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Allen Robinson To Sign With Rams: Fantasy Football Takeaways & Implications (2022)

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Allen Robinson heads to the Rams on a three-year deal, bolstering an already talented pass-catching depth chart. This move will wipe Odell Beckham’s possible return off the board. The Rams have Robert Woods under contract for the next four seasons with his dead cap not falling off considerably until 2023 (they can save 9.1 million if they cut him then). Van Jefferson can also step up and start in three-wide sets until Woods is back to full strength.

Last year, Robinson’s production face-planted. In his 12 games played, he finished as the WR76 in fantasy points per game. He limped to a career-low 1.13 yards per route run (per PFF) as an afterthought in the Chicago passing attack with an 11.0% target-per-snap rate (77th among wide receivers). The hope for Robinson is that last year was an outlier, and he’s not a shell of his former self entering his age-29 season. In Weeks 12-18 last year, when Beckham was a full-time player in the Rams’ offense, he was the WR38 in fantasy points per game. Robinson falls in a similar bucket right now as a low-end WR3 or high-end WR4 with upside for more if Woods is slow out the gate or dust at this point in his career.
– Derek Brown


Allen Robinson II inked a three-year, $46.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Rams that includes $30.7M fully guaranteed, per Tom Pelissero.

The ex-Chicago Bears wide receiver will now catch passes from Matthew Stafford — easily the best quarterback he has ever played with in his entire football career. It’s a boon to his fantasy football value that cratered a season ago, with Arob posting a top-36 performance only once all season.

I would like to blame Robinson’s 2021 campaign solely on outside factors — he had the third-lowest catchable target percentage (59%) — but the veteran wide receiver does have to shoulder some responsibility. After all, Darnell Mooney was able to break out amid the same situation.

Part of the reason comes down to Robinson being more of a contested-catch receiver rather than an elite separator. He finished in the 12th percentile in separation rate in 2021, while Mooney finished in the 73rd percentile.

The big-bodied X wide receiver is a dying breed in the NFL, which is why Robinson landing with the Rams was critical to his future success. He gets to reap the benefits of playing with a quarterback who isn’t afraid to target him downfield in tight coverage.

That, along with playing in a more efficient offense in general, is his path for recapturing his prior fantasy form. Let’s not forget that Robinson was the only player to command 150-plus targets in both 2019 and 2020.

Robinson heading to L.A. also has a slight ripple effect on the incumbent receivers. It makes it less likely that Odell Beckham Jr. re-signs with the team. Robert Woods and Van Jefferson less sure-fire bets to produce in 2022.

Woods is coming off a torn ACL and struggled to post consistent fantasy production before his injury. He was the WR17 in half-PPR scoring per game before going on IR.

Jefferson saw elite usage playing on every-down as the No. 3 receiver but didn’t follow up his playing time with any worthwhile production. Jefferson was WR35 overall on the season and outside the top 40 in points per game despite a top-tier 86% route participation.

Best-case scenario for Robinson is that he steps up into the No. 2 role behind Cooper Kupp and operates the way OBJ did down the playoff stretch, averaging a 19% target share and 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round (fantasy WR2).

This offense is good enough to support more than one weapon, and Robinson should be viewed as the favorite to benefit behind Kupp. Some might knock Kupp down a notch because of the Robinson signing, but I would be hesitant to do so.

Robinson’s highest-targeted seasons have always come when he has been surrounded by little to no competition. And again, he was out-targeted by a second-year wide receiver just last season.
– Andrew Erickson

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