When looking for possible sleepers this year, I made sure they checked four boxes. They possess a lot of talent, they’re in a good environment (pieces around them should elevate their efficiency and not worsen it), they have a lot of opportunities (should see lots of touches), and most importantly, they’re being drafted too low.
Here are the four players I believe check these four boxes.
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Since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting QB for the Packers, Green Bay’s WR1 has averaged 18.0 PPR points per game. In his 14 years as the starter, the Packers have produced a top-25 PPR scoring wide receiver every single season. Allen Lazard is currently being drafted as the WR49 in fantasy leagues.
With Davante Adams and his 169 targets gone, Lazard should take over that role. He is currently the first wide receiver on the depth chart, and Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating went up from 111.4 to 134.7 (+23.3) when he threw to Allen Lazard in 2021.
I’m going to give you the statistics of two players over the last three years.
Player A is averaging 4.27 yards per carry (36th among RBs). He’s forced a missed tackle on 11.6% of his runs. He’s averaging 2.95 yards after contact (according to Pro Football Focus).
Player B is averaging 5.06 yards per carry (second among RBs). He’s forced a missed tackle on 22.8% of his runs. He’s averaging 3.83 yards after contact (according to Pro Football Focus).
Player A is Ezekiel Elliott.
Player B is Tony Pollard.
Pollard has averaged more yards per carry, yards after contact, and forced more missed tackles than Ezekiel Elliott per carry over the last three years. In terms of receiving, Pollard caught 84% of his passes compared to Zeke’s 72% last year. Pollard also averaged more yards per carry than Elliott did yards per target (4.42) last season.
Elliott is being drafted as the RB15 in PPR leagues, while Pollard is ranked as the RB31 on FantasyPros.
Elliott is being drafted as the RB1 on the depth chart, but don’t be surprised if Pollard takes over.
With Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley out the door, Josh Allen currently has 199 targets up for grabs. And when the stakes were highest against Kansas City in the divisional round, Gabriel Davis was used heavily, receiving 10 targets and catching four touchdowns in that contest. When he was targeted, Davis was wildly efficient; According to Sports Info Solutions, 28% of Davis’ targets were uncatchable. But of the 44 catchable targets, Davis caught 80% of them and averaged a ridiculous 13.6 yards per target.
Gabriel Davis has an extremely underrated blend of talent, situation, and opportunity going into this year. His efficiency numbers are off the charts, Josh Allen is throwing him passes, and there is a vast amount of open targets in Buffalo. What more could you ask for?
Davis is currently being drafted as the WR30 and 82nd overall in fantasy leagues.
Of all 32 teams in the entire NFL, nobody has more open targets than the Tennessee Titans (351), which means Treylon Burks could see great volume immediately. Last year, the Arkansas product led all FBS receivers (min. 80 targets) in yards after the catch per reception (9.3). He also had a 155.3 passer rating when thrown to, which was the second-highest mark in college football last season.
Since Ryan Tannehill joined the Tennessee Titans, the Titans’ passing attack has been incredibly efficient. Tannehill ranks in the top 10 among NFL QBs in passer rating, QBR, and fantasy points since 2019. Albeit, the Titans aren’t necessarily a pass-heavy offense, but there are not many better situations for Burks than the one he is in right now: an efficient quarterback with not much else to throw to.
You can’t argue with his talent. There’s a reason the Titans were willing to trade their Pro-Bowl WR, A.J. Brown, and snag him in the first round. If you don’t believe me, watch the Alabama tape (10 receptions, 175 yards, 2 TDs). The opportunity and environment are there as well; 67% of Tennessee’s targets are out the door, and Tannehill has been one of the most efficient passers in the league since 2019. But despite all of this, Burks currently has an ADP of WR38.
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