Career Contextualization
Despite standing 5-7 and weighing 180 pounds, Rondale Moore (WR – ARI) was the big man on campus at Purdue University as soon as he arrived in West Lafayette, Indiana. As an 18-year-old freshman, Moore caught 114 passes for 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns, ran 21 times for 213 yards and two touchdowns and returned kicks and punts for the Boilermakers. He fueled Purdue’s stunning 49-20 upset of No. 2-ranked Ohio State in October 2018 with 12 catches for 170 yards and two TDs. Moore was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year. He was also a consensus first-team All-American and earned the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player.
Moore began his sophomore season with an 11-124-1 receiving day against Nevada and a 13-220-1 stat line against Vanderbilt, then tore his hamstring in the Big Ten opener vs. Minnesota and missed the rest of the season. Moore initially opted to sit out his junior year after the Big Ten announced that the 2020 season would be postponed until spring 2021 due to COVID-19. He decided to play when the Big Ten switched to an abbreviated fall schedule, re-injured his left hamstring and missed the first three games of the season, then had 35-270-0 receiving in the other three games of a six-game schedule.
The Arizona Cardinals selected Moore in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, 49th overall. There was hope that Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who had a reputation of being an offensive mad scientist (though that reputation has crumbled of late) would be able to maximize Moore’s unique talents. Moore has sub-4.4. speed and recorded a 96th percentile burst score and 94th percentile agility score, per PlayerProfiler.com. Alas, Moore provided neither sustained fantasy relevance nor occasional outbursts of gadgety goodness during his rookie year. He finished 2021 with 54-435-1 receiving on 64 targets and added 18-76-0 rushing.
Career Contextualization
Despite standing 5-7 and weighing 180 pounds, Rondale Moore (WR – ARI) was the big man on campus at Purdue University as soon as he arrived in West Lafayette, Indiana. As an 18-year-old freshman, Moore caught 114 passes for 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns, ran 21 times for 213 yards and two touchdowns and returned kicks and punts for the Boilermakers. He fueled Purdue’s stunning 49-20 upset of No. 2-ranked Ohio State in October 2018 with 12 catches for 170 yards and two TDs. Moore was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year. He was also a consensus first-team All-American and earned the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player.
Moore began his sophomore season with an 11-124-1 receiving day against Nevada and a 13-220-1 stat line against Vanderbilt, then tore his hamstring in the Big Ten opener vs. Minnesota and missed the rest of the season. Moore initially opted to sit out his junior year after the Big Ten announced that the 2020 season would be postponed until spring 2021 due to COVID-19. He decided to play when the Big Ten switched to an abbreviated fall schedule, re-injured his left hamstring and missed the first three games of the season, then had 35-270-0 receiving in the other three games of a six-game schedule.
The Arizona Cardinals selected Moore in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, 49th overall. There was hope that Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who had a reputation of being an offensive mad scientist (though that reputation has crumbled of late) would be able to maximize Moore’s unique talents. Moore has sub-4.4. speed and recorded a 96th percentile burst score and 94th percentile agility score, per PlayerProfiler.com. Alas, Moore provided neither sustained fantasy relevance nor occasional outbursts of gadgety goodness during his rookie year. He finished 2021 with 54-435-1 receiving on 64 targets and added 18-76-0 rushing.
Current Situation
Moore’s role has to change if he is to become a more valuable fantasy asset in 2022 and beyond. He had a 45% snap share in 2021, averaging 4.6 targets and 1.3 rushing attempts per game. The targets simply weren’t very valuable. Moore’s average depth of target in 2021 was just 1.4 yards. That’s the sort of aDOT we typically see from a running back, not a receiver. The next-lowest aDOT among receivers who saw at least 20 targets last year was Braxton Berrios (WR – NYJ) at 5.1 yards. Only five receivers with at least 20 targets had aDOTs under 6.0.
Moore's air yards were scant in 2021, but he picked up plenty of yardage after the catch (YAC).
The 49ers used Deebo Samuel (WR - SF) similarly in 2020. Deebo's aDOT was 2.2 yards that season, and he finished with 391 receiving yards in seven games. In 2021, Deebo's aDOT jumped to 8.4 yards, and he finished with 1,405 receiving yards.
For Moore to become more impactful, he needs to run routes deeper downfield. Kingsbury's passing attack has been maddeningly horizontal in nature, so we can't assume more optimal usage for Moore -- at least not in terms of how he fits into the scheme. But is there enough of a reason to believe Moore is in for a boost in target volume?
The departure of Christian Kirk (WR - JAC), who left Arizona in a Brinks truck after the Jacksonville Jaguars gave him a four-year, $72 million contract, initially seemed to bode well for Moore. Kirk played 406 slot snaps for the Cardinals last season. Moore played 278 slot snaps. If Moore inherits the lion's share of Kirk's vacated slot snaps, he's bound to get a significant value boost, even if many of those targets continue to be low-leverage targets in the flats. If Moore becomes Arizona's primary slot receiver and he starts running routes deeper downfield... now we're cooking with gas.
But then there were two interesting developments -- one during the NFL Draft, one shortly thereafter. The Cardinals traded their first-round pick to the Ravens for Marquise Brown and a third-round pick. Brown has one-year left on his rookie deal, and Arizona is likely to pick up his fifth-year option to give him at least two seasons in the desert. That move certainly didn't bode well for Moore. But then it was announced that WR DeAndre Hopkins, the odds-on favorite to lead the Cardinals in targets, would be suspended six games for violating the NFL policy on performance-enhancing drugs. That would leave some targets on the table for Moore, at least early in the season.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
Moore was a prolific college performer at a young age, the Cardinals invested second-round draft capital in him, and he plays in a healthy offense helmed by a good young quarterback. The odds of a successful NFL career still appear to be in Moore's favor even after a disappointing rookie year, although now that the Cardinals have added Hollywood Brown, it might take a change of scenery for Moore to get the sort of target load that his supporters believe he deserves.
So far, we haven't addressed the elephant in the room -- or, in this case, the mouse in the room. We have to talk about Moore's size.
Since the NFL-AFL merger, the only wide receiver 5-foot-7 or shorter to record a 1,000-yard season was Richard Johnson, who had a 70-1,091-8 season for the Lions in 1989. However, there have been 38 different 1,000-yard seasons authored by receivers 5-9 or shorter since the merger. 12 receivers have done it. The four to have done it in the last 10 years are Marquise Brown, Lance Moore, Steve Smith and Wes Welker.
Welker and Lance Moore were both slot receivers. They aren't perfect comps for Rondale, who's much faster and more athletic than Welker and Lance Moore were. But Rondale Moore stakeholders would probably be thrilled if they got a Welker-type career out of Rondale. Welker had five 1,000-yard seasons and five seasons with 100-plus catches. (Being paired with Tom Brady certainly didn't hurt.) Rondale Moore investors would be less thrilled if the young receiver wound up having a career arc more reminiscent of Lance Moore, who was fantasy-relevant from 2008 to 2012 but typically wasn't considered to be a weekly must-start.
Rondale Moore's career is probably going to land somewhere on the Wes Welker/Lance Moore continuum. Exactly where he lands on that continuum will depend largely on usage.
If you're rostering Moore, he's a hold. If Moore eventually becomes a primary slot man, whether it's in Arizona or elsewhere, he's capable of a 90-catch, 900-yard season with some bonus rushing yardage -- and maybe more than that. Moore's perceived value fell when the Cardinals added Marquise Brown, so sellers aren't likely to get a satisfactory return in any trade. If you're interested in trying to buy Moore before a usage spike, offer a rookie draft pick in the 2.07-2.10 range, or maybe an RB such as Rashaad Penny or Michael Carter -- both of whom took value hits when their respective teams drafted top RB prospects.
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