Tonight’s slate features 13 games.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel 
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Framber Valdez tops tonight's pitching selections against the struggling Angels. He's the only high-salary arm featured today. German Marquez has a compelling case for top pitching honors when factoring in salary, netting him the second spot in today's rankings. Madison Bumgarner's DraftKings salary isn't too far behind Valdez's, making him a nifty pivot in GPPs in a plus matchup. Finally, Ian Anderson hasn't been himself in his two starts since returning from the injured list. However, a great matchup and the potential for recapturing his form catapults him into the GPP discussion.
Tonight’s slate features 13 games.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Framber Valdez tops tonight's pitching selections against the struggling Angels. He's the only high-salary arm featured today. German Marquez has a compelling case for top pitching honors when factoring in salary, netting him the second spot in today's rankings. Madison Bumgarner's DraftKings salary isn't too far behind Valdez's, making him a nifty pivot in GPPs in a plus matchup. Finally, Ian Anderson hasn't been himself in his two starts since returning from the injured list. However, a great matchup and the potential for recapturing his form catapults him into the GPP discussion.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. LAA
The Angels are completely out of sorts approaching the finish line. According to FanGraphs, they rank 28th in wRC+ (67) since the trade deadline. In addition, they've struck out in an exploitable 24.5% of their plate appearances.
Obviously, the matchup is nice, but Valdez has earned his claim to top pitcher honors tonight with stellar work of late, too. In his last six starts totaling 39.1 innings, he's spun a 3.20 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 3.35 SIERA, and 23.0 K%. Betting Pros lists the Astros as -200 favorites, despite opposing Shohei Ohtani on the bump. Further, the game's total is only 7.5 runs, telling you all you need to know about linemaker's and bettors' expectations for the Angels tonight.
German Marquez (COL) at PHI
Homers have plagued Marquez lately. He's surrendered 2.37 HR/9 in his last six starts, resulting in an inflated 6.23 ERA that's out of whack with his 3.89 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA. Considering his homer rate during this stretch is almost exactly double his 1.19 HR/9, it's bound for regression.
The Phillies could help him with regression, as they've been below-average against righties. They rank tied for 18th in wRC+ (92) against them this season. Additionally, they're stumbling since the trade deadline, ranking 21st in wRC+ (94).
GPP Recommendations:
Ian Anderson (ATL) vs. MIA
Anderson hasn't struck out any batters in two starts totaling 8.2 innings since returning from the injured list. The lack of punchouts didn't hurt him against the Giants when he spun 5.2 innings of scoreless ball. However, he did get knocked around by the Rockies in Colorado. So I forgive him for a hiccup at Coors Field.
Before his last two starts, he owned a 24.3 K%. He also generated an 11.9 SwStr%, besting the MLB average of 11.3%. The Marlins are an ideal matchup for recapturing his missing punchouts. They've struck out in 25.4% of their plate appearances against righties, and their strikeout rate's a robust 26.8% since the trade deadline.
Madison Bumgarner (ARI) at SEA
Bumgarner is greatly exceeding his ERA estimators. Still, I'm not ready to argue for massive regression vehemently because he's routinely beaten them throughout his career. In his last seven starts, he's piled up innings, pitching 45.2 of them en route to a 3.94 ERA.
MadBum could continue his run of success and good luck tonight against the Mariners because they've been dreadful against southpaws this year. Seattle ranks 26th in wRC+ (92) and has a gaudy 25.4 K% against them. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks are +135. Still, the game's total of 8.0 runs is pitcher-friendly.
Top Lineup Stacks
Looking at Chris Elllis's sterling ERA through four appearances (three starts) could provide someone reason for pause before locking Toronto's pricy hitters into their lineup. However, they shouldn't fall prey to the small sample. Ellis was god-awful in Triple-A this year. Ditto for his stay at that level in 2019. Therefore, there's a good reason for the Blue Jays having a massive implied total tonight.
Daniel Lynch's magical run of outperforming his ERA estimators came to an end in his last start. Regardless, gamers might cut him some slack since the White Sox are one of MLB's top offenses against southpaws. If that's the case, the Twins appear on a reduced percentage of rosters would be a boon for their GPP outlook.
I'm perplexed by Milwaukee's bargain salaries. They're a middle-of-the-road offense against righties this year. However, they've been raking since the trade deadline. Additionally, Eli Morgan has a 5.48 ERA and similarly ugly ERA estimators in 14 starts. Oh well, I'm not going to waste energy trying to understand the low salaries. Instead, I'm going to enjoy turning to the Brewers for salary relief in all game types.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has unloaded on righties this year for a .318 ISO and 181 wRC+. He's easily the top option from the Blue Jays. Further, he's my favorite hitter on the slate.
- Vladito's standing as the clear top option from the Blue Jays isn't a slight on Marcus Semien. On the contrary, the middle infielder has roughed up righties for a .291 ISO and 146 wRC+.
- Don't look now, but Byron Buxton might be rounding back into form. Yes, he's failed to reach base in his last nine plate appearances. However, he has had a pair of multi-hit efforts in the last week, and he hit a homer for the first time since returning from the injured list.
- Avisail Garcia's been a smidge above-average against righties this year. However, I'm most interested in his .213 ISO against them.
- Omar Narvaez is locked into the heart of the order, and he's Milwaukee's best hitter against right-handed pitchers this year.
- Luis Urias has a rock-solid 112 wRC+ against righties in 2021. That's plenty good enough for me to roster him at his bargain salary.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Conveniently, my favorite options from the Blue Jays, Twins, and Brewers mesh together. Sometimes I have to pick between my favorite stacks when the top options share the same position. Fortunately, that's not the case tonight, so I'm mixing the three highlighted stacks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
