We are treated to another light set of games on Monday, where it might get even smaller if the rain around Chicago postpones the Cubs and Brewers. Proceeding as if all ten teams will play, the small schedule allows us to attack the entire group as a whole. Just keep in mind that the start time for the first game is 6:10 pm EDT, an hour earlier than normal.
As always, the main sections of this article will stay intact, but each will be viewed through the lens of game theory. This is why I refer to the light set of games as a “treat.”
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel 
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
As always, we start at the top. Freddy Peralta is the most expensive pitcher on Monday -- on both websites -- and we need to immediately decide if we agree that he is worth the high price tag. Before we do that, let's make sure we can answer why he is priced atop the list. It shouldn't take long to solve the riddle, as Peralta is facing a Cubs lineup that had struggled at times during the season and since dismantled itself at the Trade Deadline. This isn't a "trap," so it falls into the "you get what you pay for" category. The question is now converted to, "Will others pay?"
We are treated to another light set of games on Monday, where it might get even smaller if the rain around Chicago postpones the Cubs and Brewers. Proceeding as if all ten teams will play, the small schedule allows us to attack the entire group as a whole. Just keep in mind that the start time for the first game is 6:10 pm EDT, an hour earlier than normal.
As always, the main sections of this article will stay intact, but each will be viewed through the lens of game theory. This is why I refer to the light set of games as a “treat.”
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
As always, we start at the top. Freddy Peralta is the most expensive pitcher on Monday -- on both websites -- and we need to immediately decide if we agree that he is worth the high price tag. Before we do that, let's make sure we can answer why he is priced atop the list. It shouldn't take long to solve the riddle, as Peralta is facing a Cubs lineup that had struggled at times during the season and since dismantled itself at the Trade Deadline. This isn't a "trap," so it falls into the "you get what you pay for" category. The question is now converted to, "Will others pay?"
Yes, until they see the next names on the list.
When given the opportunity to pivot off Peralta, people will get to decide between Luis Castillo and Lucas Giolito and save money. We can even throw Joe Musgrove onto that list. The takeaway is that, while Peralta has a great matchup, there is an easy argument to made against him -- that is, save money and have the same output.
Because Peralta is the highest-priced pitcher for Monday, his popularity will be a little higher. Otherwise, I expect him to be somewhat overvalued for the reasons I just listed. I'll start my lineup with him, even though I admit that he won't be a complete contrarian play.
The names I listed as possible alternatives to Peralta are all viable, but we will clearly need to save some money after paying a premium at SP1. Two names jump off the page: Zach Thompson and Carlos Hernandez. Thompson is priced just behind Jameson Taillon -- who presumably has a great on-paper matchup -- and the Marlins' starting pitcher has the unfortunate fate of squaring off with the Padres' lineup. Given the matchup, his price is probably high. Inexplicably high. I like that, as there's our potential "trap" for the night. Hernandez does not have as-telling numbers, but the one we should care about is his strikeout rate. It's at a whopping 11 K/9. The Yankees -- now without Anthony Rizzo -- are among the most strikeout-happy teams in play on Monday. There's a tremendous risk here, but the reward at his price is more than enough for me to take the chance at SP2.
Cash Game Recommendations: Freddy Peralta
GPP Recommendations: Freddy Peralta, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Hernandez, Zach Thompson
Top Lineup Stacks
White Sox
Brewers
Royals
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While I spent much of the Pitching Strategy section trying to find alternative routes to leverage popularity -- or lack thereof -- I'm diving right into the chalk with hitters. The White Sox may be the most popular team of the night, so the contrarian play is not to fade them but to carefully stack with a unique build. Eloy Jimenez will be popular because he's underpriced, but squeezing in another top-dollar hitter from Chicago -- Tim Anderson -- is going to make things difficult. That's why I want to do it. As a side note, if positions become more limiting than salary, I will move off of Anderson and use Jose Abreu instead.
Like the aforementioned White Sox, the Brewers are definitely going to be popular on Monday. Also, like Chicago, there is no way around targeting some of Milwaukee's hitters on a five-game slate. I'll pay up for Christian Yelich the same way I'm willing to pay up for at least one member of the White Sox. That's also because there will be some eye-popping savings from the Brewers that will be mentioned in the Value Plays section.
It's going to be almost impossible to afford Salvador Perez with most of the names already listed in this section, but I'm adding him as a Core Play in case we really want to pivot in a dramatic fashion. The Royals are a high-risk, high-reward stack for Monday as the Yankees' starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, is curiously underpriced. New York has been playing well, but the Royals are an easy target for DFS players, and still, Taillon isn't as expensive as some of the other big names. That suggests that Kansas City will have some offense on Monday, and Perez is usually a contributing factor whenever that happens.
Before I completely closed the door on paying for another high-priced player, I dug deeper into the bargain bin for some Value Plays. Once I found some, I was able to successfully use Mike Moustakas in my lineup -- and in different spots thanks to his versatility. The Reds are another team we have to expect will get a lot of attention on Monday, and paying a high price for Moustakas is worth it if Cincinnati takes care of business in Cleveland. If not, he's essentially the only hitter from the Reds I am using, so I should be able to stomach the low score.
I'm not sure if it were a misprint or the DraftKings' pricing algorithm has a score to settle, but Kolton Wong is impossibly cheap on Monday. It's the lowest salary of his last ten games by 10 percent, and anyone who sees this is probably going to slot him into their lineup. We can't care about popularity with a mismatch like this.
After writing about how much of a "must-start" Kolton Wong is at his price, it's not practical to list Whit Merrifield as another option at second base. Thankfully, he's eligible in the outfield on FanDuel, and that's where I'll be playing him. Carlos Santana has all the same positives as the aforementioned hitters from the Royals, and he's another target at a low price.
As usual, if I am not starting one of the top-priced pitchers in a given slate, then I want to see what I can find from the opposing lineup that carries some value. Myles Straw is the answer to the question. Straw was recently traded from Houston, and his tenure in Cleveland is off to a great start. He has a whopping 11 hits in nine games with two stolen bases over that span. Straw won't give any power, but he's so inexpensive that any offense from Cleveland is likely going to carry Straw into an acceptable score on Monday.
It's quite common to name a catcher as a Value Play or Punt on a given night, but Alex Jackson makes this list after already acknowledging that if I can pay for Salvador Perez, I will. What gives? For starters, I need to have flexibility in case my lineup can't work as intended -- Perez may not make the cut because of his salary. Really, Jackson's price is what intrigues me. While he is definitely cheap, he isn't borderline free like we see from so many catchers on a given night. That's because he's been given regular playing time and, over his last seven games, has four hits including a double and home run. His batting average on the season is still a mind-bending .116, but that should serve as a sign of how much better he has been with regular appearances.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
I didn't set out to put together a "stars-and-scrubs" lineup of hitters when I began my build, but the teams I wanted to stack were directly conducive to it -- the White Sox and Brewers were expensive, but the Royals were not. Even with further tweaks, I found myself pairing a more expensive hitter with a cheap one.
The irony of Monday's build is that I could have gone back to the starting pitchers and shuffled them around to gain exposure to a few more expensive arms. I didn't do it. My approach to this particular slate is to lean on a large amount of chalk from the hitters but try to stay contrarian with the pitchers. The players' salaries made this possible.
Ultimately, we're playing to win a tournament, and it requires some drastic moves and calculated risks.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
