TE) @ MIN Receiving Yards

 33.5

38.8 5.3

o33.5

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
The Minnesota Vikings offense as a whole should be in for a huge day facing Dallas’ 32nd-ranked scoring defense. After a slow start to the season, rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson is becoming more of a focal point. He has surpassed this 57.5 projected yardage total in five of his last seven games and has seen double-digit targets in two of his last four. Jefferson has 14 receptions of 20 yards this season (tied for second among all receivers) and 6.7 YAC (tied for fourth among 68 qualified receivers). Thus, he should not need to see anywhere close to double-digit targets to post more than 57.5 yards.

Chase Claypool (PIT – WR): OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
Since becoming a full-time starter following their bye week in Week 4, Chase Claypool has at least 42 yards receiving in five of his last six games. He now faces a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks 30th in the league allowing an average of 283.9 YPG. It would behoove the Pittsburgh coaching staff to get Claypool the ball in space. His 6.3 YAC ranks eighth-best among qualified wide receivers while Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 5.6 YAC to opposing wide receivers which is the second-worst mark in the league. Claypool has seen at least nine targets in three straight games, and he will surely exceed this projection if he comes anywhere close to that number in this one.

Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT – WR): OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster is yet another Steelers wide receiver projected to have a big day. He has at least 67 yards receiving in each of his last four games and has seen seven or more targets in three of those games. His 322 receiving yards since Week 7 are the sixth most among all wide receivers. Ben Roethlisberger is becoming more and more dependent on Smith-Schuster, especially on clutch third-down situations. Smith-Schuster’s 22 receptions on third down this season are tied for the most in the league. Look for Roethlisberger to lean on JuJu often, especially if the game remains tight.

Dalvin Cook (MIN – RB): OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has at least 16 yards receiving in each of his last six games. Why then would his projection be set for slightly under this mark against the Cowboys? Cook has 82 rushing attempts over the last three games, so perhaps Mike Zimmer and the Vikings coaching staff lighten the load as far as carries go, but utilize Cook in the screen game. In a game that could be tight throughout, Dalvin Cook should have plenty of opportunities through the air to make it seven straight games with at least 16 yards receiving.

Adam Thielen (MIN – WR): OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards
The Minnesota Vikings have won three straight games, with the clear formula being to establish Dalvin Cook on the ground and play solid defense. Thus, these victories have come at the expense of Adam Thielen’s receiving yards as he has not topped 43 yards in that span. Thielen has averaged just over five targets per game over the last three games but is still where Kirk Cousins looks first in the red zone as evidenced by his two touchdowns on Monday night against the Bears. From a fantasy perspective, Thielen’s 12.0 fantasy PPG ranks sixth-best among qualified wide receivers. Thus, there is hope that Thielen can once again produce from a yardage perspective even if he gets held out of the end zone this week.

Michael Gallup (DAL – WR): OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards
Though Dallas’s offense has suffered in the last two games with Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert under center, wide receiver Michael Gallup has still managed to put up decent numbers. He has averaged 48.5 receiving yards over the last two games, which is a dramatic improvement from most of the totals he had with Dak Prescott under center. Gallup takes aim at Minnesota’s 27th-ranked pass defense that allows 267.9 YPG through the air. With Andy Dalton back under center, Dallas’s offense should look better than it has over the past two games, and Gallup should once again be a beneficiary.

Diontae Johnson (PIT – WR): OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards
Diontae Johnson makes the third Pittsburgh wide receiver whose projection seems too low this week. Johnson has at least 77 yards receiving in each of his last three games and has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four as well. Johnson’s 6.6 YAC this season ranks sixth-best, so you can be sure Mike Tomlin and the Steelers coaching staff will design plays to get him the ball in space. In addition, he has two catches of 40+ yards since Week 7, so he may only need one big play to help surpass this total.

Amari Cooper (DAL – WR): OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
Like teammate Michael Gallup. Amari Cooper should also be in for a big day against the Vikings’ defense. More so than Gallup, Cooper should benefit from Andy Dalton being back on the field, as he had at least seven targets and 79 yards in each game Dalton has been healthy. With the Viking’s cornerbacks being vulnerable to No. 1 wide receivers this year, Cooper is in a prime position to go way over this projected total.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT – QB): OVER 277.5 Passing Yards
We have written about three of Ben Roethlisberger’s teammates in this article, so it makes sense that we love the over on his passing yards against Jacksonville. The Pittsburgh offense has been pass-happy of late, as Roethlisberger has attempted at least 42 passes in three of his last four games. A similar game script should be in order against the Jaguars’ 30th-ranked pass defense, so Big Ben should improve on his 251.8 YPG so far this season.

Dalton Schultz (DAL – TE): OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz has seen at least seven targets and has posted at least 48 receiving yards in each of the last two games. The Cowboys are seven-point underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings, which means they should be passing a lot in a negative game script. Schultz’s 383 yards ranks sixth and 35 receptions rank eighth among all tight ends this season, and quarterback Andy Dalton should be looking his way over the middle of the field quite often against the Vikings secondary.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week partner-arrow


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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