2021 Production

Career Contextualization

Davante Adams has spent his entire eight-year career as a member of the Green Bay Packers, catching passes from future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB). The start to his career was quite rocky; after two years in the league, Adams was hardly the stud No. 1 WR we call today.

But he showed glimpses of the talent to keep his chances alive as a Packer. He had two 100-yard games as a rookie, including one in the postseason. And in his second season, he commanded a whopping 21 targets in one game.

The planets aligned for Adams in Year 3, as he hauled in 14 touchdowns. He would inherit the No. 1 role from Jordy Nelson in the Green Bay offense in 2017 – and the rest is history.

A healthy Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018 (Adams played only 12 games in 2019), and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29.

The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns – double-digits on average – since 2016, 23 more than the next closest duo, (Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) and Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA). Thirty-three percent of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.

Current Situation

Adams’ high level of play won’t stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr (QB – LV). It’s unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the extent of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller (TE – LV) and Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV) represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay.

Carr has also never had a receiver catch double-digit touchdowns (several have had nine).

General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career

We can no longer view Adams as the same locked-and-loaded top-5 fantasy WR as the newest member of the Black Hole, and he falls to WR10 in my dynasty wide receiver rankings.

At his age – 30 in December – he’s a sell for any dynasty team looking to rebuild. Win-now dynasty squads can try to buy Adams at a slight discount in his new home, but the name cache might neutralize any suppressed cost. He’s more of a hold with at least two solid fantasy WR1 seasons left in the tank.

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