Thursday night’s main slate is medium-sized, featuring eight games. It starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Below, check out the four highlighted pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts suggested for usage on tonight’s MLB DFS slate.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A multi-time Cy Young Award winner is the No. 1 pitcher on tonight's slate. Behind him, two veteran righties are rock-solid options. Finally, a lefty who converted from relieving to starting is an intriguing GPP SP2 at DK.
Thursday night’s main slate is medium-sized, featuring eight games. It starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Below, check out the four highlighted pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts suggested for usage on tonight’s MLB DFS slate.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A multi-time Cy Young Award winner is the No. 1 pitcher on tonight's slate. Behind him, two veteran righties are rock-solid options. Finally, a lefty who converted from relieving to starting is an intriguing GPP SP2 at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (HOU) at CLE
Verlander is attempting to add a third American League Cy Young Award to his collection. According to FanGraphs, in 19 starts totaling 124.0 innings, he's had a 1.81 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 0.87 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 25.6 K% and 26.3 CSW%. Clearly, Verlander hasn't skipped a beat in his return from essentially a two-year absence recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He has a challenging matchup tonight, though. The Guardians have been a top-10 offense against righties as well as over the last 30 days. Nevertheless, the betting info is good. According to Betting Pros, Houston is -200, and the game's total is just 7.5 runs. Therefore, Verlander is a superb pick across all game types tonight.
Noah Syndergaard (PHI) vs. WSH
Syndergaard will attempt to stay in good form with his new team, the Phillies. In his previous seven starts, he's had a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 22.0 K%. Thor has allowed no more than three runs in six of his last seven games, pitched at least five innings in five of those games and struck out at least five batters five times.
He has an excellent chance to shine tonight against the shell of the Nationals in the wake of trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell. If you don't believe me, believe the betting info. The Phillies are a sizable -250 favorite. As a result, there isn't a good reason to overthink this pick.
GPP Recommendations:
Carlos Carrasco (NYM) vs. ATL
Carrasco has been pitching well in the summer months. In 11 starts since June 1, he's had a 3.62 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 24.6 K% and 27.3 CSW%. However, he's had a 1.44 WHIP during that stretch, creating a risk the Braves punish him for putting on traffic.
Beyond pitching well lately, Carrasco has succeeded at home. In 62.2 innings at Citi Field this year, he's had a 3.30 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and 22.4 K%. Still, the Braves are a difficult matchup, creating a risk that makes Carrasco a GPP-only selection. Fortunately, Atlanta's 25.2 K% against righties increases Carrasco's ceiling, which is what gamers should care about in GPPs. Thus, embracing the volatility of using Carrasco is a high-upside GPP maneuver.
Jeffrey Springs (TB) at DET
Springs has enjoyed a surprising amount of success since moving into Tampa Bay's rotation. But, unfortunately, he doesn't pitch deep into games. Springs has pitched fewer than five innings in three of his previous five starts.
Still, the southpaw showed the ability to hit that threshold in five consecutive starts from May 21 through June 12. So, Springs has the potential to pitch five-to-six innings if he's sharp. Additionally, he's had a penchant for punching batters out, striking out at least five in nine of his last 10 turns.
Since he's a long shot at having a quality start, Springs isn't a good lineup choice on FD's platform. However, he's a rock-solid value SP2 at DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
Houston added depth to their already talented lineup at the trade deadline, making them a nightmare for pitchers of any caliber. So, mediocre Zach Plesac, evidenced by his 4.33 ERA and 5.52 xERA, isn't equipped to slow the Astros. Since 2021, four hitters on the Astros have had at least a 130 wRC+ against righties, and only one has had less than a 97 wRC+. Therefore, the Astros are an excellent bet to light up the scoreboard tonight.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CWS -130
The White Sox have terrorized lefties this season. Despite navigating many injuries this year, they're third in wRC+ (120) against southpaws. At full strength now, the Pale Hose have a sky-high ceiling against a rookie lefty making his debut. Cole Ragans is getting the ball for the Rangers, and he's had a stellar 3.32 ERA in eight Triple-A starts. However, his 4.74 xFIP hasn't been as impressive. Thus, it's more likely he stumbles out of the blocks than shuts down Chicago's lefty-killing lineup.
- Yordan Alvarez has demolished everything this year. In 372 plate appearances, he's slugged 30 homers with a .409 OBP, .352 ISO and 196 wRC+.
- Tim Anderson is a sparkplug atop Chicago's lineup and a lefty-killer. Since 2021, he's had a .385 OBP, .214 ISO and 158 wRC+ against southpaws.
- Kyle Tucker has thrived in his career against righties on the road. In 449 plate appearances, he's mashed 26 taters with a .368 OBP, .295 ISO and 153 wRC+.
- The luck will eventually turn in Vinnie Pasquantino's favor. Per Baseball Savant, the rookie's .293 wOBA has been much lower than his .354 xwOBA. As a result, gamers should get ahead of Pasquantino's inevitable turnaround and gobble up the value he offers at nearly the minimum salary.
- Nick Madrigal isn't an exciting pick. However, he has the minimum salary on DK and a salary only $100 above the minimum on FD. Games could do worse than punting at the keystone with a hitter with a 100 wRC+ against lefties.
- AJ Pollock is a good selection at DK and a no-brainer at FD. Since 2019, he's had a .354 OBP, .264 ISO and 143 wRC+ against southpaws.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The hitter strategy tonight is simple. Gamers should invest heavily in the Astros and White Sox, punting where it's necessary to jam their boppers into the lineup.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
