DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 14 (2021 Fantasy Football)

Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 14 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.

Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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Quarterbacks

FanDuel

Derek Carr (LV - QB) vs. KC, $7,200 (-$300)

Derek Carr is QB16 in terms of price on FanDuel's full slate this week, but he finished as the QB7 overall when he faced this same Chiefs team back in Week 10. Last week against Washington, Carr completed 28 of his 38 passes but didn't throw any touchdowns or interceptions and ended up as QB20. But the week before? QB8 against the Cowboys even though he only threw for one touchdown pass thanks to 373 yards passing. He has attempted 34 or more passes in five of his last six games and should be throwing the ball often against the Chiefs, especially if Kansas City gets out to an early lead.

DraftKings

Taysom Hill (NO - QB) vs. NYJ, $5,600 (+$600)

Taysom Hill may not be the sexiest passer, but 1. He can run, and 2. He's playing a Jets defense that just got lit up by Gardner Minshew. His $5,600 price tag on DraftKings puts him out of QB1 territory, which makes him an ideal GPP target. He put up 28 fantasy points against the Cowboys last week despite throwing four interceptions, and it's unlikely he has as much trouble passing against this New York defense in Week 14. He's listed as questionable due to mallet finger but is expected to play.

Running Backs

FanDuel

JaMycal Hasty (SF - RB) vs. CIN, $4,700 (-$300)

It's next-man-up time in San Francisco. This week, it looks like it's going to be JaMycal Hasty. With Elijah Mitchell in the concussion protocol, Jeff Wilson dealing with a knee injury, and Trey Sermon on injured reserve, Hasty suddenly has fantasy appeal for Week 14. At $4,700, he's RB94 on FanDuel, which means he is essentially free. If the injuries to those other running backs keep them out of action, you are almost obligated to have Hasty in a few of your lineups at this price.

DraftKings

Antonio Gibson (WAS - RB) vs. DEN, $6,000 (+$100)

Antonio Gibson has been a different running back since being able to rest up over the bye week, and he has finished as the RB6 overall in Half PPR in three of his last four games, receiving at least 23 carries in all three of those games. At just $6,000 on DraftKings this week, he's priced as RB21 on the full slate. It's hard to find this kind of workload with this price tag, so take it where you can get it.

Wide Receivers

FanDuel

K.J. Osborn (MIN - WR) vs. PIT, $5,500 (+$500)

Adam Thielen has a high-ankle sprain and has already been ruled out for Thursday Night Football. That means more playing time and opportunities for K.J. Osborn, who is only $5,500 on FanDuel this week. He should be in most Thursday single-game lineups and is a free square in full slate GPP contests because of the Thielen injury. Last week, he caught four of his seven targets for 47 yards and a touchdown against the Lions after Thielen left the game.

DraftKings

Russell Gage (ATL - WR) vs. CAR, $5,700 (+$400)

Russell Gage has finished as a WR1 the last two weeks but is priced as the *checks notes* WR29 on the DraftKings full slate this week. Last week against the Buccaneers, Gage caught 11 of his 12 targets for 130 yards. Over his last three weeks combined, he has 27 targets and 241 yards receiving. This is WR1 volume at a WR3 price on DraftKings.

Tight Ends

FanDuel

Tyler Conklin (MIN - TE) vs. PIT, $5,400 (+$200)

See K.J. Osborn above. Adam Thielen isn't playing this week. With Thielen leaving the game last week, Conklin saw an increase in volume. His nine targets last week were the most he has seen in any game this season, and his seven receptions tied a season-high he set in Week 3 against the Seahawks. He is a low-end TE1 this week but presents plenty of upside, especially since the Vikings and Steelers are playing on Thursday night.

DraftKings

Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS - TE) vs. DAL, $3,600 (+$200)

Unfortunately for the Washington Football Team (and Dan Harris), Logan Thomas is done for the season after injuring his knee last week and landing back on injured reserve on Wednesday. Enter Ricky Seals-Jones. RSJ has been dealing with a hip injury himself and has missed the last few games but has been trending in the right direction, and the team reportedly expects him to play. From Weeks 5-7, he caught 15 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown, and he's an affordable option in GPP contests in Week 14 against the Cowboys.

Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.