5 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: Week 5 (2022)
“The bold adventurer succeeds the best.”
Now that draft season is over and we’re into the regular season, it’s time for weekly bold predictions.
The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.
We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 5. Their answers and justifications are below.
Week 5 Bold Predictions
Tyler Allgeier rushes for over 100 yards against the vaunted TB Buccaneers defense
Allgeier should see an expanded role with the injury to Cordarrelle Patterson, even if he splits carries with Caleb Huntley. Allgeier dominated the receiving usage, running a route on 40% of dropbacks. Huntley ran one route. And I think that the Falcons can run the football against a vaunted Buccaneers run defense that is overrated. Atlanta is the No.1-ranked offense in rush EPA on early downs this season and runs the ball at the third-highest rate on those downs. TB has allowed 4.0 yards per carry allowed to RBs this season. And per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Atlanta offensive line has the fourth-best advantage in the trenches. They have PFF’s second-highest-graded run-blocking unit this season. No. 1, you ask? The Chiefs, who just rushed for 189 yards on the Bucs defense in Week 4. Don’t be surprised when the rookie runs wild in Week 5. Allgeier was a mega-producer at BYU, ranking first in rushing yards after contact (1,847), second in rushing touchdowns (36) and third in PFF rushing grade (94.8) among FBS players with at least 150 carries.
– Andrew Erickson
James Robinson will be the RB1 this week vs the Houston Texans
The Texans have allowed the RB 1 or 2 overall in consecutive weeks. James Robinson is coming off a down game against a tough Eagles unit in the rain. However, he should be in for a huge bounce-back against this Houston defense that’s allowed 688 rushing yards on the season (second worst in the NFL).
– Joe Pisapia
Terry McLaurin is a top-five receiver in Week 5
McLaurin has been Washington’s field stretcher this year. This has been a roller coaster ride with Carson Wentz under center. While Wentz might not be any good, he’s shown that he has zero issues with cutting it loose, as he ranks second in deep attempts. Many of those have gone in the direction of McLaurin, who is second among wide receivers in deep targets. This week the downfield role will carry McLaurin to the top. Tennessee is 32nd in DVOA against deep passing (per Football Outsiders). They also rank 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. McLaurin is a top-five receiver this week.
– Derek Brown
Brandon Aiyuk will have 100+ yards and a touchdown.
Once Brandon Aiyuk got out of Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse last season, he was the WR13 in half-PPR fantasy scoring from Week 9 on. Aiyuk is still that guy. His numbers have been tamped down so far in 2022 because he played Week 1 in a Chicago monsoon and because two of the 49ers’ other three games have been blowout victories in which the Niners had a combined 51 pass attempts. (Aiyuk still had a healthy 23.5% target share in those two games.) The 49ers have a skinny target tree in the passing game, with Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel combining for 49% of team targets thus far. Deebo had 6-115-1 last week against the Rams, and it’s Aiyuk’s time to shine this week in Carolina.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris & Rhamondre Stevenson will combine for 400 yards of offense in the Patriots-Lions game
The Patriots offense is No. 1 in rush DVOA (23.6%) and No. 3 in rush EPA (0.095). The Lions offense is No. 2 in rush EPA (0.098) and No. 4 in rush DVOA (12.5%). Both of these teams like to run and can do it well. The Patriots could be without QBs Mac Jones (ankle) and Brian Hoyer (concussion), and the Lions could be without WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and D.J. Chark (ankle), so both offenses could funnel heavily through the running backs. And as it happens both defenses are horrible against the run: The Lions are No. 32 in both rush EPA (0.163) and rush DVOA (18.5%), while the Patriots are No. 29 in rush EPA (0.119) and rush DVOA (13.5%). I expect Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to dominate the day.
– Matthew Freedman
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.