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Don’t Draft These 9 Overvalued Players (Fantasy Baseball)

Feb 25, 2021

Few things harm your fantasy season more than having the misfortune of selecting an overvalued player, especially in the early rounds. While these guys aren’t bad and some may not particularly be busts (athletes who end up completely bottoming out, producing much less than their expected floor), there are often other players that have either a higher floor, ceiling, or better track record who could be had later than the names our featured analysts are about to share with you. Remember, most of these performers have special attributes or have delivered stellar production at some point that has fueled their lofty average draft positions (ADP) and would make good additions to your squad at the right price as a result. Just be aware of what you may sacrifice by taking these athletes at their ADP and what you might be missing out on later in your draft.

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Q1. What one hitter stands out as being the most overvalued based on consensus ADP and why?

Randy Arozarena (OF – TB): ADP – 40th Hitter & 60th Overall
“Arozarena is everybody’s heroic darling from his historic playoff outburst but fading him in 2021 fantasy is a good path to follow. The hype is understandable as he simply was a postseason beast, but in his second year in the bigs, pitchers will adjust as he has issues with off-speed pitches and really struggles against righties. He has a 28.9% K rate overall, but when facing a righty, that elevates to 37.7%, which is worrisome. Power and speed are there, but there are no more cookies for the ROY contender as everyone will be out to silence him. Many will reach in drafts, overpaying for his current ADP.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

Randy Arozarena at 60 overall is too rich for my blood. Sure, his incredible playoff run and strong finish to the season were both encouraging. However, he simply doesn’t have the track record of a Michael Conforto, Charlie Blackmon, or Nick Castellanos going 10-20 picks after him. I’m all for taking risks, but not for taking unnecessary ones where the player’s value is based mostly on a small sample size of his best work.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC): ADP – 20th Hitter & 32nd Overall
“In 2020, Mondesi was at or near the bottom of the league in expected batting average, slugging, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and more. It is not even like 2020 was an outlier for him. Mondesi continues to get by on his ridiculous speed, but is truly in the bottom 10th percentile or so of starting MLB hitters. While six HRs and 24 SBs in just 50 games look super juicy, I am not going to be the guy drafting one of the league’s worst hitters in the third round.”
– Jason Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Cavan Biggio (2B/3B/OF – TOR): ADP – 39th Hitter & 59th Overall
“Biggio is being overvalued in my opinion. I get that second base is fairly shallow and he will likely add third base to his eligibility, but what are we doing drafting him in the fifth round? Biggio to me is a middling average hitter with maybe 20/15 type power/speed numbers. He takes a few too many walks (15.5% rate) to rack up enough home runs and RBIs for me to take him over players in the same ADP range getting you 25-30 HRs and nearly 100 RBIs. You can get the same production as Biggio from players four or more rounds later, even at the 2B position.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Tim Anderson (SS – CWS): ADP – 33rd Hitter & 48th Overall
“I can’t argue with anyone taking Anderson as the 33rd hitter (and 48th player overall), but I’m not going to be the one to do it. Anderson has had two very good seasons in a row, but I just can’t buy that he’s a .331 hitter as he has been the past two seasons (and his expected batting average is about 40 points lower). His walk rate is well below par (bottom six percent of the league the last two seasons), his quality of contact is average at best, and he’s the type of hitter whose home run production could slip significantly with the deadened ball. He’ll still help out in stolen bases, but with the average and power likely to regress, I’d rather let someone else have him.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Q2. What starting pitcher stands out as being the most overvalued based on consensus ADP and why?

Zach Plesac (CLE): ADP – 25th Starting Pitcher & 78th Overall
“Plesac had a tremendous shortened 2020 season, racking up over one K per inning, a walk rate under three, an ERA of just 2.28, and a WHIP of just 0.80 across eight starts. Impressive work, but I am VERY wary of that success carrying over into 2021. Not only was his ERA a full run better than his FIP (3.39), but he also averaged one K per inning across a season for the first time in his minor and major league career, had the lowest BABIP of his career, and stranded runners greater than 90% of the time. On top of that, Plesac was just a 12th round draft pick and he never cracked any MLB or Cleveland Indians prospect ranking list. Easy pass at ADP.”
– Jason Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Stephen Strasburg (WSH): ADP – 24th Starting Pitcher & 70th Overall
“Strasburg is a bit overrated to me. Don’t get me wrong; he is talented when on the mound, but actually being on the mound has been a concern with him most of his career. He has only thrown 175+ innings in four of his 11 major league seasons. Then last year he goes out with something called tunnel neuritis. Nobody really knows how much this will affect him moving forward or if it will come back fully. There simply is not enough history of this injury to know. Maybe I’m being too cautious here, but I’d rather somebody else take the chance at his current ADP.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Dinelson Lamet (SD): ADP – 28th Starting Pitcher & 85th Overall
“I won’t be going anywhere near Lamet as the 28th starting pitcher off the board, and probably wouldn’t look at him until another 10 starters were gone. Even if I had faith that he could repeat his success, which I don’t, the injury risk is far too great. The terms ‘elbow injury’ and ‘platelet-rich plasma injection’ are about as bad a combination as there is, and Lamet’s positive reports on his health do nothing to assuage my concerns. That’s especially true because Lamet’s success came from his slider (.141 wOBA against), which he threw 53.4% of the time last year and which he hasn’t thrown yet this spring. It’s impossible to see Lamet being able to live with that slider usage and remain healthy all year, so I’d rather avoid the headache and take the handful of pitchers ranked below him in ECR.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Kenta Maeda (MIN): ADP – 17th Starting Pitcher & 53rd Overall
“Maeda threw 153.2 innings in 2019, his most since 2016 (175.2), and last year spun 66.2 in the shortened season. The Dodgers limited his innings in the past and the Twins want to let him loose, but father time creeps to the soon 33-year-old and a full workload will hamper productivity on the hill. A fourth-to-fifth round pick would need to be used to secure him and that is just too pricy on draft day as there are so many quality arms you can acquire for much less.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

Trevor Bauer (LAD): ADP – 4th Starting Pitcher & 14th Overall
“It has to be Bauer for me. I know he’s the reigning Cy Young, but did we forget his near six ERA in the second half of 2019? Or his dramatic home/away splits during his Cleveland days? His focus on his ‘brand’ is also a valid concern. Bauer has consistently been inconsistent over his career and I refuse to pay the premium for him at his zenith, neglecting the many years of roller-coaster production. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for giving us their overrated players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.

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