Here’s a look at rankings from our most accurate fantasy football experts of the 2020 season.
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Lamar Jackson (BAL)
There were highs and lows to Jackson’s performance on Tuesday night, but in the end, he came out of it with 25.68 fantasy points, which is all you could really ask for. He’s now rushed for at least 51 yards in nine of his last 10 games, while scoring a rushing touchdown in four of them. He’s also completed 70-plus percent of his passes in three of the last four games, so maybe we’re trending in the right direction at the right time. Now onto a matchup with the Browns, a team he’s played extremely well against over his time as a starter. In their last three matchups, he’s thrown for 275/3, 238/3, and 247/3. Good, right? He’s also rushed for 66, 103, and 45 yards in those games, giving you massive fantasy performances. Despite playing in three games that involved extremely high winds and/or rain, the Browns have allowed 25 passing touchdowns this year, the fourth-highest number in the NFL. Before factoring in any rushing whatsoever, they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through the air alone. Jackson was one of four quarterbacks who’ve rushed for at least 34 yards against the Browns this year, so it’s not like he won’t produce there (he always does). Jackson should be considered a solid QB1 with a rock-solid floor in this matchup.
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Ryan ran into a Saints defense that’s been playing lights out defense over the second half of the season, which kept him under 14 fantasy points for the third straight game. The good news is that his pass-catchers are healthy. Can he get back on track in Week 14 in what’s perceived as a great matchup against the Chargers? They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but is the matchup as good as it seems? The 5.79 percent touchdown-rate they’ve allowed is the third-highest in football, but we know touchdowns are volatile, right? The much stickier stat is the 6.73 yards per pass attempt, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in football. There’s been no quarterback who’s averaged more than 7.17 yards per attempt against them since back in Week 4. If you were to remove the rushing production that every team has allowed to quarterbacks, the Chargers would be the 14th-best matchup, not the sixth-best. The 236 yards and six touchdowns they’ve allowed on the ground certainly skews the numbers. The good news is that this game will be played indoors and both teams rank top-six in total plays per game, so there should be plenty of opportunity and volume for Ryan to deliver a decent floor. Because of volume, nine quarterbacks have totaled at least 16.0 fantasy points against them. Ryan isn’t a surefire QB1 or anything but he should be in the high-end QB2 conversation.
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Want to hear something crazy? If you were to remove rushing totals and break down quarterbacks strictly as passers, Mayfield has averaged the seventh-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt. Of course, that doesn’t matter all that much when you’re averaging just 27.3 pass attempts per game. The matchup against the Titans, yeah, that was a good one. He took full advantage of the fact that they don’t pressure the quarterback. The matchup against the Ravens is not that type of matchup. They have lacked pressure lately due to all the injuries/sicknesses they’ve had, but they should be getting back to near full strength. If they can get pressure to Mayfield, he falters. Of the 40 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back 100-plus times, Mayfield’s 32.0 QB Rating when under pressure ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. If they let him stand tall in the pocket, his passer rating skyrockets to 115.9. Back in Week 1, he threw a season-high 39 passes against the Ravens, though they netted just 21 completions, 189 yards, and one touchdown. Mayfield’s top three fantasy performances this year came against the Bengals, Titans, and Jaguars. Those aren’t exactly tough matchups. Those are also the only three times he’s topped 15.58 fantasy points. You shouldn’t consider Mayfield a strong option even in 2QB formats.
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