The NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and this yearly spectacle is another stone skipping across the NFL calendar that will create ripple effects throughout the running back landscape. Before we readjust with the fallout of rookies entering the conversation, let’s discuss some rushers currently outside the top 24 in our ECR that have RB1 upside in 2022.
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA) – RB26
Is Rashaad Penny RISING or FALLING in best ball leagues? Some disagreement on him and other players from @AndrewErickson_, @Fitz_FF, @DBro_FFB, @Roto_Chef and @CoachStevenP ⤵️https://t.co/XgvgqyrQ6J
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 1, 2022
Yes, I know this is technically cheating. Penny’s current ranking outside the top 24 running backs has to be pointed out here. Last year in Weeks 14-18, he averaged 18.4 rushing attempts and 134.2 rushing yards per game as the RB1 (PPR) in fantasy football. He only ran a route on 32.2% (per PFF) of Russell Wilson’s (QB – DEN) dropbacks last year, so if he pans out, most of his production will likely have to come via his early-down contributions. As he illustrated last season, ranking first in breakaway run rate and second in yards created per touch, he has the raw rushing talent to do so.
Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) – RB27
YOU.
Are Still too Low on Michael Carter…pic.twitter.com/WBV5LzzIca
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) February 24, 2022
Unless the Jets add a running back in the top two rounds, Michael Carter looks poised to roll into Week 1, at the very least, as the team’s 1A option at running back. Carter played exceptionally well last season when on the field. He was 11th in juke rate (per Playerprofiler.com) and 14th in yards per route run at the position. As a full-time player from the first snap this year, he can build upon the 147 rushing attempts he saw in 2021. Among rushers with 125 or more carries last season, he was sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.37, per PFF) behind only Nick Chubb, Elijah Mitchell, Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, and Javonte Wiliams. The added touches equal more chances for him to bust big plays.
Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA) – RB34
Were we a Year EARLY for…
Chase Edmonds SZN❓pic.twitter.com/VPYz4SV6ne
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 5, 2022
Whether it’s the fact that he’s never been a lead back or the Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) signing pushing his ADP lower, Chase Edmonds is undervalued. He has oozed efficiency anytime he’s gotten the ball and last year was no exception. He was 12th in juke rate (per Playerprofiler.com), 11th in breakaway run rate, and ninth in yards per route run. Mostert can be a factor in this backfield in 2022, and Edmonds can still be a big producer. Last season in the games (ten) in which he played only 50% or more snaps, he was a top 24 fantasy option 70% of the time. Add in the Dolphins upgrading their offensive line by signing Terron Armstead (OL – MIA) (40th) and Connor Williams (OL – MIA) (20th). They ranked inside the top 40 in zone blocking grades per PFF (minimum 100 run-blocking snaps) at their respective positions. Edmonds could explode in 2022.
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Derek Brown is a fantasy analyst at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @dbro_ffb
