Breece Hall: Top-15 Running Back with Upside? (2022 Fantasy Football)
The New York Jets made Breece Hall the first running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. While many were hoping for a better landing spot, dig deeper and you may see there’s more than meets the eye with Hall entering his rookie season. There’s a case to be made that Hall could be a value compared to his current consensus average draft position (ADP) of RB25 and Expert Consensus Ranking of RB20.
Latest News Involving Breece Hall
The New York Jets intend to use both Breece Hall and Michael Carter in complementary roles out of the backfield, “but Hall is the lead back,” writes Connor Hughes of The Athletic. The Jets reportedly view the rookie as a “home run threat.” (Source: The Athletic)
Fantasy Impact: Hughes explains that the Jets like both Hall and Carter, but “they’ve always viewed [Carter] as an ideal complement in Mike LaFleur’s running back by committee. Hall is now the Batman to Carter’s Robin.” Of course, this makes sense after the Jets made Hall the first running back drafted this spring. During his final year at Iowa State, he produced 1,472 rushing yards, 289 receiving yards, and 23 total touchdowns. He enters his rookie season as an RB3 with low-end RB1 upside. Carter, on the other hand, is still a very appealing threat who can handle lead-back duties if Hall suffers an injury or the Jets need fresh legs. As a rookie last season, Carter came just shy of 1,000 scrimmage yards (14 games) but still finished with double-digit fantasy points on seven occasions, including a 32.2-point effort in Week 8. He has a lower ceiling but can still provide FLEX appeal on a weekly basis in 2022.
Breece Hall 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team’s locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall’s three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory.
The Iowa State product totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks.
A workload of approximately 240 touches – based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay’s projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season – would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking.
2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he’s just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time.
From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman’s return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together.
– Andrew Erickson
Breece Hall lands with the New York Jets and should get all the volume he can handle. Michael Carter was immensely productive when healthy and given the opportunity last year, but this type of draft capital speaks volumes. New York deployed inside and outside zone runs on 60% of their rushing snaps last year (per PFF). These run designs are Hall’s bread and butter, as he registered a 36% missed tackles forced rate on outside zone runs in 2021 (per PFF). The Jets should have no issues springing him into space with an offensive line that was 11th in open field yards last season (per Football Outsiders).
– Derek Brown
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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