The PGA Tour leaves Phoenix and the rowdy fans at the Waste Management Open to head to the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links. There is only one water hazard at this event – the Pacific Ocean. Even though this is one of the weaker fields we’ll see (no top-10 players now that DJ has withdrawn), the views will be breathtaking. The golf should still be exciting, with several up-and-comers going against some of the established pros with great course history.
FanDuel has six golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Patrick Cantlay ($11,900) is the highest-priced golfer, with Daniel Berger close behind at $11,600. Paul Casey ($11,400), Will Zalatoris ($11,200), and Jordan Spieth ($11,100) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest priced golfers.
Work at having a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a season. However, from week-to-week, significant variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut. For instance, Daniel Berger, Jason Day, Harris English, Gary Woodland, and Rickie Fowler all missed the cut last week.
Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!
Find out which stats matter the most for PGA DFS
Tournament Notes
- The event has been played at Pebble Beach since 1947 and used to be known as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am.
- In the past, it was played as a pro-am with a three-course rotation. There is no pro-am this year, and only the Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach courses will be used. Monterey Peninsula will not be utilized this week.
- Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par 72 course measuring 7,051. Spyglass Hill GC is a par 72, measuring 7,041. Spyglass Hill will not have shot tracker.
- The poa greens are much smaller than the Tour average (3,500-4,000 square feet).
- 156 golfers are scheduled to tee it up with the top 65 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
- The Par 3, seventh hole is the shortest hole on the PGA Tour, measuring just 106 yards.
- The average winning score has been 18-below par, and the average cut line has been even par.
- Previous winners of the event that are scheduled to play this week include Nick Taylor (2020), Phil Mickelson (2019, 2012, 2007, 2005, 1998), Ted Potter, jr. (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Vaughn Taylor (2016), Brandt Snedeker (2015, 2013), Jimmy Walker (2014), D.A. Points (2011), and Dustin Johnson (2010, 2009).
- The fairways at each course are generous, and the percentage of fairways hit is better than the Tour average. Additionally, we see the fewest amount of 300-yard drives at this event, which leads to the event having the shortest average drive of any on the PGA Tour.
- The 12 par 5 holes typically have a birdie or better rate of more than 35%.
Course Fit & Key Statistics
Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Cameron Tringale, Daniel Berger, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, Peter Malnati, Brian Harman, Will Zalatoris, and Doug Ghim.
Short Game
The greens are among the smallest on the PGA Tour, and even the best golfers will miss more greens than usual. Having a strong short game will put golfers in a position to be more successful. In looking at both short and long-term form, the ten golfers with the best short game (in ranked order) are Patrick Cantlay, Andrew Putnam, Peter Malnati, Daniel Berger, James Hahn, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Cameron Tringale, Bill Haas, and Brandt Snedeker.
Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Paul Casey, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Francesco Molinari, Max Homa, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, and Matt Jones. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Patton Kizzire has the longest streak of PGA Tour made cuts with nine. Matt Jones and Patrick Cantlay have eight. Will Zalatoris and Cameron Tringale are the only other golfers with at least five straight made cuts on the PGA Tour.
Course History
I tend to emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at specific courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Streelman, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor, Scott Stallings, Chez Reavie, Matt Jones, Scott Piercy, and Vaughn Taylor. Jason Day has four straight top-five finishes, and Phil Mickelson has three consecutive top-five finishes.
Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are useful to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Patrick Cantlay (No. 11), Daniel Berger (No. 15), Paul Casey (No. 17), Jason Day (No. 48), Will Zalatoris (No. 49), Si Woo Kim (No. 51), Kevin Streelman (No. 59), Adam Long (No. 62), Rickie Fowler (No. 63), and Chez Reavie (No. 67).
Favorite $11,000+ Plays
Patrick Cantlay ($11,900)
A couple of weeks ago at the American Express, Jon Rahm withdrew, leaving Cantlay as the highest priced golfer. Cantlay proceeded to finish T2. He mainly plays big events with stacked fields. Other than his runner-up at the AmEx, he was T13 at the Tournament of Champions, T17 at the Masters, and won the ZOZO. He is very likely to finish in the top five, which is hard to say for anyone else. I like his consistency and his upside. I will be overweight on him this week.
Will Zalatoris ($11,200)
Could this be the week that he finally breaks through for his first win on the PGA Tour? He has a top-10 finish in half of his previous eight starts. He was a “disappointing” T17 last week in a stacked field. In the last 24 rounds played, he ranks second in this field for total strokes gained. I am also planning on playing quite a bit of Jason Day ($11,000) with his great event history, but his recent form has been bad, and so he doesn’t make the cut for these core plays.
Favorite $10,000 Plays
Francesco Molinari ($10,900)
The former world’s fifth-ranked golfer may just be on the comeback. He might be ranked outside the OWGR’s top-100, but he has two straight top-ten finishes, plus a T15 at the Houston Open. He just might be back to his old self, coming in with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts. Combine that with a short course against a weak field, and he could have a nice week.
Sam Burns ($10,500)
In the last 24 rounds played, he ranks seventh in fantasy scoring and eighth in total strokes gained in this field. He has tremendous upside but struggles to put four rounds together. He finished T22 last week at the WMPO and T18 the week before at the Farmers. He missed the cut at the AmEx in his first action in more than two months but shot a 66 on Friday. Only Cantlay rates out better in my customized stat model than Burns.
Kevin Streelman ($10,400)
I like Streelman, but I am afraid he will be higher-owned than he should be based on his tournament history. He is a solid golfer, but this price is pretty high. With that being said, he’ll be a strong option for my single-entry and five-max lineups. He was runner-up here last year, giving him his third straight top-10 finish and his fifth straight top-20 finish. His form is average, but it’s better than last year when he came in, having missed four out of five cuts. He absolutely likes this course! He also had four top-10 finishes in the 2020 calendar year. Other 10K golfers I will be considering are Cameron Davis ($10,600) and Max Homa ($10,100)
Favorite $9,000 Plays
Cameron Tringale ($9,900)
Tringale ranks third in my customized stat model and has back-to-back top-20 finishes. He does a little bit of everything on the golf course but can also get hot with the putter. He has shown some upside with third-place finishes at last summer’s 3M Open and this Fall’s RSM. He ranks fifth in this field for total strokes gained in the last 24 rounds. He is also one of only five golfers in this field to have a current PGA cut streak of at least five events.
Matt Jones ($9,700)
Only Patton Kizzire has made more PGA cuts in a row than Jones’ eight. He has a T4 at Bermuda and a T11 at Sony during that time, so there is some upside to his game. He is also a good putter, and this course tends to reward good putters. He finished T5 here last year, which was his fourth made cut in the last five years. He also had a T11 in 2016.
Patton Kizzire ($9,100)
He has the longest made cut streak in this field with nine events. He is also a great putter with a strong around the green game. His price is too low for a guy that is playing this well lately. This course is more suited to his game than the last two weeks. During his streak, he has a T7 at the Sony and a T10 at the RSM. I absolutely love the 9K range and will have several other players in my MME player pool, including Brian Harman ($9,900), James Hahn ($9,600), Matthew NeSmith ($9,600), Peter Malnati ($9,400), Harold Varner ($9,200), and Doug Ghim ($9,000). These guys are not normal considerations. Each of them could easily have been written up. I will be heavy on all of these golfers.
Favorite $8,000 Plays
Andrew Putnam ($8,700)
This is not necessarily a safe pick, but he was T7 last week in Phoenix and was T21 at the AmEx. He is really good around the greens and with his flat stick. He is one of those kinds of players that could “come out of nowhere” to win this event. He was T38 the last time he played this event in 2019.
Jim Furyk ($8,600)
In his last 11 events worldwide, he has seven top-15 finishes, including two wins. Granted, those were on the Champions Tour but remember that this is a weak field in which you don’t have to be a bomber to do well. Other 8K golfers that I may consider are Scott Stallings ($8,800), Michael Thompson ($8,700), Bo Hoag ($8,600), Scott Piercy ($8,600), Stewart Cink ($8,600), and Mark Hubbard ($8,500).
Favorite $7,000 Plays
There is nobody in this range that I plan on playing unless it is a dart throw in my MME builds. Some of those I might consider are Chase Seiffert ($7,700), Brian Gay ($7,600), Akshay Bhatia ($7,400), Aaron Baddeley ($7,400), Rob Oppenheim ($7,300), and K.J. Choi ($7,000).
Check out the FREE betting guide for the AT&T Pebble Beach at BettingPros
Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to a more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup — to learn more.
Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.