Do you ever have a dream that jars you awake? That leaves you screaming. If only for a moment. Drenched in a cold sweat. “What if? What if my fantasy football draft plays out EXACTLY LIKE I WANT IT TO in my most important league?” Ya know. The one with the hefty buy-in. The family league where winning means a year-long smack-talk fest with your relatives. The office league where you can dunk on your coworkers weekly.
These are my Perfect Draft targets for 2026. Make your Fantasy Football title dreams a reality.
Derek Brown’s Perfect 2026 Fantasy Football Draft
*All data utilized in this article are courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
Early Round 1 Fantasy Football Players to Target
Last year, Bijan Robinson was the RB2 in fantasy football points per game. For most of the season, he was pacing towards a 1,000-yard season for rushing and receiving before tailing off at the end of the season (820 receiving yards). Robinson was also crushed by the heavy usage of Tyler Allgeier near the goal line. Allgeier finished with eight rushing touchdowns, while Robinson had only 11 total touchdowns. Robinson had a pitiful 49.3% red zone rushing share (per Fantasy Points Data). With Allgeier and the previous coaching staff gone, Robinson should enjoy more usage near paydirt in 2026. He was incredibly efficient with his workload last season, which is a reflection of his insane talent. He finished in the top three among running backs (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets) in receiving yards per game, target share, yards per route run, first downs per route run, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Robinson is my favorite bet to be the RB1 overall in 2026.
Last year, Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. After Week 10, his usage got a massive bump, as he didn’t play fewer than 68% of the snaps in any game for the rest of the season, averaging 20 touches and 114.9 total yards per game. This stretch of games from Weeks 11-18 also coincided with Sam LaPorta‘s absence, which increased Gibbs’ passing game usage. In Weeks 1-10, Gibbs had a 12.7% target share, 25.2 receiving yards per game, and an 11.1% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). In Weeks 11-18, Gibbs saw a huge increase in work through the air without LaPorta, with a 19% target share, 48.6 receiving yards per game, and a 19.6% first-read share. Gibbs led all running backs in those statistical categories in the final eight games of the season. Gibbs is in the running for RB1 overall in 2026, but if Detroit’s other weapons remain healthy all season, it could be tough for him to do so. I still expect him to be a top-three back this season who is insanely efficient with his passing game and early down work. Last year, he ranked ninth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. Gibbs will and should be a top 3-5 pick in every fantasy football draft this year.
Ja’Marr Chase had another stellar season last year. He was the WR3 in fantasy football points per game while finishing sixth in red zone targets and 18th in deep targets (tied). Again this season, Chase will lead an offense that will live and die by their passing game. Last year, Cincy was third in neutral passing rate and fifth in red zone passing rate. I don’t see either of those numbers changing much in 2026 with Joe Burrow back under center. Last year, Chase remained a volume and efficiency monster, ranking third in target share (30.2%) and receiving yards per game (88.3), 18th in yards per route run (2.30), 14th in first downs per route run (0.119), and third in first-read share (40.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was ninth in separation score and 23rd in route win rate. Chase has WR1 overall upside again this season.
Mid Round 1 Players to Target
Last year, Puka Nacua took Ja’Marr Chase‘s throne as the WR1 in fantasy football points per game, and he could repeat as the top dog this year among wide receivers. Last year, Nacua was third in raw target volume, first in receptions, second in receiving yards, 23rd in deep targets, and 12th in red zone targets (tied). Nacua was fourth in target share (28.8%), first in receiving yards per game (107.2), first in yards per route run (3.85), and fourth in first-read share (37.5%, per Fantasy Points Data). If all of that wasn’t enough, he was also sixth-best in separation and route win rate. Nacua is a volume-gobbling stud who could easily repeat as the WR1 overall if Matthew Stafford keeps dealing at an MVP (or near) level in 2026.
Last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba stepped up and put up what might be a career-best season for him when it’s all said and done. I’m not saying that he will definitely fall off, but replicating his 2025 season will be tough no matter how you slice it. Last year, he posted the seventh-most receiving yards ever in a single season (1,793) and 119 receptions as the WR2 in fantasy football points per game. He had 44.1% of Seattle’s receiving yards, which was easily the highest mark in the NFL among receivers by a staggering 6.2%. The next closest was Puka Nacua with 37.9%. Smith-Njigba didn’t have any new faces added to this Seattle passing attack in the offseason to threaten his usage at all, and he still has Sam Darnold under center, but we’ll have to see how much losing Klint Kubiak impacts this offense. That loss won’t tank his season, but it’s a concern that has to be brought up. Last year, Smith-Njigba ranked first in target share (32.6%), second in receiving yards per game (105.5), second in yards per route run (3.74), and first in first-read share (44.6%, per Fantasy Points Data). Smith-Njigba is a top 3-5 fantasy receiver with an extremely high ceiling and elite floor.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a no-brainer stud WR1 for fantasy football over the last four years. Since 2023, he has finished as the WR4 in fantasy points per game in EVERY season. Yep, it’s true. Last season, among 109 qualifying receivers, St. Brown ranked fifth in target share (28.5%), in receiving yards per game (82.4), in yards per route run (2.66), and in first-read share (37.4%, per Fantasy Points Data). He was also third in first downs per route run and led all receivers in red zone targets. The red zone work should come down some with a healthy Sam LaPorta for 2026, but St. Brown should still finish with double-digit receiving touchdowns for the fourth consecutive season. St. Brown is a high floor/high ceiling pick again in 2026.
Late Round 1 Players to Target
CeeDee Lamb had a “down” year last season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, but that finish doesn’t really tell the entire story of Lamb’s season. In Week 3, he played only seven snaps, and in Week 18, he played only 45.5% of the snaps. If we remove those two games, he averaged 16.6 PPR points per game, which would have him as the WR9 in fantasy football points per game last season. In that 12-game sample, Lamb drew a 24.8% target share with 89.4 receiving yards per game, 2.51 yards per route run, a 32.3% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Overall, those marks would have ranked 13th, third, ninth, 12th, and 26th among all receivers with at least 200 routes last season. Lamb remains a locked-in WR1 with a stellar quarterback in his prime and George Pickens alongside him to keep defenses honest.
Well, so much for all of the regression talk about James Cook last year. Cook crushed all of the haters, improving his stock as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He led the NFL in rushing yards (1,621) while finishing third in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing touchdowns (tied). Cook had 14 total touchdowns compared to the 18 that he spiked in the previous season. Cook remained extremely efficient as a rusher, ranking 15th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His passing game usage was nearly identical to the previous season, with 40 targets (38 targets in 2024) and 8.8 yards per
Ashton Jeanty will be seen as a disappointment for fantasy football managers exiting his rookie season. It wasn’t a failure, but you can make the argument that, because of his talent and the hype, it didn’t live up to lofty expectations. Jeanty was the RB15 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 321 touches and 1,321 total yards. He ranked fifth in snap share, first in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 15th in red zone touches. Among 49 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranked 16th in missed tackle rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The ecosystem surrounding Jeanty stunk. The Raiders were 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game and 30th in yards per play. Among those 49 qualifying backs previously, Jeanty had the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.28), and 65% of his rushing yards came after first contact. With Klint Kubiak in town, Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins at the helm, a healthy Brock Bowers, and improved blocking up front, Jeanty could be poised to post a strong RB1 season in his second season.
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2026 Draft Kit.
Early Round 2 Fantasy Football Players to Target
Last year, Chase Brown started slowly, ranking 34th in fantasy football points per game in Weeks 1-5. After that point, he was exactly who fantasy gamers thought they were drafting as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 6-18, among 48 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate, fifth in yards after contact per attempt, and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). During that span, he averaged 18.2 touches and 100.1 total yards. Brown had to deal with Samaje Perine eating into his workload during Weeks 13-18, but it didn’t capsize his production. During that stretch, while he did play 60.5% of the snaps and 71.6% of the snaps in the red zone, he did have 17 red zone carries versus Perine’s 13. If Brown can capture more of the red zone work in 2026, his ceiling and floor will be raised considerably from a week-to-week and season-long perspective. Brown is a solid RB1 with top-five upside this season.
Last year, Omarion Hampton’s rookie season was derailed by an ankle injury in Week 5. When he came back, he wasn’t close to 100% healthy and had only one game with over a 55% snap rate. Any games after Week 4 last year, I’m just tossing in the trash because that wasn’t the “real” Hampton. In 2025, in Weeks 1-4, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. In that small sample of games, he posted a 7.4% explosive run rate, a 19% missed tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept up that pace the entire year in those three categories, he would have ranked fourth, tenth, and eighth in those categories (minimum 100 carries). Those are impressive numbers and speak to his talent and upside in 2026 as Mike McDaniel’s possible bellcow. Hampton also contributed through the air in his first four NFL games with a 10.1% target share, 27.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.12 yards per route run. McDaniel is sure to get Hampton involved through the air after designing offenses of the last three seasons that have ranked third, third, and seventh in target share to the running back position. Yes, I know that Hampton isn’t De’Von Achane, but this is still a feather in Hampton’s cap. Hampton should be a rock-solid RB1 with massive upside in 2026.
Kenneth Walker arrives in Kansas City as the Chiefs’ new lead back. Walker had a disappointing season in 2025 from a fantasy football standpoint as the RB28 in fantasy points per game, but it’s easy to see why it unfolded that way. He had to split the passing game usage with Zach Charbonnet, and he was shown the cold shoulder by Seattle in the red zone. Last year, Walker had a 31.9% route share versus Charbonnet’s 34.7% route share (per Fantasy Points Data). In the games that Charbonnet was active, Walker saw only 34.8% of the running back red zone rushing work (30 red zone carries versus Charbonnet’s 51). With a lucrative contract signed and delivered for Walker, I don’t see him missing out on the high-usage boat in 2026. Talent isn’t the problem for him; it was just the way that Seattle deployed him. Last year, Walker ranked second in explosive run rate, first in missed tackle rate, ninth in yards per route run, and 12th in first downs per route run. He was a per-touch efficiency marvel. I don’t foresee him being a true bellcow with Kansas City, and I don’t want that because he has dealt with injury issues in the past. With his salivating mix of talent and efficiency, Walker should be an explosive RB1 in 2026.
Mid Round 2 Players to Target
I absolutely understand the concern regarding the Falcons’ quarterback situation, but that won’t stop me from drafting Drake London. London is a bet on talent that I’ll continue to make. Despite Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins, London was cooking last year before a PCL injury derailed his season in Week 11. In Weeks 1-10 last year, London was the WR6 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he was fourth in target share (30.3%), fourth in receiving yards per game (86.4), sixth in yards per route run (2.74), fifth in first-read share (37.6%), and seventh in first downs per route run (0.135, per Fantasy Points Data). London should be a locked-in WR1 this season with top-five upside if the quarterback situation works itself out.
Toss Brock Bowers’ 2025 season in the trash. All of it. In the trash. He sustained a PCL injury in Week 1 that he attempted to play through all year. He eventually landed on season-ending IR before Week 17 after gutting through 12 games last season. Despite playing on one leg for the entire season, Bowers still ranked 13th in yards per route run and first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data). To understand Bowers’ 2026 upside and talent, we need to rewind to 2024 when he was the TE3 in fantasy points per game. During that season, he was seventh in target per route run rate, sixth in yards per route run, third in receiving yards per game, second in first read share, and seventh in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). 2026 Brock Bowers could be 2025 Trey McBride and be the runaway TE1 for fantasy football, with little target competition existing on the Raiders’ depth chart to challenge him.
Late Round 2 Players to Target
Last year was another impressive year for Derrick Henry. He didn’t show any signs of slowing down with 307 rushing attempts, 1.595 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Henry ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Henry won’t contribute much in the passing game, but that’s a given at this point. It doesn’t crush his overall production, but it isn’t there to help add to his weekly floor. Henry had five games last year as RB25 or lower in weekly fantasy football scoring. I still want to invest in Henry as an RB1 again in 2026. If Lamar Jackson can bounce back, Henry could inch back closer to his 2024 production (RB4 in fantasy points per game). He’s at worst a low-end RB1 with top-five upside.
Nico Collins has now managed back-to-back-to-back WR1 seasons (WR9, WR8, WR7) in fantasy points per game. It’s impressive that Collins has managed to do this despite C.J. Stroud‘s struggles over the last two years. There’s no reason to doubt his ability to do it again this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Collins was 15th in target share (23.1%), eighth in receiving yards per game (74.5), fifth in deep targets (24), 16th in first-read share (28.1%), and 19th in first downs per route run (0.105, per Fantasy Points Data). Collins is an easy click in drafts with upside. If Stroud can flash even momentary glimpses of his rookie form in 2026, Collins could enter top-five receiver territory this season.
A.J. Brown has a new home in New England for the foreseeable future. Brown has been a WR1 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons (WR10, WR12, WR8, WR8), and I don’t see that stopping this season. He moves from an Eagles offense that was 15th in neutral passing rate to a Patriots system that was ninth in neutral passing rate and could climb even higher this season with the additions of Brown and Romeo Doubs this offseason. Brown could easily spike a career high in touchdowns this season. Last season, Philly was 32nd in passing rate inside the ten-yard line while the Patriots were 15th. That jump in touchdown fuel (if it all works out) could send him into top five status this season among fantasy football receivers. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Brown was ninth in target share (27.5%), 17th in yards per route run (2.23), eighth in first-read share (35%), and 20th in first downs per route run (0.104, per Fantasy Points Data). He was also 30th in separation score and 16th in route win rate among the same sample of receivers. While many will worry about Drake Maye spreading the ball around in 2026, I’m not because last year that was related to New England not having an alpha-level receiver like Brown on the depth chart. That isn’t the case now. Brown is a strong WR1 with more upside than he’s had in previous seasons because of the passing volume floor and ceiling for New England this year.
Round 3 Fantasy Football Targets
Last season was a monster breakout season for George Pickens as the WR5 in fantasy football points per game. His splits with CeeDee Lamb out and active were dramatic, but that doesn’t mean that Pickens wasn’t awesome in both realms. With Lamb in the huddle, Pickens averaged 15 fantasy points per game versus 24.2 with him out. Across that entire season with Lamb, that would have made Pickens the WR11 in fantasy points per game, and without him, he would have been the WR1 in fantasy points per game. With Lamb, Pickens had a 20.2% target share with 2.24 yards per route run, 77.1 receiving yards per game, a 25.2% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Without Lamb, those numbers jumped to a 23.6% target share, 3.14 yards per route run, 106.8 receiving yards per game, a 34.1% first-read share, and 0.154 first downs per route run. No matter how you slice it, Pickens was elite last year, and he should be a WR1 again this season in a pass-first Dallas offense.
Breece Hall had a tough time last year despite finishing as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. New York’s quarterback play was dreadful, and the offense overall was a mess, which led to them ranking 29th in points per game and red zone scoring opportunities per game. The good news is that despite those factors, he ran behind an offensive line that ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). New York’s offensive line remains largely intact while adding Dylan Parham to the mix to replace the often-injured and departed Alijah Vera-Tucker, so they could easily be a top-shelf unit in 2026. The Jets also added Geno Smith, Omar Cooper Jr., and Kenyan Sadiq to the mix, which will raise the ceiling and floor of the overall offensive environment. This is all great news for a back that was also fourth in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackle rate last year. Hall should enjoy more scoring opportunities this season and hopefully a bounce-back in the receiving department while finishing with a career-low 10.9% target share last season. Hall should be considered a top-shelf RB2 with RB1 upside.
DeVonta Smith steps into the clear WR1 chair for the Philly passing attack. Over the last two years, in a VERY small sample, he has proven that he can handle it. In three games since 2024, without A.J. Brown on the field, Smith has commanded a 32.9% target share while producing 2.65 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, I know the sample is tiny, but it is a signal that Smith can command WR1-level volume while remaining efficient. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was also 27th in separation and 28th in route win rate. Last year, he also drew a 22.7% target share while producing 2.03 yards per route run (22nd) and 0.089 first downs per route run (32nd). I expect all of those marks to improve in 2026 with Smith leading the way for Philly. He’s a WR1/2 with some upside and an extremely high floor.
Emeka Egbuka could crush his mid WR2 draft cost this season. He faded after Week 5 last year after he sustained a hamstring injury, and Baker Mayfield‘s injury severely impacted his ability to feed catchable targets to the receiving options in Tampa Bay. In Weeks 1-5, Egbuka was the WR3 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22.1% target share with 89 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, a 26.1% first-read share, and 0.104 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Had Egbuka kept up that pace all season, he would have ranked 19th in target share, third in receiving yards per game, fourth in yards per route run, 26th in first-read share, and 20th in first downs per route run. Sadly, he didn’t keep up that pace. In Weeks 6-18, despite still drawing a 23.1% target share with a 28.9% first-read share, Egbuka had only 41.1 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and 0.052 first downs per route run as the WR55 in fantasy points per game. If Egbuka had closed the season with the flurry of production instead of the other way around, fantasy football gamers would be foaming at the mouth to draft him this season. Consider me a rabid drafter hellbent upon drafting as much Egbuka as possible this season. Entering his second season with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan as his primary competition for targets, Egbuka can establish himself as the team’s clear WR1 and return WR1/2 production.
Last year, Javonte Williams was a massive surprise in fantasy football to everyone, including me. I was very bullish about his 2025 outlook, but I was hoping at best for a volume-driven RB2 residing in an explosive offense. Well, Williams crushed even my expectations as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, finishing with a career high 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His season was also a tale of two halves as he faded some down the back half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and scored nine total touchdowns as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 17.4 touches, 76.5 total yards, and scored only four total touchdowns as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Much of his fantasy stock drop was related to the fall in touchdown production, which can be simple variance. His deeper analytics back up that his play didn’t fall off on a per-touch efficiency standpoint. In Weeks 1-8, he had a 4.8% explosive run rate with an 11% missed tackle rate and 3.52 yards after contact per attempt. That yards-after-contact-per-attempt mark is otherworldly. In Weeks 8-17, he posted a 5.5% explosive run rate with a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. He improved his marks down the stretch in two of those three categories. If Williams can post production as he did over the first half of the 2025 season for an entire year, he is a locked-in top ten back with top-five upside. At his floor, he looks like a low-end RB1 or top 15 fantasy back.
Over the last two seasons, Tee Higgins has been the WR13 and WR5 in fantasy points per game. Last season, with Joe Burrow under center in Weeks 14-18, Higgins had an 18.8% target share with 67.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 yards per route run, a 25.6% first-read share, and 0.106 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are all incredibly impressive per-route metrics. For context, if Higgins had kept up that pace for an entire season with Burrow, he would have ranked 12th in receiving yards per game, 19th in yards per route run, 28th in first-read share, and 17th in first downs per route run among wideouts (minimum 200 routes). Higgins is a strong bet for fantasy football again this season. If Joe Burrow can stay healthy this season, Higgins should be a locked-in top-15 wideout with WR1 upside again.
Round 4 Fantasy Football Targets
Last year, Zay Flowers posted career-best marks across the board with 86 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards, and a WR12 finish in fantasy points per game. It was amazing to see for a player who also ranked eighth in target share (27.7%), 11th in receiving yards per game (71.2), seventh in yards per route run (2.61), and tenth in first-read share (33.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). While he also saw 19 deep targets last year, the big concern with him is his touchdown upside. Flowers has never had more than five receiving touchdowns in any season, and with only 11 red zone targets last year, it’s tough to project a huge spike in that this season, but there could be hope with the arrival of offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. I’m not projecting that Doyle heads into this season drawing up more usage for Flowers near the goal line, but it can’t possibly get any worse than it has been previously. He is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside again this year.
Sure, Colston Loveland disappointed last season if you only look at his overall stats as the TE15 in fantasy points per game, but that was because he was languishing in a part-time role for most of the season. It wasn’t until after Week 15 that Loveland was consistently featured as a full-time member of the offense. In Weeks 16-20, he exploded as the Bears’ WR1 with a 25.6% target share, 81.6 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, a 34% first-read share, 0.116 first downs per route run, and 17.2 PPR points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). If Loveland had produced like that throughout the season, he would have given Trey McBride a run for his money as the TE1 in fantasy football. Last year, those numbers, among all tight ends with at least 20 targets, would have ranked first, first, fourth, first, fourth, and second. If you compare those numbers against Trey McBride‘s 2025 season and Brock Bowers‘ 2024 campaign, Loveland would have beaten both players in every single category except for fantasy points per game in McBride’s 2025 season. Loveland could easily pick up right where he left off this season and compete with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for the TE1 crown. With D.J. Moore gone, Loveland has only Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III to compete with for the top spot in the target pecking order in Chicago.
Last year, before being lost to a knee injury (Weeks 1-6), Garrett Wilson was the WR10 in fantasy points per game. During that span, he commanded a 31.2% target share with 65.8 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, a whopping 45.9% first-read share, and 0.087 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). With more weapons installed around him this offseason (Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq), Wilson’s target share and first-read share could dip slightly, but he’ll still be the clear leader of the passing attack, with (hopefully) improved quarterback play from Geno Smith under center. Wilson is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside if the Jets’ new-look offense gels in 2026.
Luther Burden steps into a much larger workload in 2026. Last year (including the playoffs), Burden played at least 53% of the snaps in only five games. In those games, he had a 15.5% target share and 61.2 receiving yards per game, which is concerning, but his per-route metrics were outstanding, with 2.30 yards per route run, a 23.6% first-read share, and 0.120 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). There’s a lot of projection for Burden’s 2026 season. Last year, he was stellar overall per-route with a 26% target per route run rate (11th), 2.83 yards per route run (third), 0.117 first downs per route run (12th), and 0.56 fantasy football points per route run (eighth, among all wideouts with at least 200 routes). The hope and hype centered around Burden is that he can turn that small-sample hyper-efficiency into a marvelous season with a full-time workload. That could happen this year, and it sends him screaming up the weekly rankings for wide receivers, but Burden also has Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland to contend with for the top spot in the Chicago pecking order. Burden is best viewed as a WR2 with upside.
D.J. Moore’s stock took a tumble last year as he sank to WR41 in fantasy points per game. Moore has a new home for 2026 and beyond after being traded to Buffalo as Josh Allen‘s new WR1. He had a 14.3% target share with 1.33 yards per route run, a 17.5% first-read share, and 0.063 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of these numbers offer hope for 2026, but don’t tune out just yet because I’m getting to the hope segment of this outlook. Buffalo hasn’t had a dependable high-end target-share-earning receiving option since Stefon Diggs, and Joe Brady’s previous experience with Moore has him and the Bills believing he can return to that form in 2026. Moore’s deeper analytics agree with Brady’s. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Moore was 47th and 49th in separation score and route win rate. The numbers get even better when we look at him as a perimeter receiver, which he’ll be asked to do more than the 65% of the snaps that he played there last year. As an outside receiver last year, he ranked 36th in separation and 29th in route win rate among the same sample of receivers. Moore looks like a nice bounce-back candidate this season as a WR2/3 with upside for much more.
David Montgomery now finds himself as the Texans’ do-it-all workhorse for 2026. Last year, he was phased out of the Lions’ offensive plans as the season moved along, which led to his RB32 finish in fantasy football points per game. In Weeks 12-18, he ranked 43rd in fantasy points per game, with a 32.1% snap rate, 8.2 touches per game, and only 42.8 total yards per game. Montgomery still has the juice to produce as a workhorse this season. Last season, he ranked 30th in missed-tackle rate but 12th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His receiving chops are also still alive and well, as he was also 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Many will worry that Montgomery will split Houston’s backfield workload with Woody Marks this season, but I don’t see that happening. Montgomery should absorb a workload close to what Joe Mixon saw in 2024. In 2024, Mixon ranked fifth in opportunity share, 14th in snap share, and 13th in carries among running backs, finishing with 281 touches. Last season, Montgomery bested Marks in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run. Legit, every per-touch metric that I care about. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career, and he’ll be a strong volume-driven RB2 that could flirt with RB1 production.
Round 5 Fantasy Football Targets
Terry McLaurin experienced a steep drop-off last year after his banner WR14 campaign in 2024. Ultimately, the Washington offense took a massive step back, and McLaurin was dealing with a quad injury for much of last season, which limited him to ten games played. In those ten games, yes, he was the WR33 in fantasy football points per game, but his per-route metrics remained stellar. Among 109 qualifying receivers, McLaurin ranked 25th in target per route run rate (24%), 13th in yards per route run (2.38), fourth in first downs per route run (0.135), and 26th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz gone, only Antonio Williams and Chig Okonkwo were added to this receiving depth chart; McLaurin should return to his target hog WR2 ways in 2026. He’s a strong bounce-back candidate.
It’s Jaylen Waddle SZN! I can’t wait to see him ball out in the Denver passing attack. Waddle should get a wonderful infusion of volume this season, moving from an offense that was 29th in neutral passing rate to one that was fourth in that metric last season. Overall, Denver was fourth in passing attempts behind only Arizona, Cincy, and Dallas last year. Waddle is a stud no matter what metric you look at. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), he ranked 12th in target-per-route-run rate, 12th in yards-per-route-run, 7th in first downs-per-route-run, 12th in separation score, and 11th in route win rate. He also bested Courtland Sutton in each of those metrics with the exception of route win rate (15.3% vs. 15.5%). Waddle is a flag plant player for me this year. You can easily draft him as a WR2 for your teams this season, who has WR1 upside.
Once Joe Burrow returned to the huddle last year, he was the same stud quarterback that we have come to love in fantasy football as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch (Weeks 13-18), Burrow was 11th in CPOE, third in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With Burrow back under center, Cincy was fourth in neutral passing rate and seventh in neutral pace. I expect the Bengals to be a fast-paced, pass-happy offense again in 2026. Burrow is a rock-solid QB1 with top-3 upside with two stud wide receivers to lean on weekly.
D’Andre Swift arguably had a career year last season for the Bears as the RB16 in fantasy points per game. He finished with 257 touches and 1,386 total yards while splitting work with Kyle Monangai. Monangai’s presence didn’t hurt Swift a ton, as he was the RB20 in fantasy points per game after Monangai’s emergence in Week 9. During Weeks 10-18, Swift remained the preferred passing down back for Chicago with a 43% route share (Monangai 28.8%, per Fantasy Points Data), but he split up the red zone work with Monangai, with 18 red zone rushing attempts to Monangai’s 19. This is worrisome, but not something to freak out about in today’s NFL, where most teams are utilizing some form of committee approach. It was nice to see Swift’s efficiency numbers bounce back after a horrible 2024 season. Last year, he ranked 13th in explosive run rate, 11th in rushing success rate, and 20th in missed tackle rate. Swift should be a mid-range RB2 again this season.
Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy football drafts. Yes, he dealt with hamstring issues again last year, but that wasn’t the big limiting factor in his games played. That was related to a broken collarbone. For all the injury talk about Evans, before the 2025 season, he had never played fewer than 13 games in any season, and since 2020, he had played at least 14 games in every season. He might be older, but he hasn’t slowed down when you look at his metrics. Last year, during his seven full games played, he had a 24.4% target share, a 30.6% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers last year, those numbers would have ranked 13th-best across the board. Yes, during that sample, he had only 1.86 yards per route run and 52.6 receiving yards per game, which would have ranked 31st and 33rd among the same group of receivers, but that was more related to Baker Mayfield‘s inaccuracy than Evans slowing down. In his full games played, Evans had only a 70.9% catchable target rate, which among those 109 receivers would have ranked 84th. Evans’ on-field production didn’t match his deeper analytics and target-earning ability, as he was also second-best in separation and route win rate last season. If he can stay healthy this season, he should be one of the best values on the board for the fantasy season with WR1 upside.
Tyler Warren had a fantastic rookie season as the TE10 in fantasy points per game, but there was plenty of meat left on the bone that should have fantasy football gamers excited going into 2026. Warren was the TE4 in expected fantasy points per game last year. Let’s begin the convo there. He should naturally see some regression this season, even before we discuss the fact that the Colts moved on from Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason. Warren also ranked fifth in red zone targets and eighth in end zone targets last year among tight ends, and he only had four receiving touchdowns to show for it. Warren was excellent last year on a per-route basis. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he was sixth in target share, ninth in receiving yards per game, 18th in yards per route run and first downs per route run, and sixth in first-read-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). His target share and first-read share should increase this season with Pittman Jr. gone, and his per-route productivity should also improve if Daniel Jones can stay healthy for the entire season and be at least a shadow of his healthy self. Warren is a top-five tight end this season who could sniff top-three status if everything goes according to plan.
Drake Maye had a wonderful breakout season last year as the QB3 in fantasy points per game, and he could equal or surpass that this season. This offseason, New England gave Maye new weapons that could take this offense to another level with the additions of Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown. The Pats were ninth in neutral passing rate last season and could bump that up some more with Doubs and Brown in town. I’m painting the fever dream outcome for Maye, but none of this is impossible or even improbable. Maye will continue to add fantasy points weekly with his legs on top of the passing upside. Last year, Maye was 12th in rushing yards per game and seventh in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. As a passer, he was outstanding, ranking first in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, eighth in hero throw rate, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). Maye should be considered a strong top-five fantasy football quarterback option with the ability to push Josh Allen for the QB1 spot if everything goes his way in 2026.
Jadarian Price was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Seahawks to be their new Kenneth Walker (and maybe more). Walker led the backfield last year for Seattle, but they limited his usage in the red zone and in the passing game. Price remains an unknown in the passing game after only 13 targets over the last two collegiate seasons at Notre Dame, but he could easily surpass Walker’s red zone usage in 2205. It’s unknown when we’ll see Zach Charbonnet back to 100%, and outside of him, Price is competing with Emanuel Wilson and George Holani for work. Price is a wonderful rushing talent, ranking 25th and fifth in yards after contact per attempt, 31st and 3rd in breakaway rate, and 15th and 39th in elusive rating over the last two seasons in college (per PFF). Price is an intriguing RB2 with a ton of upside in 2026.
Round 6 Fantasy Football Targets
With Travis Etienne gone, Bhayshul Tuten will compete with Chris Rodriguez for the lead back role for the Jaguars in 2026. I want to bet on Tuten this year and his talent. Last year, Tuten was unfortunately robbed of the stretch run of his rookie season as he was sidelined by a finger injury. Before the injury, he was starting to make some noise. This could be the big breakout season for Tuten, who, on a per-touch basis, flashed the immense talent that I really liked when he was in college. Last season, among 55 qualifying backs, he ranked fifth in rushing success rate, 11th in missed tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez will remain a worry for Tuten at the goal line and to his overall touch count until we see his role fleshed out this season, but if he can be the clear lead guy, he has the talent to match Etienne’s RB13 finish last year in fantasy points per game.
Christian Watson got the bag this offseason and should be considered the clear WR1 for the Green Bay Packers. Watson deserved the payday as he proved that he could handle this role last year. Last season, in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 2.67 yards per route run, a 23.9% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His target share and first-read share should go up this season with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and Watson likely getting promoted into a full-time role. Last year, he was also held back by a 68% route share (56th out of 109 qualifying receivers). The increase in usage and playing time should make his ultra-efficiency per route even more deadly in 2026. Last year, among those 109 qualifying receivers, Watson ranked fourth in yards per route run, tenth in first downs per route run, and sixth in fantasy football points per route run. Watson is a strong WR2 with upside for more in 2026.
Drafting Carnell Tate is a bet on talent and Cam Ward‘s ability to take off in his second season with Brian Daboll calling plays. I want to bet on Tate as I’m in love with the talent. Tate is an amazing route runner who can separate at all three levels of the field after ranking tenth in yards per route run and fourth in receiving grade last season (per PFF). He finished college with an otherworldly 68.8% contested-catch rate and had zero drops in his final season despite a 14.6 aDOT. Tate will have to contend with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley for the WR1 spot in the Tennessee offense, but he has the talent to be the clear WR1 from Week 1. It just comes down to how quickly he can hit the ground running and how many weapons Ward can support in 2026. I’ll be drafting Tate a ton.
Last year, the Eagles offense hit a rut, and Jalen Hurts finished with his worst season (QB8) in fantasy points per game since becoming the full-time starter in 2021. While Hurts was still heavily involved on the ground near the goal line (fourth in rushing touchdowns and second in red zone carries), he also finished with the second-fewest rushing yards per game (26.3) of his career. There are big-time questions about whether Hurts can bounce back this season after the struggles of last season, the loss of A.J. Brown, and the Eagles transitioning to another new offensive coordinator who could emphasize utilizing the middle of the field. Last year, among 45 qualifying passers, Hurts ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE, 25th in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). I’ll be surprised if his rushing numbers don’t rebound. The Eagles still have plenty of receiving talent in-house with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and with their offseason additions of Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers, Dontayvion Wicks, and Hollywood Brown. I’m not shying away from buying the dip with Hurts despite the worries. Hurts has proven doubters wrong time and time again while improving as a player and passer along the way, going all the way back to college. Hurts still has top 3-5 upside in fantasy football.
Last year, Dak Prescott directed an offense that was 13th in neutral passing rate and ninth in neutral pace en route to a QB7 finish (Weeks 1-17) in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying passers, Prescott was tenth in yards per attempt, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams all still in the fold, I don’t see a reason to expect Dallas or Prescott to slow down this season. Prescott had only a 5% passing touchdown rate last year, so there’s still some meat on the bone for Prescott to be even better this season for an offense that was fifth in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game (16th in red zone touchdown percentage). Prescott is a locked-in QB1 that could be a top-five option if they can put more touchdowns in the end zone in 2026.
Jordyn Tyson lands with the New Orleans Saints and should be the immediate second target in an ascending passing game led by Tyler Shough. Over the last two collegiate seasons, Tyson has ranked 60th and 11th in yards per route run and 12th and 15th in receiving grade (per PFF). Hopefully, Tyson has kicked the injury bug that plagued him in college. If so, he could take off in his rookie season for a team that could easily be pass-happy. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, New Orleans was fifth in neutral passing rate and 11th in pass rate over expectation. Tyson’s ceiling and floor this season are attached to his ability to stay healthy and the intriguing arm of Shough.
Round 7 Fantasy Football Targets
Parker Washington finished last season with a flurry of insane production; if he picks up right where he left off, he’ll be one of the best picks in fantasy football this season. Last year, in Weeks 16-19, Washington asserted himself as the Jags’ clear WR1. During that stretch, he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game while soaking up six red zone targets and 13 deep targets (per Fantasy Points Data). In those four games, he had a 28.9% target share, 113.5 receiving yards per game, 3.78 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Those are all absolutely elite metrics, no matter how you slice it. There’s some uncertainty about how the Jags target hierarchy sifts out this season with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter healthy. Each player could effectively put a dent in Washington, putting up monster numbers in 2026, but that risk is baked into Washington’s price in drafts. He’s a wonderful upside swing in the later rounds.
Rhamondre Stevenson was the Pats’ lead back last year as the RB21 in fantasy points per game, and I don’t see that changing in 2026. Stevenson was amazing on a per-touch basis, and he bested TreVeyon Henderson in EVERY discernible metric that I care about. Last year, Stevenson was fifth in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Stevenson also surpassed Henderson in yards per route run (1.41 vs. 0.98) and pass protection. Unless Stevenson falls off in 2026, he should remain the lead back for New England after playing at least 57% of the snaps in nine of his 14 games played in 2025. Stevenson should be a nice value for fantasy football managers again this season.
Tony Pollard remains the clear leadback for the Titans entering the 2026 season. Last year, he ranked 15th in snap share, 17th in opportunity share, and 16th in weighted opportunities, but because of the putrid offensive situation he found himself in, he was only the RB29 in fantasy football points per game. This can be traced to his five total touchdowns, which were a result of an offense that was 30th in points per game and 32nd in red zone scoring attempts per game, so it makes sense that he also ranked 49th in red zone touches. Pollard was still solid on a per-touch basis. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 25th in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Brian Daboll, his new offensive coordinator, has historically ridden one running back in his offenses, and Pollard looks to be that guy this season. Pollard should find running room in 2026 with Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson added to the passing game, improved play from Cam Ward, and an offensive line that last year was quietly 13th-best in yards before contact per attempt. Pollard will be lingering in the RB3 range in plenty of drafts, but I think he returns strong RB2 value and production this season.
Round 8 Fantasy Football Targets
Last year, Kyle Pitts had a tale of two seasons. Yes, overall, it was a wonderful year as the TE5 in fantasy points per game and easily his best statistical season since his rookie year, but it was wildly different with Drake London in and out of the lineup. Without London, Pitts had a 26.7% target share with 84.4 receiving yards per game, 2.81 yards per route run, a 27.8% first-read share, 0.120 first downs per route run, and 19 fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are all elite numbers, and if Pitts had put up those stats all year, especially the fantasy points per game, he would have been the TE1 for fantasy football. The problem is that with Drake London active, Pitts had a 19% target share, 42.2 receiving yards per game, 1.43 yards per route run, a 20.2% first-read share, 0.093 first downs per route run, and 9.6 fantasy points per game. All of those per-route metrics were still quite strong, but the fantasy points per game mark would have made Pitts the TE20 last year. With Kevin Stefanski in town and a passing attack that boils down to London and Pitts at the top alongside Bijan Robinson, the reality of Pitts’ 2026 projection falls somewhere in the middle of all of this. He’s a strong TE1 that still has top-five upside if Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. can give Atlanta at least league-average quarterback play all season.
Before his 2025 season was lost to a back injury, Sam LaPorta was the TE7 in fantasy points per game. Despite the injury-shortened season, he was still one of the most explosive tight ends in the NFL on a per-route basis. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he ranked tenth in target share (17.8%), sixth in receiving yards per game (54.3), fifth in yards per route run (2.14), and eighth in first downs per route run (0.100, per Fantasy Points Data). The concerning thing for LaPorta during those nine games was his six red zone targets and only one end zone target. Considering the light usage near paydirt, it’s not shocking that he had only three touchdowns. That is worrisome, but touchdowns can be a fickle game to project year-to-year. Painting a positive light on that usage is the fact that, despite those numbers, LaPorta was still second on the team in not only target share but red zone targets during that stretch. The arrival of Drew Petzing as the offensive coordinator should be viewed as a plus for LaPorta if we are to extract anything from his time in Arizona and his usage of Trey McBride. LaPorta should turn in a strong 2026 season as a top-eight fantasy football tight end with top-five upside.
Rico Dowdle did it again last season. Dowdle fought to get to the top of the Carolina running back depth chart as he wrestled the starting job away from Chuba Hubbard. In Weeks 5-18, Dowdle averaged 18.6 touches and 87.7 total yards as the RB10 in fantasy points per game. Dowdle also excelled last season on the ground and in the receiving game. He ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, tenth in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in yards per route run, and 16th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After that strong season, Dowdle now finds himself reunited with Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh as a backfield complement to Jaylen Warren. The division of the Steelers’ running back workload is up in the air for the 2026 season, but I won’t count against Dowdle’s ability to rise to the competition for RB1 duties. We’ll likely see a committee approach for Pittsburgh this season, but Dowdle could easily return RB2 value, if not strong flex value, this season.
Last year, once taking over as the Giants starter, Jaxson Dart was the QB7 in fantasy points per game. If you remove the wet fart game he had in Week 16 against Minnesota, where he scored only 1 fantasy point and had 13 pass attempts for 33 passing yards, he averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game. That points-per-game mark would have made him the QB1 in fantasy points per game last year. Dart showed off his rushing ability, averaging seven rushing attempts and 40.6 rushing yards per game. He had the second-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks last year behind only Justin Fields. Dart also wasn’t a lackluster passer last year. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 23rd in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Dart was also fifth in fantasy points per dropback while dealing with the 12th-highest drop rate among quarterbacks. Dart is positioned to be a strong QB1 again this year with upside.
If you’re not respecting Brock Purdy at this point as a strong QB1, I really don’t know what to tell you. Over the last three seasons, he has finished as the QB5, QB10, and QB6 in fantasy football points per game. In his four years in the NFL, he has finished with a passing touchdown rate lower than 7.0% only once. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy was sixth in passing yards per game, ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). Purdy will again be a QB1 that goes far too late in drafts in 2026.
Later Round Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Target
Last year, Bo Nix regressed as a passer and with his overall production, yet he was still the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Nix saw his passing touchdown rate fall from 5.1% to 4.1%, and his rushing yards per game dip from 25.3 to 20.9 (16th). He still directed a passing offense that was fifth in neutral passing rate and tenth in neutral pace. I don’t see either of those figures changing in 2026. With the addition of Jaylen Waddle, Denver could be even more pass-happy this season, too. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 31st in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, 19th in hero throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). If Nix can bounce back or take another positive step in his career, he could be a top 5-7 quarterback in fantasy football in 2026.
Last year, we only got to see Kyler Murray for five games. In the previous six seasons, he had never finished lower than QB12 in fantasy points per game. Could he be a QB1 in 2026 with the Minnesota Vikings? Yep, it’s possible. We’ll see how the quarterback camp battle shakes out with Murray against J.J. McCarthy, but I’d be shocked if Murray isn’t starting Week 1, with how his contract is structured and him choosing Minny over a bunch of other destinations. Last year, in his limited starting sample before being sidelined with a foot injury, Murray had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest aDOT, and the fifth-lowest hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers will make you feel warm and fuzzy, but the risk is essentially priced into Murray’s ADP while his upside as a QB1 hasn’t been. I have never been a Murray fan, but at this price point, I’m willing to take the occasional late-round swing on him in 2026.
Tyler Shough is a wonderful late-round quarterback who could be a QB1 in 2026. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Shough was the QB6 in fantasy points per game while averaging 25 rushing yards per game. That rushing yardage mark per game would have placed him at 12th-best last year had he kept it up for the entire season. In Weeks 12-18, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 12th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, ninth in hero throw rate, and seventh in passing yards per game (per Fantasy Points Data). With Travis Etienne, Bryce Lance, Oscar Delp, and Jordyn Tyson added to the offensive firepower this offseason, I expect the Saints offense to take another leap this season if Shough is up to the task, which his strong finish to last season says he is primed for.
Yes, I understand Jordan Love has been a mid-range QB2 over the last two years (QB17, QB16) since his massive breakout in 2023 (QB5), but that hasn’t been because Love sucks. He has been locked in a run-first, run-always offense. Could that still be the case this year? Possibly, but if Green Bay increases its pass rate to even league-average standards (last year Weeks 1-15, eighth-best in neutral rushing rate), Love could return to QB1 land. Love has proven over the last three seasons that he can sustain above-average passing touchdown rates (5.5%, 5.9%, 5.2%), so I don’t see him backsliding in that category. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Love was eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in hero throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and 13th (tied) in fantasy football points per dropback. Love’s QB2 production is priced into his ADP; his upside as a QB1 is not.
Is Malik Willis in a tough spot in Miami? Sure. Could this offense outperform expectations in a number of ways? Absolutely. Greg Dulcich was outstanding on a per-route basis last year. Their receiver room is unproven and full of castoffs, but talented rookies like Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman Jr. could open some eyes in 2026 along with Willis. I know the starting resume for Willis is limited. I get it. What we have seen in limited doses over the last two years has been outstanding, though. Over the last two seasons, Willis has posted a 5.6% big-time throw rate (118 dropbacks, per PFF), 10.9 yards per attempt, and averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game. Last year, among all quarterbacks with at least 110 dropbacks, that big-time throw rate would have ranked eighth-best behind Caleb Williams, and his yards per attempt mark would have led the NFL. That rushing yardage mark per game over the last three years would have ranked first, fourth, and third among quarterbacks. Willis’s running prowess should have him flirting with QB1 production this year alone. If he and this offense surpass lowly expectations through the air, Willis would be a strong QB1 with upside in 2026.
Later Round Fantasy Football Skill Players to Target
Kenneth Gainwell was an integral part of the Pittsburgh backfield last year for the entire season, but he really hit his stride in Weeks 11-18 as the RB7 in fantasy points per game with 13.3 touches and 85 total yards per game. His passing game was robust during this stretch as he was third in target share (17.5%), second in receiving yards per game (45.4), fourth in yards per route run (2.10), and first in first downs per route run (0.116, per Fantasy Points Data). That also isn’t to say that he wasn’t fantastic on early downs, ranking 14th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate overall for the season among backs. Gainwell will play a prominent role for his new team (Tampa Bay) this season as a complement to Bucky Irving. Irving has had a substantial list of injuries that he has dealt with during his short career, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gainwell is leading the backfield some weeks in 2026 with a solid standalone role when Irving is active. Gainwell could easily return RB2 value in 2026 if everything falls in his favor. He definitely carries more fantasy football appeal in PPR formats, though.
J.K. Dobbins returns to Denver this season as their early down hammer. It’s tough to count on him for a full season at this point, but while he’s out there, he should be a nice RB2/flex play this season. Last year, Dobbins did see his season cut short with a foot injury. In Weeks 1-10, he was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.4 touches and 80.6 total yards. The bulk of that work was in the rushing department, as he averaged only 1.4 targets and 3.7 receiving yards per game. He had only four games in which he saw more than one target, and he never saw more than two targets in any game. Dobbins was on pace for 260 carries and 1,313 rushing yards before his injury, so his value on early downs is quite nice. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked third in explosive run rate and eighth in missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Dobbins should return RB2/touchdown-dependent flex value this season.
Ricky Pearsall is reaching make-or-break territory. Last year was another injury-marred campaign, as he was limited to nine games played with a PCL sprain that plagued him all year, essentially. Pearsall still flashed when he was on the field, with four top-24 weekly finishes in those nine games (WR20, WR11, WR21, WR22). Last year, Pearsall only drew a 17.4% target share, but he averaged 58.7 receiving yards with 2.02 yards per route run and 0.103 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Pearsall ranked 23rd in yards per route run and 22nd in first downs per route run. On a per-route basis, Pearsall was excellent. Yes, Mike Evans was added to this offense along with Christian Kirk and De’Zhaun Stribling. I don’t see Kirk or Stribling impacting Pearsall’s role and volume in this offense if he can stay healthy. If Pearsall can finally put together a full, healthy 17-game season, this could be his breakout year. I’ll take that shot late in drafts all the time.
Last year, Wan’Dale Robinson had his best season to date, easily, with a true breakout campaign as the WR14 in fantasy football points per game. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 11th in target share (26.8%), 15th in receiving yards per game (63.4), 28th in yards per route run (1.94), and 11th in first-read share (32.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). A huge change for Robinson was that he wasn’t just a checkdown or underneath option anymore, as his aDOT rose to 8.7 and he was 21st among that sample of receivers in deep targets. This season, Robinson will have more target competition alongside Carnell Tate and Calvin Ridley, but I expect him to be the clear WR2 in the offense. It’s wonderful that he stays tied to Brian Daboll in Tennessee, who oversaw his breakout and usage last year, which gives me hope for his 2026 outlook. His floor and ceiling this season will be tied to Cam Ward taking a big step with this new coaching staff. If that happens, Robinson could be a weekly WR2/3 this season.
Jonathon Brooks is a wonderful wild-card pick for 2026 with big-time upside if he is 100% and ready to rock. Brooks has had enough time recuperating from his second torn ACL that he should enter camp this season and Week 1 fully healthy. Chuba Hubbard lost his starting job to Rico Dowdle last season, and Carolina let him walk in the offseason. Outside of Brooks and Hubbard, Carolina has only Trevor Etienne and A.J. Dillon on the roster, so Carolina is heavily betting on Brooks to return to his collegiate form. Brooks could pull an Uncle Rico from last year and steal Hubbard’s starting job in 2026. Just to remind everyone about the talent that Brooks has, in 2024 (his final collegiate season), he ranked 21st in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in elusive rating, and 21st in yards per route run (per PFF). I’ll be drafting Brooks a ton this season.
Isaiah Likely’s 2025 season was crushed by a foot injury that he sustained in the preseason. I can’t honestly tell you that he was fully healthy last season, or when that occurred, if so. I’m tossing his 2025 campaign in the trash. So, let’s be kind and rewind to 2024. During that season, among 57 qualifying tight ends, Likely ranked 17th in target per route run rate, tenth in yards per route run, and eighth in first downs per route run and fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After signing a lucrative deal with the Giants this offseason, Likely should be their clear starting tight end and a strong part of their passing game, with only Darnell Mooney, Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin, and Malachi Fields to contend with for targets behind Malik Nabers. Likely could easily be a solid TE1 this season and is worth a late-round dart in a ton of drafts in 2026.
Romeo Doubs lands with the New England Patriots and should be Drake Maye‘s clear WR2 behind A.J. Brown. He should see a volume bump with the Pats, simply moving from an offense that was 30th in neutral passing rate last year (Green Bay) to one that was ninth in neutral passing rate. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats increase their neutral passing rate this season, either with the arrival of Brown and Doubs and Drake Maye having another year in Josh McDaniels’ offensive system. Also add in Green Bay’s love of rotating receivers and Doubs 72.8% route share last year, and it’s not difficult to see Doubs being a late-round value. Last year, Doubs was the WR43 in fantasy points per game with five weeks in weekly scoring as a top 25 fantasy football wideout. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers, Doubs was 36th in target per route run rate, 31st in yards per route run, 18th in first downs per route run, and 27th in fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Also among those 109 receivers, Doubs was 23rd in separation and fifth in route win rate. He’s primed to explode this season with WR2/3 upside if everything goes right.
Last year was the second time in Dallas Goedert’s career that he finished as a top-six fantasy football tight end (TE6 in fantasy points per game). Goedert accomplished this by spiking a career-high a career high 11 receiving touchdowns. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranked eighth in target share (18.4%), 33rd in yards per route run (1.43), 17th in receiving yards per game (39.4), eighth in first-read share (21%), seventh in red zone targets (15), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.083, per Fantasy Points Data). With A.J. Brown out of town, Goedert could easily be the clear second option in the Eagles’ passing attack this season. I wouldn’t rule out Goedert finishing as a top-six fantasy tight end again in 2026. At his floor, he’s a strong TE1 even with the additions of Hollywood Brown, Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon, and Eli Stowers this offseason.
I want to take shots on the Browns’ passing attack in drafts this season. I don’t know whether KC Concepcion or Denzel Boston will be the team’s number one wide receiver this season, but I do think it will be one of these talented rookies. If Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson can provide at least league-average quarterback play for this offense, one of these rookies (maybe both) will emerge as a nice value for fantasy football gamers. Concepcion was one of my favorite receivers in this last draft class after finishing his collegiate career, ranked 26th in yards after the catch per reception and 44th in yards per route run in his final season (per PFF). Concepcion can threaten a defense at all three levels while offering positional versatility, having played the slot and on the perimeter in college.
Boston is a different beast as a prototypical X receiver. My comp for him as a prospect was Courtland Sutton. Boston is an underrated route runner with catch point prowess, as he was fifth-best in contested catch rate in his final season (minimum ten contested targets). He also has a soft set of dependable hands with 4.5% and 3.1% drop rates across his final two collegiate seasons. I’m not opposed to drafting both of these receivers on the same team and letting it play out during the early parts of the season. With both rookies getting drafted late, it’s not a difficult decision to send one of them to the waiver wire if necessary.
Mark Andrews is coming off easily his worst season in the NFL as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Baltimore limited his playing time, as he was 22nd in route share (62.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). I’m expecting that to rebound in 2026 with Isaiah Likely gone, but we still have to see it materialize. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Andrews was ninth in first read share, but his yards per route run (41st) and first downs per route run (27th) were nothing to write home about. He’s worth taking a flier on late in drafts as your tight end two with the hopes that he can rebound with more playing time in a new offensive system and give us a throwback season in 2026.
Last year, Jacory Croskey-Merritt had an up-and-down season as the RB41 in fantasy points per game. Washington didn’t trust him as a passing game option, and he was in and out of the starting lineup as the team also leaned on other backs like Chris Rodriguez. In 2025, Croskey-Merritt had four top-24 finishes in weekly scoring while also popping in rushing efficiency metrics. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 26th in explosive run rate, 19th in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in yards per carry on zone runs, and ninth in one rushing success rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Croskey-Merritt is only a dice roll worth making this season as he’ll be competing with Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, and Jerome Ford for the starting job and work in 2026. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him seize the starting gig this season and return low-end RB2 value.
I’m not opposed to drafting Bill and Rachaad White on the same team and letting this situation play out in the first few weeks of the season, and cutting bait with the loser of the starting competition. White could easily win the job over Bill when it’s all said and done. Over the last two seasons, with Bucky Irving in town, Rachaad White was a more effective per-touch player, but with Irving out of the lineup last year, he proved again that he can carry the mail (although he was horribly inefficient). Last season, in Weeks 5-12, White averaged 14.6 touches and 60 total yards while seeing 71% of the snaps. During that span, White was the RB23 in fantasy football points per game with a 1.2% explosive run rate, a 14% missed tackle rate, and only 1.52 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Both of these Washington backs are solid late dart throws.
We should always be looking to take swings on talented second-year wide receivers for fantasy football, and Jayden Higgins fits the bill as a possible late-round breakout candidate for 2026. Last year, in Weeks 8-18, Higgins had seven finishes as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring. During that stretch, Higgins, among 119 qualifying receivers, also ranked 24th in target per route run rate (24%) and 38th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). During those 11 games, among the same group of 119 receivers, Higgins was also 28th in yards per route run and 25th in route win rate as a perimeter receiver. If C.J. Stroud can at least be a league-average passer in 2026, Higgins could be a weekly WR2/3 or flex option. He also has contingent upside if Nico Collins misses any time.
Jonah Coleman walks into the Denver depth chart as the RB3 with the ability to climb the depth chart. If J.K. Dobbins is unable to stay healthy this year, Coleman could assume the early down duties opposite R.J. Harvey. If Harvey can’t continue to grow and improve after his rookie season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Coleman hop Harvey on the depth chart and become the passing-down option for Denver. Over his last three collegiate seasons, Coleman ranked 54th, 13th, and 1st in yards after contact per attempt and 61st, sixth, and fourth in elusive rating (per PFF). In two of those three seasons, he was also top 24 in yards per route run. Coleman is a wonderful late-round dart to toss in fantasy football drafts in 2026.
It wouldn’t shock me at all if Jalen Nailor steps up as the clear number two option for the Raiders this season behind Brock Bowers through the air. Nailor isn’t facing stiff competition from Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton, and company. Yes, last year Nailor had only a 10.3% target share, 1.19 yards per route run, and a 10.8% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those metrics will or should get you excited, but when we dig deeper, his per-route numbers are QUITE INTERESTING. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 33rd in separation and 51st in route win rate. As a perimeter receiver among the same sample, his numbers look even better (141 routes) as he was sixth-best in separation and 13th in route win rate. Nailor is the final pick in a draft that could pay dividends and become a weekly WR3 or flex if it all works out.
I know that at the time of writing this, Stefon Diggs is a free agent, but I want to draft him anyway. Diggs had a strong 2025 season that proved that he has plenty left in the tank to post a strong fantasy football season in 2026. Last year, he was the WR23 in fantasy points per game with only a 65.4% route share (62nd out of 109 qualifying receivers). Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was stellar on a per-route basis, ranking 22nd in target per route run rate (25%), 20th in receiving yards per game (59.6), and eighth in yards per route run (2.53) and first downs per route run (0.127, per Fantasy Points Data). Diggs could be a WR2/3 again this season, depending upon his landing spot.
Greg Dulcich could be THE late-round tight end to draft in 2026. Last year, he was absolutely awesome when on the field. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he was fifth in target-per-route-run rate (24%), second in yards per route run (2.64) and yards after the catch per reception (7.69), fifth in first downs per route run (0.110), and sixth in fantasy points per route run (0.50, per Fantasy Points Data). Miami is starved for capable pass catchers for Malik Willis, and with only Will Kacmarek, Seydou Traore, and Ben Sims behind him on the tight end depth chart, Dulcich should be the Dolphins’ every-down tight end. I won’t be surprised if he finishes the season as a TE1.
Yes, as you can see above, we have reached the late-round Dolphins portion of the article. I fully believe that there will be value in this passing attack to mine for the 2026 season, so I’m going to be taking stabs at this receiver depth chart in a number of drafts. The two talented rookies that I have my eye on from the receiver room are Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman Jr. With only Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, and Tutu Atwell ahead of them in the projected pecking order, it’s not difficult to see either Bell or Coleman Jr. emerging this season. For Bell, it’s a question of health and how quickly Miami ramps him up this season (torn ACL in his final collegiate season). The talent isn’t really the issue. In his final collegiate season, Bell ranked 36th in yards per route run and 19th in receiving grade (per PFF). Coleman Jr. will have to earn his way up the depth chart as a fifth-round pick in the NFL Draft, but I think he can do this considering the depth chart and his talent. Coleman Jr. was a love list player for me during the pre-draft process. During his final two collegiate seasons, he posted 2.23 and 2.32 yards per route run, while ranking 17th and fifth in missed tackles forced (per PFF). Coleman Jr. could easily be the team’s starting slot receiver in short order and return flex value if Malik Willis is as good as I think he is. This is a passing attack that everyone is leaving for dead, and while I understand that viewpoint, I also think that the masses could be wrong, and this receiver room could surprise people in 2026.
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