The deeper we go into draft season, the easier it is to become swayed by recent action. Whether these biases are formed because of preseason play or breaking news, it’s always important to zoom out and view the big picture. Here, we should always ask, “Where did this player’s draft stock begin?”
I specifically wanted to write this particular column because I had also written a previous iteration. I touched on the players whose FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and Average Draft Position (ADP) showed an imbalance in early February. Therefore, in addition to noting which players have a similar imbalance in the middle of March, I will highlight anyone of note that was also mentioned in the previous article.
Ultimately, the best way to utilize this information is to gauge the validity of either the shift — from one article to the next — or the imbalance itself. For example, “Is this player being drafted earlier than the ECR suggests because of hype, or is there a roster-building purpose?” As I list players, I will attempt to answer any similar questions that follow the same premise.
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Note: The following ECR and ADP were taken on March 13.
Observations
Just like we saw in early February, one of the players in the first 15 picks with a large discrepancy between ECR and ADP is Trevor Story. This is almost certainly due to how fantasy managers draft their teams. Shortstop is loaded, and, in the heat of the moment during a draft, it’s forgivable to allow a player at a deep position to fall a few picks. The more interesting part? That Story fell in both ECR and ADP from February. It’s possible that the Nolan Arenado trade from Colorado is only now being factored into Story’s fantasy value.
Like the early February snapshot, the vast majority of players who rank better in ECR than ADP are hitters. I filtered out anyone with a “gap” of two or less in the first 50 or so players, and, according to the list shown above, the first 28 players are batters. 28! Once again, in asking the question of validity and why this is the case, it’s driven by the premium that starting pitchers carry during an actual draft. Essentially, when comparing pitchers to hitters, it’s risky to rely solely on ECR, as everyone will look like an overpay in the end.
Looking to specific players in the top-100 of ECR, Nelson Cruz claims the title of “ECR Likes Most.” The gap is currently a whopping 29. Why? It’s probably due to the fantasy manager’s biases against both Cruz’s age and utility-only designation. Experts see it differently and are simply buying the numbers. If I stretch the list to include the top-150 of ECR as shown above, then Josh Donaldson takes the lead with a gap of 37. Donaldson is eligible at 3B, so his ADP drop is probably tied to his injury history.
One of the most interesting players on this list is Javier Baez. He is the epitome of a bounceback candidate after a pitiful 2020 campaign, but there is a clear split between fantasy managers and experts. Those who are drafting simply aren’t buying Baez until he falls to them, while experts have him ranked in the top-60. Clearly, one camp will be right, but it’s nice to know that you probably won’t have to pay extra to land Baez on your team.
Baez isn’t the only player getting more respect from the ECR than ADP coming off a forgettable season. Kris Bryant and Austin Meadows are getting the same treatment. One name fights this trend, however, and actually put together a potential breakout year in 2020. The problem? It happened in the postseason. Randy Arozarena doesn’t see the same large drop-off as some of the other players listed here, but he is being drafted a handful of spots after his ECR ranking. Experts are buying the breakout. At least, slightly more than those drafting.
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Observations
Here’s the easiest observation anyone reading this column could make: if hitters are loved by the ECR more than their respective ADP, then pitchers are going to be loved “less.” The wording I used is deceiving, as the ECR is not necessarily against these players. It’s just further indication that, in drafts, pitchers will be valued higher than the rankings. Don’t forget that when draft day arrives.
While I already highlighted the pitching premium we see in this type of analysis, it is important to note that the first five pitchers on this list are being drafted no more than six spots above their ECR. Granted, some are already being drafted so early that they can’t be taken much sooner, but the point is that we see a somewhat “linear premium” being applied. That changes with Luis Castillo. Perhaps fantasy managers are considering him “the last of a tier” where the drop-off to the next pitcher is forcing their hands, or perhaps the hype is so strong with Castillo that he’s simply worth the aggressive move. The purpose behind this discrepancy is intriguing, even if it is difficult to pinpoint. Either way, make a note of this if you plan to grab Castillo in your draft.
Two of the hitters that appear near the top of the list are important to note for both their name value — they have produced excellent fantasy baseball seasons in the past — and the actual size of the difference between ECR and ADP. DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado are being selected 13 picks before their ECR, and I see different reasons for each. Arenado’s actual draft value has been hotly debated since his trade from the Rockies, where people are struggling to gauge the overall impact of the former fantasy superstar leaving the hitter-friendly confines of Colorado. It seems as though any possible discount from the unknown is erased. There is no discount to be had. LeMahieu was directly highlighted in my early February column as he recently re-signed with the Yankees. At the time, I noted that his ECR and ADP should begin to converge. It hasn’t happened. The experts are not budging.
The winner — or losers, based on your perspective — of the “Top-100 ECR Player Like Least Compared to ADP” — it’s a prestigious award, and we’re still looking for a formal title — is Zach Plesac. He is being drafted 26 spots higher than his ECR, and there’s an interesting narrative behind this gap. For starters, Plesac also featured one of the largest imbalances between ECR and ADP in early February, but that gap has slightly shrunk — from 28 to 26. More importantly, he lost five rankings in the ECR and seven spots in ADP since the last article was published. Put another way, both the experts and the drafting public have moved Plesac down their respective lists. That’s where the parallels end and the divergence begins. Overall, the debate around Plesac centers around his impressive ERA drop that also coincided with a large decline in FIP. Regression is as close to a guarantee as we can get, but how powerful of a move back to the mean will we see? Fantasy managers appear to be less concerned with this correction than the experts.
The final group worth mentioning is the bundle of catchers we see toward the bottom of this list. Willson Contrares, Will Smith, and Yasmani Grandal see some of the biggest increases from ECR to ADP in the top-150 ECR ranks. The key here is that many fantasy managers will wait until the end of a draft before filling their catcher position, yet that isn’t what we see on the list. The ECR should be higher than ADP because the experts are “ranking” the players while people are directly drafting them. This information tells us that some catchers are being selected so aggressively that they might be an overpay in ECR and ADP.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
