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Freedman’s Favorites: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Freedman’s Favorites: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

I’ve got a really cool job — but being the Director of Content for FantasyPros and BettingPros has a few drawbacks. For example, I used to do “Ask Me Anything” (AMA) sessions all the time on Twitter and sometimes in the FantasyPros Discord, but I rarely do them now. I just don’t have bandwidth, because I’m too busy pretending to be busy.

And I miss the AMAs, because deep down I’m a man of the people. A Freedman of the people, if you will.

So for today’s intro, instead of writing an actual intro I’m fielding some questions on Twitter and doing an AMA.

Let’s see how this goes.

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice partner-arrow

Freedman’s Week 7 AMA

Top five albums of 2022?

From: @errors_oceans

Answer: You flatter me. We all know that I haven’t willingly listened to any new music since probably 2006. I think that’s when the last Audioslave album came out. Or maybe it was 2007, with the final Velvet Revolver record. Actually, I begrudgingly listened to an entire Taylor Swift album a couple years ago — I think it was Folklore — and let me tell you: That killed new music for me. I couldn’t name for you one album that has been released in 2022. And I’m somehow OK with that.

Week 7 QB fill-in: Geno Smith, Matt Ryan or Jameis Winston?

From: @mantogreg

Answer: My auto answer is Smith, who this year is having something of a career Genossaince. Ryan looks a little dusty (although I don’t hate his matchup this week …), and Winston isn’t guaranteed to start.

Favorite childhood memory growing up?

From: @MadRonE0421

Answer: Holidays. Specifically, the Fourth of July and Thanksgiving. When I was young — not even in first grade — a lot of family friends would gather at someone’s house, shoot off a ton of fireworks and eat obscene amounts of food. That’s the first time I remember having watermelon. And for Thanksgiving we would get together with family friends, eat obscene amounts of food and then watch the Cowboys play. That’s the first time I remember having pie. So, what you should take away from this is that I really like food.

Which fantasy call from August are you most proud of? Which would you like to have back?

From: @MarkRingo12

Answer: I’m pleased that I remained below the consensus on Allen Robinson. He felt like a small-upside/big-downside groupthink selection, given the extent of his 2021 underperformance. I wish I had been more judicious in reining in my overenthusiasm for D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin. I mean, their quarterbacks entering the year were Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz. ‘Nuff said.

Hardee’s or Whataburger’s breakfast?

From: @BarbourJermaine

Answer: I don’t think I’ve ever had breakfast food at either establishment. If I want breakfast, I either make it at home or go to a diner. And honestly it has been years since I’ve been to a Hardee’s or Whataburger — because to get to them I would need to leave the house … and be around people … and that just feels like too much effort and potential annoyance.

What do you think of Deon Jackson moving forward?

From: @yankeez1971

Answer: He’s still behind Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines on the depth chart. By this time next year, we might not even remember that he exists.

How important is sexual chemistry in a relationship?

From: @ChainBangerx

Answer: That depends on the relationship, and that depends on you. And that’s the answer to any question regarding the importance of any given feature of a relationship. If it matters to you, then it’s important, and then you need to decide the degree to which it’s important. The communication of expectations and priorities is key. Figure out what you want (or need) and then be open about that in your relationships. And if expectations, priorities, wants or needs change — then you should address that too. Big picture: Sex is great, but have you ever won a fantasy championship?

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 7

The guys in this piece are my favorites for Week 7. These are the players who (in some combination) …

I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 7 rankings, not this article.

Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).

Odds are from our BettingPros matchups pagewhere you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

FantasyPros Accuracy Contest

  • 2022: No. 8 (Weeks 1-6)
  • 2021: No. 14 (Weeks 1-17)

Week 7 Teams on Bye

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Philadelphia Eagles

UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 10/22, 1:30 pm ET): This piece has been updated.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. CLE: Ravens -6.5 | 46.5 O/U

Jackson Update (Sat. 10/22): Jackson (hip) was limited on Wednesday, but he practiced fully on Thursday and Friday and was left off the final injury report. He’ll be without RB J.K. Dobbins (knee), but TE Mark Andrews (knee), WR Rashod Bateman (foot), RT Morgan Moses (heel) and FB Patrick Ricard (knee) all seem likely to play through their questionable tags. The Browns will be without No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (concussion) and maybe EDGE Isaac Rochell (knee, questionable). Game on. Jackson is my locked-in No. 1 quarterback this week.

Check out my Week 7 early betting breakdown on Ravens vs. Browns.

Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. SEA: Chargers -6.5 | 51.5 O/U

  • Herbert leads the NFL with 257 pass attempts, 170 completions and a 2.7% sack rate.
  • The Seahawks defense is No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.190, per RBs Don’t Matter).
  • The Chargers have a week-high 29-point implied total in our Week 6 DFS cheat sheet.

Herbert Update (Sat. 10/22): Herbert will be without No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer (concussion) and No. 2 TE Donald Parham (concussion), but No. 1 WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) seems likely to play (albeit in a possibly limited role) through his questionable tag. I have downgraded Herbert slightly in my rankings but still have him as a top-four quarterback.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. ATL: Bengals -6 | 47.5 O/U

  • In Week 6, Burrow lit up our Game Day app with a league-high 32.5 fantasy points on 28-of-37 for 300-3-0 passing and 4-25-1 rushing.
  • The Falcons defense is No. 31 in dropback SR (53.1%).

Burrow Update (Sat. 10/22): The Falcons will be without CB Dee Alford (hamstring). I have Burrow as a top-four quarterback this week.

Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. DET: Cowboys -7 | 48 O/U

  • Prescott (thumb) practiced limitedly last week on Thursday and Friday and drew a questionable designation before ultimately (and predictably) being a gameday inactive, so I’m optimistic about his returning to action in Week 7.
  • I’m currently eight spots higher than the consensus on Prescott in our Dissenting Opinions Tool, but I’m fine with the divergence: I expect him to play this week, and he’s a locked-in top-12 option with all the quarterbacks on bye.
  • The Lions defense is dead last in both dropback EPA per play (0.252) and pass DVOA (24.0%, per Football Outsiders).

Prescott Update (Sat. 10/22): Prescott practiced fully this week and was left off the final injury report, as were WR CeeDee Lamb (hip) and TE Dalton Schultz (knee). The band is back in town. The Lions are without EDGE Charles Harris (groin). Prescott is a solid fantasy QB1.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. PIT: Dolphins -7 | 44.5 O/U

  • Tagovailoa has seen limited action this year, but he’s No. 1 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.188).
  • Tagovailoa (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and appears ready to play in Week 7.
  • Tagovailoa is 10-3 ATS at home.

Tagovailoa Update (Sat. 10/22): Tagovailoa practiced fully every day and at no point in the week was listed on the injury report. WR Jaylen Waddle (shoulder), LT Terron Armstead (toe) and RT Greg Little (Achilles) all seem likely to play through their questionable tags. Steelers CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) is doubtful. Tagovailoa is a fantasy QB1.

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

  • Since joining the 49ers in 2017, Garoppolo is No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.135) — behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.176), Drew Brees (0.166), Deshaun Watson (0.144) and Philip Rivers (0.136).
  • For his career, Garoppolo is 16-4 ATS as an underdog.
  • The Chiefs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (22.1 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).

Garoppolo Update (Sat. 10/22): The 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey via trade this week, so Garoppolo now has another strong after-the-catch receiver to throw to. The Chiefs are without CB Rashad Fenton (hamstring) and might also be without LB Willie Gay (suspension) and CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR). Garoppolo is a low-end QB1.

Matt Ryan (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • In Week 6, Ryan looked the best he ever has in Indianapolis with 42-of-58 for 389-3-0 passing.
  • Ryan is No. 1 with 170 completions and No. 2 with 253 pass attempts and 1,765 yards passing.
  • The Titans defense is No. 28 in dropback EPA per play (0.167).
  • Against the Titans in Week 4, Ryan had 356 yards and two touchdowns passing to one interception with a 73.0% completion rate and 9.5 AY/A.

Ryan Update (Sat. 10/22): RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Nyheim Hines (concussion) and Deon Jackson (quad) are all available for this weekend, so the Colts could have a less pass-heavy approach than they had last week. Still, I like Ryan’s matchup and have him ranked as a high-end QB2.

Andy Dalton (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

  • Dalton hasn’t been prolific this year, but he has been adequate (No. 13 with 7.1 AY/A), especially given that he has been without WRs Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara for some of his three starts.
  • The Saints have averaged 30 points per game with Dalton since Week 4.
  • The Cardinals defense is No. 32 in dropback SR (53.4%).
  • Road underdogs are 4-11 ATS against the Cardinals under HC Kliff Kingsbury.
  • If starter Jameis Winston (back, ankle) returns to the lineup, I will likely be high on him, although I’m skeptical that he will play given the short turnaround to Thursday Night Football.

Check out my Week 7 early betting breakdown on Saints at Cardinals.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT) at MIA: Steelers +7 | 44.5 O/U

  • Trubisky looked good last week as the in-game injury fill-in with 144-1-0 passing on 12 attempts, and rookie starter Kenny Pickett (concussion) is uncertain to return to action this week.
  • The Dolphins are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (32.3%).

Trubisky Update (Sat. 10/22): Pickett has cleared the league’s protocol and will start this week, so Trubisky is no longer viable. The Dolphins are without CBs Byron Jones (ankle, PUP) and Nik Needham (Achilles, IR), and CB Keion Crossen (knee) is doubtful. I have Pickett ranked as a QB2.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (NYG) at JAX: Giants +3 | 42.5 O/U

Barkley Update (Sat. 10/22): Barkley (shoulder) was limited on Wednesday and Thursday but practiced fully on Friday and was left off the final injury report, as was LT Andrew Thomas (elbow). C Jon Feliciano (groin, questionable) was limited all week, but he still practiced each day and seems likely to play. The Jaguars are relatively healthy — I project DT Foley Fatukasi (quad), DT DaVon Hamilton (foot) and EDGE Foye Oluokun (calf) to play despite their questionable status — but Barkley is still my No. 1 fantasy back.

Check out my Week 7 early betting breakdown on Giants at Jaguars.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. SEA: Chargers -6.5 | 51.5 O/U

  • Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but he went off in Weeks 4-6 (league-high 28.4 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report), and for the year he has 610 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage.
  • Ekeler led all players in Week 6 with 16 targets, and for the year he leads all running backs with 49 (per our Weekly Target Report).
  • The Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (37.0%).

Ekeler Update (Sat. 10/22): The Chargers will be without No. 2 RB Joshua Kelley (knee), No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer (concussion) and No. 2 TE Donald Parham (concussion), and No. 1 WR Keenan Allen (hamstring, questionable) might be limited, so the Chargers could have more of a run-heavy approach, and Ekeler could see more usage as both a runner and receiver. He’s my locked-in RB2.

Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. IND: Titans -2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • After having just 107 yards and a touchdown on “only” 34 carries and a target in Weeks 1-2, Henry exploded in Weeks 3-5 with 422 yards and four touchdowns on 70 carries and an intriguing 13 targets — and now he should be rested off the Week 6 bye.
  • The Titans could have a run-heavy game script as home favorites (-140 at DraftKings).
  • The Colts might be without LB Shaquille Leonard (concussion, nose, back) and EDGE Kwity Paye (ankle), neither of whom practiced nor played last week.
  • Henry had 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and five targets against the Colts in Week 4, and last year he had 214 yards against them on 56 carries and three targets in two games.

Henry Update (Sat. 10/22): Henry will be without FB Tory Carter (neck) — but the Colts will also be without LB Shaquille Leonard (concussion, nose, back) and EDGE Kwity Paye (ankle). Henry is a top-four fantasy back.

Nick Chubb (CLE) at BAL: Browns +6.5 | 46.5 O/U

  • Chubb has averaged 105.0 yards on 17.3 carries and 2.3 targets per game since his first start in Week 7 of 2018, and this year he’s No. 1 in the league with 649 yards and seven touchdowns rushing.
  • Chubb leads the NFL with 20 carries of 10-plus yards and seven carries of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
  • Chubb had just 12 carries and two targets last week, but I imagine that HC Kevin Stefanski will want to feature him more after the team suffered an embarrassing 38-15 loss … right?

Chubb Update (Sat. 10/22): The Browns will be without RG Wyatt Teller (calf), and the Ravens will likely get back EDGE Justin Houston (groin, questionable). Even so, Chubb is still (and always) a fantasy RB1.

Alvin Kamara (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

  • The Saints could be without WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Keith Kirkwood (ankle) and Deonte Harty (toe, IR) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), which would open up a world of opportunity for Kamara, especially via the passing game.
  • In his two games with QB Andy Dalton, Kamara has 42-202-0 rushing and 12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets.
  • The Cardinals are dead last in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%).

Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. ATL: Bengals -6 | 47.5 O/U

  • The Bengals could have a run-heavy game script as large home favorites (-275 at BetMGM), and Mixon has averaged 20.6 FPPG in his nine career games as a home favorite with QB Joe Burrow (per FTN).
  • Mixon is No. 1 in the league with 10 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Red Zone Stats Report).
  • The Falcons defense is No. 31 in rush SR (49.6%).

Breece Hall (NYJ) at DEN: Jets +2 | 39.5 O/U

  • After playing just 37% of the snaps in Weeks 1-2, Hall has owned theJets backfield over the past four games with a 63% snap rate, which he has leveraged into 488 yards and three touchdowns on 63 carries and 21 targets.
  • The Broncos could be without LB Josey Jewell (knee) and S Caden Sterns (hip), both of whom missed Monday Night Football in Week 6.

Hall Update (Sat. 10/22): The Jets will be without WR Elijah Moore (“personal,” discipline), so they could run a little more than they normally do. I expect Jewell to play but project Sterns and DT DeShawn Williams (back, questionable) to be out. Hall is a worthy RB1.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs. CHI: Patriots -8 | 39.5 O/U

  • No. 1 RB Damien Harris (hamstring) missed most of Week 5 and all of Week 6, and in his absence Stevenson went off with 266 yards and two touchdowns on an 88% snap rate, 44 carries and seven targets.
  • In his seven career games with at least 15 opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 18.0 FPPG.
  • The Patriots could have a run-heavy game script as heavy home favorites (-385 at Caesars).
  • The Bears defense is No. 27 in rush success rate (45.8%) and rush DVOA (3.0%).

Stevenson Update (Sat. 10/22): Harris practiced fully on Friday, so he’s highly likely to return to action this week. I now no longer have Stevenson ranked as a fantasy RB1.

Josh Jacobs (LV) vs. HOU: Raiders -7 | 45.5 O/U

  • After mediocre performances in Weeks 1-2 (154 yards, zero touchdowns), Jacobs had great production and usage in Weeks 3-5 (465 yards, three touchdowns on 62 carries, 16 targets), and he should be fresh off the Week 6 bye.
  • Jacobs is No. 1 in the league with 65 yards after contact per game.
  • The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (27.6 FPPG).

I’m betting over 16.0 points for Jacobs in the Week 7 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.

Jacobs Update (Sat. 10/22): The Raiders could have more of a run-heavy attack with TE Darren Waller (hamstring) out and WRs Hunter Renfrow (hip) and Mack Hollins (heel) both questionable and dealing with injuries. The Texans are without EDGE Jonathan Greenard (ankle). I have Jacobs now ranked as a top-five fantasy back.

Kenneth Walker (SEA) at LAC: Seahawks -6.5 | 51.5 O/U

  • No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) is out, as is pass-catching RB Travis Homer (ribs, IR), and in their absence Walker last week had 21-97-1 rushing and 2-13-0 receiving on three targets with a nice career-high 69% snap rate in his first NFL start.
  • The Chargers defense is No. 28 in rush EPA per play (0.035).

Walker Update (Sat. 10/22): RG Gabe Jackson (knee, hip) is doubtful, but at run-stuffing DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (ankle) is questionable for the Chargers. Walker is a low-end RB1.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. DET: Cowboys -7 | 48 O/U

  • As meh-tacular as Elliott has looked this year (418 yards, two touchdowns), he still has had 12-plus opportunities in every game.
  • The Cowboys could rely heavily on the run as big home favorites (-335 at UniBet).
  • The Lions defense is No. 31 in rush EPA per play (0.107) and rush DVOA (13.7%).

Elliott Update (Sat. 10/22): QB Dak Prescott (thumb) practiced fully this week and was left off the final injury report. With Prescott, the Cowboys offense should be improved. The Lions are without EDGE Charles Harris (groin). Elliott is an upside RB2.

David Montgomery (CHI) at NE: Bears +8 | 39.5 O/U

  • In his four full games this year, Montgomery has 59-235-1 rushing and 10-113-0 receiving on 11 targets.
  • The Patriots defense is No. 28 in pass DVOA against running backs (28.7%) and No. 30 in rush SR (47.9%).

Jeff Wilson (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

  • No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) is out, and Wilson has 72-378-2 rushing and 6-62-0 receiving on seven targets over the past five weeks in his place.
  • In his 14 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Wilson has averaged 16.6 FPPG.
  • The Chiefs are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (23.4 FPPG).

Wilson Update (Sat. 10/22): The 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey via trade this week, so … you know … Wilson is no longer a favorite.

Travis Etienne (JAX) vs. NYG: Jaguars -3 | 42.5 O/U

  • Over the past three weeks, Etienne has out-snapped (93 to 80), out-opportunitied (36 to 33) and outproduced (254 yards to 123) backfield mate James Robinson.
  • Etienne is No. 2 behind only Rashaad Penny with 1.98 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app).
  • The Giants defense is No. 28 in rush DVOA (6.6%) and No. 29 in rush EPA per play (0.043).

Etienne Update (Sat. 10/22): The Giants are without EDGEs Azeez Ojulari (calf) and Oshane Ximines (quad). Etienne is a low-end RB2.

Brian Robinson (WAS) vs. GB: Commanders +5.5 | 41.5 O/U

  • Out of all backs to play in each of the past two weeks, Robinson is No. 1 with a 58% utilization rate on snaps played (per our Snap Count Analysis Report) — and those were just his first two NFL games.
  • The Packers defense is a toilet paper-soft No. 32 in rush SR (50.3%) and rush DVOA (14.5%).

Robinson Update (Sat. 10/22): The Commanders could have a run-heavy approach this week, given that they are without QB Carson Wentz (finger), TE Logan Thomas (calf) and WR Dyami Brown (groin) and maybe even WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring, questionable), who exited Thursday’s practice early and didn’t practice on Friday. Robinson is a high-end RB3.

Tony Pollard (DAL) vs. DET: Cowboys -7 | 48 O/U

  • Pollard (8.9 FPPG, No. 26) is the arbitrage version of teammate Ezekiel Elliott (9.5 FPPG, No. 24), except, you know, he’s better.
  • The Lions are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (26.8 FPPG).

Pollard Update (Sat. 10/22): QB Dak Prescott (thumb) practiced fully this week and was left off the final injury report. With Prescott, the Cowboys offense should be improved. The Lions are without EDGE Charles Harris (groin). Pollard is a low-end RB2.

Kenyan Drake (BAL) vs. CLE: Ravens -6.5 | 46.5 O/U

  • Last week, Drake surprisingly out-snapped (34 to 16) and out-produced (127 yards, one touchdown to 15 yards) starter J.K. Dobbins (knee), who exited early and has an uncertain status for Week 7.
  • The Browns defense is No. 32 in rush EPA per play (0.162).

Drake Update (Sat. 10/22): Dobbins is likely to be out for the next 4-6 weeks following surgery, so Drake looks like the new starter for the Ravens. I view Drake as a high-end RB3 with upside.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) vs. ATL: Bengals -6 | 47.5 O/U

  • Reports of Chase’s demise have been exaggerated: He has 63 targets on the season and either 80 yards or a touchdown in four games.
  • For his career, Chase sports a gaudy 10.1 yards per target.
  • The Falcons are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.7 FPPG).

Chase Update (Sat. 10/22): The Falcons will be without CB Dee Alford (hamstring). Chase is a top-two fantasy receiver this week.

Davante Adams (LV) vs. HOU: Raiders -7 | 45.5 O/U

  • Adams frustrated in Weeks 2-3 with just 48 yards on seven receptions, but he has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game and is tied for No. 2 in the league with 10.8 targets per game.
  • With the exception of the Bears — who don’t really have a passing game — every team to play the Texans has seen one of its perimeter wide receivers go off with double-digit targets.

Adams Update (Sat. 10/22): Adams could see extra targets given that TE Darren Waller (hamstring) is out and WRs Hunter Renfrow (hip) and Mack Hollins (heel) are both questionable and dealing with injuries. Adams is a top-three receiver.

Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

  • Samuel has regressed from last year (11.6 yards per target to 7.3; 13.6% RuTD rate to 4.3%) — but he still has either 79 yards or a touchdown in every game.
  • The Chiefs are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (40.9%) and could be without CB Rashad Fenton (hamstring) and S Bryan Cook (concussion), who neither played nor practiced last week.

Samuel Update (Sat. 10/22): This week the 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey (trade), who might open up more opportunities for Samuel in the passing game. Then again …

The Chiefs are without Fenton and might also be without LB Willie Gay (suspension) and CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR). Samuel is still a high-end WR1.

Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. PIT: Dolphins -7 | 44.5 O/U

  • Hill is No. 1 in the league with 701 yards receiving and a 22% target rate on snaps played.
  • The Steelers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (38.2 FPPG).
  • I probably don’t need to write a third bullet about Hill.

Hill Update (Sat. 10/22): QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) practiced fully every day and at no point in the week was listed on the injury report. Steelers CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) is doubtful. I’ve moved Hill up to my WR1.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. DET: Cowboys -7 | 48 O/U

  • Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 24-305-2 receiving and 2-9-0 rushing in four games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 60 targets.
  • Lamb ranks No. 1 at the position with his 33.0% target share (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
  • The Lions defense is No. 30 in dropback SR (51.9%).

Prescott Update (Sat. 10/22): QB Dak Prescott (thumb) practiced fully this week and was left off the final injury report, as was Lamb (hip), who is a top-six fantasy receiver.

Michael Pittman (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • Pittman has just one touchdown on the year — but he also has 417 yards on 52 targets in five games.
  • Over the past two weeks, Pittman has a position-high 99% snap rate.
  • The Titans are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (18.1%).

Pittman Update (Sat. 10/22): RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Nyheim Hines (concussion) and Deon Jackson (quad) are all available for this weekend, so the Colts could have a less pass-heavy approach than they had last week. Still, I like Pittman’s matchup and have him ranked as a low-end WR1.

D.K. Metcalf (SEA) at LAC: Seahawks -6.5 | 51.5 O/U

  • The Seahawks have exploded over the past month (30.5 points per game in Weeks 3-6 vs. 12 points per game in Weeks 1-2) as they have leaned more into the passing game with QB Geno Smith, and in that time Metcalf has 19-335-2 receiving on 37 targets.
  • Metcalf is likely to run most of his routes against ostensible No. 1 CB J.C. Jackson, who has been destroyed this year with a 73.9% catch rate, 2.35 yards per coverage snap and 14.4 yards per target (per PFF).

Metcalf Update (Sat. 10/22): WR Tyler Lockett (hamstring) is questionable and missed practice every day this week, but the Seahawks explicitly held Lockett out this week in the hope of getting him healthy enough to play on Sunday, so I’m tentatively projecting him in for now. Even so, I’ve given Metcalf a slight boost in my rankings. He’s a solid WR1.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs. PIT: Dolphins -7 | 44.5 O/U

  • Even as a clear No. 2 option to WR Tyreek Hill, the second-year Waddle has balled out with 550 yards and three touchdowns on 49 targets and two carries.
  • The Steelers might be without four starters in their secondary: CBs Cameron Sutton (hamstring), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and Levi Wallace (concussion) and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee).

Waddle Update (Sat. 10/22): QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) practiced fully every day and at no point in the week was listed on the injury report. Waddle (shoulder) is questionable, but no beat reporters seem worried about his availability. Ahkello is doubtful. Waddle is a low-end WR1.

Chris Godwin (TB) at CAR: Buccaneers -11 | 40.5 O/U

  • Since returning in Week 4 from his hamstring injury, Godwin has 19-215-0 receiving on a team-high 28 targets.
  • All three starting cornerbacks for the Panthers — Donte Jackson (ankle), Jaycee Horn (hip) and C.J. Henderson (concussion) — are dealing with injuries and uncertain for Week 7.

Godwin Update (Sat. 10/22): Jackson, Horn and Henderson all seem likely to play through questionable tags, but they’re also still dealing with injuries and playing without a full week of practice. Godwin is a high-end WR2.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) at MIA: Steelers +7 | 44.5 O/U

  • The production has underwhelmed (314 yards, zero touchdowns from scrimmage), but Johnson has 57 targets this year (plus four carries) and exactly 10 targets per game since 2020.
  • As big road underdogs (+265 at BetRivers), the Steelers could have a pass-heavy game script.
  • The Dolphins defense is No. 29 in dropback EPA per play (0.184) and dropback SR (51.7%) and will likely be without starting CBs Byron Jones (ankle, PUP) and Nik Needham (Achilles, IR).
  • At some point, targets and receptions and yards turn into touchdowns.

Trubisky Update (Sat. 10/22): No. 1 QB Kenny Pickett (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and will start this week. The Dolphins are without Jones and Needham, and CB Keion Crossen (knee) is doubtful. Johnson is a volume-based low-end WR2.

Amari Cooper (CLE) at BAL: Browns +6.5 | 46.5 O/U

  • In his four games with 10-plus targets this year, Cooper has 27-322-4 receiving.
  • As big road underdogs (+230 at SugarHouse), the Browns could have a pass-heavy game script.
  • The Ravens are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.8 FPPG).

Brandin Cooks (HOU) at LV: Texans +7 | 45.5 O/U

  • Since QB Davis Mills returned to the starting lineup last year in Week 14, Cooks has averaged 8.7 targets per game: If that’s not good enough for you, let me know now so we can end this relationship before it gets serious.
  • The Raiders defense is No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.199).

Allen Lazard (GB) at WAS: Packers -5.5 | 41.5 O/U

  • Lazard has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year.
  • The Commanders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.8 FPPG).

Lazard Update (Sat. 10/22): WRs Randall Cobb (ankle) and Christian Watson (hamstring) are out, and WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring, IR) is uncertain to return to action this week. The Commanders are without CB William Jackson (back). Lazard is a high-end WR2.

Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. GB: Commanders +5.5 | 41.5 O/U

  • McLaurin has disappointed with just 22-367-1 receiving on 37 targets, but he might fare better with backup QB Taylor Heinicke than starter Carson Wentz (finger).
  • In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin has 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
  • The Packers are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (28.8%).

McLaurin Update (Sat. 10/22): Wentz is out, as are TE Logan Thomas (calf) and WR Dyami Brown (groin) and maybe even WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring, questionable), who exited Thursday’s practice early and didn’t practice on Friday. In their absence, McLaurin could see extra targets. He’s a talent-based WR3.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

  • The 49ers could have a pass-leaning game script as underdogs, and in the team’s two non-weather losses Aiyuk has turned 19 targets into 11-122-3 receiving.
  • The Chiefs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.9 FPPG).

Aiyuk Update (Sat. 10/22): This week the 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey (trade), who might open up more opportunities for Aiyuk in the passing game. Then again, Aiyuk could lose targets to McCaffrey. The Chiefs are without CB Rashad Fenton (hamstring) and might also be without LB Willie Gay (suspension) and CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR). Aiyuk is a low-end WR2.

Romeo Doubs (GB) at WAS: Packers -5.5 | 41.5 O/U

  • Since becoming a starter in Week 3, Doubs has averaged a 92% snap rate and garnered 30 targets in four games.
  • Doubs could see even more usage this week without slot WR Randall Cobb (ankle).
  • The Commanders are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (41.7%).

Doubs Update (Sat. 10/22): WRs Randall Cobb (ankle) and Christian Watson (hamstring) are out, and WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring, IR) is uncertain to return to action this week. The Commanders are without CB William Jackson (back). Doubs is a high-end WR3.

Chris Olave (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

  • Olave (concussion) missed last week, but he has cleared the protocol and could see extra targets on Thursday Night Football without WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Keith Kirkwood (ankle) and Deonte Harty (toe, IR) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), not one of whom has practiced this week.
  • Despite leaving Week 5 early with injury, Olave had 8-121-2 receiving on 13 targets in Thomas’ absence in Weeks 4-5.
  • With his 8.4 target per game and high 17.7-yard average depth of target, Olave has an elite ceiling.

D.J. Moore (CAR) vs. TB: Panthers -11 | 40.5 O/U

  • Haha, just joking …
  • That said, the Panthers have made a concerted effort to get Moore the ball over the past three weeks (26 targets, two carries), and he could have even more usage following the trade of No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson.
  • I hate myself.

Moore Update (Sat. 10/22): The Panthers just traded away RB Christian McCaffrey. Who else are they going to give the ball to? I assure you, I still hate myself for ranking Moore as a low-end WR3 … but I think that’s what he is.

Robert Woods (TEN) vs. IND: Titans -2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • In each of his past three games, Woods has progressively played a season-high snap rate (72%, 76%, 84%), which he has leveraged into 12-152-1 receiving on 21 targets.
  • The Colts are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (27.5%).

Woods Update (Sat. 10/22): WR Kyle Philips (hamstring) popped up on the Friday injury report with a limited session after practicing fully earlier in the week. I’m skeptical that he’ll play through his questionable tag, so Woods could have extra targets. He’s a hold-your-nose WR3.

Rondale Moore (ARI) vs. NO: Cardinals -1.5 | 45 O/U

  • Since making his 2022 debut in Week 4, Moore has played a 92% snap rate and racked up 23 targets and three carries.
  • Perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and Robbie Anderson (trade) will limit Moore’s target ceiling with their 2022 Cardinals debuts, but the absence of WR Marquise Brown (leg) will allow Moore to retain his respectable usage floor.
  • The Saints are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (49.8%), and they might be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), who missed last week and is yet to practice this week.

Alec Pierce (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • Over the past two weeks, the rookie Pierce has experienced a boost in playing time (63% snap rate), which he has leveraged into 11-130-1 receiving on 16 targets.
  • The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (43.0%).

Pierce Update (Sat. 10/22): RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Nyheim Hines (concussion) and Deon Jackson (quad) are all available for this weekend, so the Colts could have a less pass-heavy approach than they had last week. Still, I like Pittman’s matchup and have him ranked as a low-end WR3.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. CLE: Ravens -6.5 | 46.5 O/U

  • Andrews is No. 1 among all tight ends with 455 yards receiving, 22 receptions of 10-plus yards, 57 targets and a 33.1% target share (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
  • In two games against the Browns last year, Andrews had 15-180-2 receiving on 21 targets.

Andrews Update (Sat. 10/22): Andrews (knee) missed practiced on Wednesday and Thursday, but he got in a limited session on Friday and should play through his questionable tag. Andrews is still my No. 1 tight end right now … but I might bump him down to No. 2, given that No. 1 WR Rashod Bateman (foot) seems likely to return to action.

Zach Ertz (ARI) vs. NO: Cardinals -1.5 | 45 O/U

  • Given that WR Marquise Brown (leg) is likely to be out, and WRs DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and Robbie Anderson (trade) might struggle to immerse themselves in the offense on a short week, Ertz could see more targets than he usually does.
  • Ertz is No. 2 on the Cardinals with 245 routes, 51 targets and 35-299-2 receiving.

David Njoku (CLE) at BAL: Browns +6.5 | 46.5 O/U

  • After a disappointing Weeks 1-2 (39 scoreless yards, six targets), Njoku has gone off over the past month with 23-308-1 receiving on 29 targets.
  • The Ravens could struggle to contain Njoku without S Marcus Williams (wrist, IR).

Taysom Hill (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

  • Hill isn’t a traditional tight end — he has just 18 routes and one target on the year — but he gets regular usage each game as a wildcat quarterback, and as such he is 3-of-5 for 38-1-0 passing with 26-267-5 rushing.
  • Hill leads the Saints with fig4 carries inside the 20-yard line and three carries inside the 10.
  • Especially in the bye weeks, Hill’s upside is too great to ignore.
  • The Cardinals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (15.2 FPPG).

Hayden Hurst (CIN) vs. ATL: Bengals -6 | 47.5 O/U

  • “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
  • The Falcons are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (13.7 FPPG).

Mo Alie-Cox (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

  • In the words of George Michael, “Teacher, there are things that I don’t want to learn” … actually, that’s not it … here we go: “I gotta have faith.”
  • Cox had a season-low 35% snap rate and zero targets last week … so, as unintuitive as this sounds … it feels like it’s time for a big game.
  • Cox had season-high marks with 6-85-2 receiving, six targets and a 70% snap rate against the Titans in Week 4.
  • The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (36.8%).
  • When I search “Mo Alie-Cox” on Twitter, one of the first tweets that pops up is a transaction notice from a no-followers bot for a random league announcing that Alie-Cox has been released — and if that’s not a “buy low” sign I don’t know what is.

Alie-Cox Update (Sat. 10/22): RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Nyheim Hines (concussion) and Deon Jackson (quad) are all available for this weekend, so the Colts could have a less pass-heavy approach than they had last week. Still, I like Pittman’s matchup and have him ranked as a risk-seeking TE2.

Juwan Johnson (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

  • A second Saints tight end? Yes, it’s the bye weeks.
  • Johnson leads the Saints with 152 routes, and he could see extra targets on Thursday Night Football without WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Keith Kirkwood (ankle) and Deonte Harty (toe, IR) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), not one of whom has practiced this week.
  • The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (28.8%).

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