We started by looking at hitters who qualify as “sleepers” in the 2022 draft. Now it’s time to peek at pitchers who could fit the bill.
In a two-part series, I’m highlighting four different sleepers for you in different ranges in the draft.
One from pick 100-199, one from 200-299, one from 300-399, and one from 400 and higher.
Average Draft Position (ADP) referenced using FantasyPros consensus ADP
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If you’re still looking for some hurlers who can provide great value at their current ADP, here are some options:
Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP – TOR) ADP 183
No matter how you slice it, Ryu wasn’t good last year. We aren’t defending that performance.
But it’s worth noting that he was going as an SP2 last season, he was bouncing around from ballpark to ballpark with no proper home field, and he had Cavan Biggio (3B, OF – TOR) playing third base behind him with Bo Bichette (SS – TOR) at short.
We aren’t defending it, but we’re trying to make sense of it.
Ryu and the Jays return home to Toronto this year, and the humidor helps it from being the launching pad that it once was, so that’s a trend in the right direction.
Also, his ADP now has him as an SP5/SP6, which is an overreaction to a season where Ryu’s control slipped compared to his lengthy track record.
Most importantly, though, is that Ryu and the Jays now have Matt Chapman (3B – TOR) at third base. My dog, Jill, would have been an upgrade over Biggio, but Chapman is the best defensive player in baseball.
If you look at where most of the balls that batters hit against Ryu went last year, you’ll see they went right to third base.
Ryu is coming at a massive discount for a genuine SP2/SP3.
Bonus pick: Michael Kopech (SP – CHW)
Patrick Sandoval (SP – LAA) ADP 202
Do you know who likes Sandoval this year? Everyone, seemingly.
Yet, his ADP is after the top 200 despite having a ton of helium behind him.
It’s easy to see why, too, because of the sequencing of his pitches and the filthy changeup.
Using Statcast charts on their own is dangerous, but when you see a ton of red as we see on Sandoval’s chart, we need to notice.
He limits hard contact, has a high Whiff rate, and has a plus K% despite not having overpowering stuff.
It all comes back to the changeup for the lefty. Sandoval utilizes the pitch as his primary offering, throwing it 29.6 percent of the time. In 2021, he held hitters to a .139 average (xBA .147) with a 51.4 Whiff rate.
If you’re drafting this weekend, don’t be afraid to push Sandoval up a couple of rounds in your draft.
Bonus pick: Tanner Houck (SP – BOS)
Dinelson Lamet (RP – SD) ADP 337
I’ve been unkind to Lamet in the past. Well, not to him, really, but about him for fantasy.
I just didn’t see a starter there.
It was the long injury track record, but it was also the fact that he was a pitcher with one dominant – elite, even – pitch and one so-so offering.
Now, I’m not down on two-pitch pitchers succeeding as starters. We’ve seen that change happen over the last decade where two-plus offerings can help you succeed. But Lamet didn’t have that.
He had a fastball that is as flat as Kyrie Irving thinks the Earth is, and while he had spurts of success as a starter, it wasn’t sustainable.
But do you know what is sustainable?
Lamet as a closer.
San Diego looks like they could be leaning that way, and they should lean all the way into it.
Lamet’s stuff will play up in the ninth inning, and his slider can be almost unhittable.
Without a true closer on their roster and many pitchers who are alike, Lamet stands out above the rest in pure stuff.
Bonus pick: Reid Detmers (SP – LAA)
Mitch Keller (SP – PIT) ADP 470
The Pirates pitchers aren’t good until they’re on new teams. That’s what we’ve heard, at least.
Gerrit Cole (NYY), Jameson Taillon (NYY), Charlie Morton (ATL), Tyler Glasnow (TB), Shane Baz (TB). There’s a track record there, and many thought Keller would be next on the list.
Not so fast, though.
A video in the offseason emerged of Keller shoving 100 mile-per-hour fastballs, and it had people giving the side-eye emoji.
That’s just a video, though, right? It doesn’t mean much.
It’s true, it doesn’t, but Keller looks like a new pitcher so far this spring.
His fastball still grades as league-average, but he’s seen a spike in velocity with it.
In his first three seasons, Mitch Keller threw 41 fastballs 97+ MPH
In his first two games this spring, Mitch Keller has thrown 21 fastballs 97+ MPH
— Justice delos Santos (@justdelossantos) March 24, 2022
Perhaps it’s nothing. Everyone is working on something in Spring Training, so we can’t chalk this as a breakout season for Keller.
But with an ADP this high and his prospect pedigree, taking a shot for him to return top 200 value if it does click is worth the investment here on draft day.
Bonus pick: MacKenzie Gore (SP – SD)
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
