Aaron Rodgers Contract Extension: Fantasy Football Impact & Takeaways (2022)
Aaron Rodgers seemed destined to depart from Green Bay just a few months ago. However, Rodgers has reached an agreement with that will keep him with the Packers for the foreseeable future. How does Rodgers’ new deal impact his fantasy outlook along with that of his teammates? Our analysts take a look.
The Details of Aaron Rodgers‘ Contract Extension
The reigning MVP’s new contract has $153 million guaranteed and his cap hit will decrease for Green Bay. He wanted to be the highest-paid player in NFL history and now he is. He remains an elite fantasy QB.
The Impact on Aaron Rodgers and other Green Bay Packers
Rodgers is 13-3 in each of the past three seasons with head coach Matt LaFleur, and even though #QBWinz isn’t an official stat … it kind of is. Despite his recent lack of postseason success, Rodgers is still a top-tier quarterback in reality and fantasy. Even with first-round backup Jordan Love on the roster, the Packers had little option but to pay Rodgers like the back-to-back MVP that he is.
Over the past two seasons, Rodgers is easily No. 1 in the league with a 0.193 composite score of expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (including playoffs, per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter). At times, Rodgers can be too conservative in attacking downfield (as evidenced by his league-low 0.3%, 0.7%, 1.0%, and 0.8% interception rates in each of the past four seasons), but even at the age of 38, he threw the ball as well as anyone this past year.
With his new contract, Rodgers is a locked-in mid-tier fantasy QB1 with upside, and his continued presence in Green Bay is a boon for wide receiver Davante Adams (a top-four fantasy receiver) as well as all the other skill-position players, including running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, both of whom have top-12 upside.
– Matthew Freedman
Aaron Rodgers is back to the Pack. The Green Bay Packers’ long-time quarterback inked a four-year mega-deal worth $200 million that makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history per NFL.com insider Ian Rapoport.
It’s a fantasy blessing for all parties involved in Green Bay except for any Jordan Love stans. Rodgers’ return also slams the door on the future Hall of Famer throwing passes to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy for the Denver Broncos.
Rodgers still has a ton to offer at the quarterback position in real life and in fantasy, finishing 2021 as PFF’s third-highest graded quarterback and as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. His current best-ball ADP is QB9 behind Trey Lance and Dak Prescott.
His return almost surely means that Davante Adams will also come back and be a top-tier fantasy wide receiver. A healthy Adams has finished no worse than fantasy WR5 attached to Rodgers over the last four seasons, and he ended 2021 second in fantasy points per game at age 29.
Adams is currently being drafted as the WR4 at 9th overall in best-ball ADP. I wouldn’t anticipate either Rodgers or Adams’ ADP moving too drastically after this news aside from a slight increase.
However, there is definitely value to be had when it comes to Green Bay’s backfield. The efficiency of the offense should remain top-notch with No. 12 back under center which has a positive trickle-down effect on running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Jones – a fringe first-round pick in 2021 – owns an ADP in the fourth round. Dillon is going off the best-ball board as RB27, which makes him a screaming value. The bruising back is a major candidate for positive touchdown regression after converting just four of his ten goal-line carries into touchdowns a season ago.
Playing in a high-powered offense led by Rodgers, Dillon could end up as 2021’s version of James Conner after finishing as PFF’s second-highest graded rusher in 2021.
Josiah Deguara also becomes an interesting sleeper tight end to target late in best ball and dynasty formats with Rodgers entrenched as the starter. Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Allen Lazard (RFA) are all impending free agents, leaving targets available in the offense behind Adams.
The former Cincinnati Bearcat has some impressive measurables – 55th percentile 40-yard dash, 77th percentile vertical jump – so a 2022 breakout is well within his range of outcomes. After all, he has led the Packers’ tight end room in routes run.
In dynasty leagues, it’s probably worth sending out feelers for 2021 third-round pick Amari Rodgers, who seems slated for an expanded role in Year 2.
– Andrew Erickson
— Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) March 8, 2022