The Patriots are sizable favorites at home against the offensively deficient Bears on Monday Night Football this week. As a result, the hosts are well-represented. Conversely, the Bears aren’t. The closing thoughts about roster construction also reflect an expected convincing win by the Patriots.
Game: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
The Patriots are sizable favorites at home against the offensively deficient Bears on Monday Night Football this week. As a result, the hosts are well-represented. Conversely, the Bears aren’t. The closing thoughts about roster construction also reflect an expected convincing win by the Patriots.
Game: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Bears Analysis: The Bears will reportedly use a hot-hand approach at running back. As a result, the salary discrepancy between David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert is egregious. The latter has been outstanding this year. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Herbert has the highest yards per carry (6.4) among qualified running backs this year. Second, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), out of 51 running backs with at least 30 attempts this year, Herbert is tied for 11th in missed tackles forced (18 MTF), tied for sixth in 10-plus-yard rushes (12) and is first in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.51 YCO/A).
Herbert has been efficient and explosive. In addition, he has a sweet matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are 26th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Finally, the Bears will often run as long as the game is close. They've attempted just 90 passes in neutral game scripts this year versus 110 runs by non-quarterbacks and 41 (some designed) by mobile quarterback Justin Fields. Unfortunately, they'll likely have to abandon the run as more than a touchdown underdog.
Dante Pettis is a viable player for the Bears. He's been inconsistent but capable of big plays. Specifically, he scored zero fantasy points from Week 2 through Week 5 but had a 51-yard touchdown in Week 1 and four receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown last week. According to PFF, in Week 6, Pettis was tied for third on the Bears in routes (30). The journeyman wideout was also second on the club in targets (seven) and receptions (four) and first in receiving yards (84).
N'Keal Harry isn't guaranteed to play after he was a healthy inactive last week. Still, last week was the first he was eligible to play after opening the year on Injured Reserve (IR). So, he might not have been up to speed with the offense and playbook. Thus, Harry should have more rapport with Fields after another week of practicing with him.
Chicago's receiving corps has been dreadful this year. So, the path to the field isn't obstructed for Harry. Moreover, Fields said Harry would be a "good matchup for smaller DBs." Fields also specifically highlighted that Harry could help in the red zone. As a result, Harry is a stellar punt at the minimum salary on DraftKings.
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots should have their way on the ground. The Bears are 27th in rush defense DVOA. Further, they're allowing 152.2 scrimmage yards per game to running backs and getting gashed for 4.69 yards per carry. So, there's meat on the bone for Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, namely, if the Patriots live up to the expectations accompanying being favored by eight points.
Additionally, Stevenson and Harris have played high-level football this year. Harris is averaging 51.4 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns, 3.19 YCO/A and seven MTF. Meanwhile, Stevenson has been a beast. The second-year back averages 74.7 rushing yards, 2.8 receptions and 14.3 receiving yards per game. Stevenson has also had three rushing touchdowns, 3.98 YCO/A and 19 MTF. So, Stevenson has been the more well-rounded and efficient back. Thus, he's the preferred selection.
Yet, using Stevenson and Harris in tandem is a sweet move because New England loves the running game. In neutral game scripts this year, they've attempted 116 passes and rushed 115 times with their running backs. Further, they've passed only 43 times and run 40 times with their running backs when leading by at least four points.
Mac Jones is expected to start for the Patriots this week. He was turnover-prone before injuring his ankle, throwing five interceptions in three games. However, Jones had his highest yardage output (352 passing yards) in the last game he played. Further, the offense has found its footing with their dual offensive coordinators during his absence, providing optimism that Jones will thrive in his return against a middle-tier pass defense (14th in pass defense DVOA).
Jakobi Meyers is the best pick in New England's pass-catching corps. Per numberFire, on Jones's 97 pass attempts this year, Meyers is first in targets (19) and receptions (13), second in Air Yards (205) and third in receiving yards (150).
DeVante Parker is also a nifty pick. Parker exploded for five receptions for 156 yards on 10 targets in Jones's last start. So, Jones might resume where he left off, throwing 50/50 balls to his physical wideout.
Tyquan Thornton had some juice last week. The speedy rookie had three rushes for 16 yards and a touchdown and was active in the passing attack, running 26 routes and corraling four receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Can he build on his performance? What is his role in the offense? The answer to those questions is unclear, but Thornton has home-run speed that can produce fantasy points on limited touches. So, he's an acceptable pick.
Finally, Jonnu Smith is a contrarian choice. It's not difficult to jam the best picks into a lineup on this slate. So gamers won't have to root around in the bargain bin. As a result, Smith will be overlooked. However, according to PFF, Smith was targeted 11 times on 45 routes in the first three games of the season when Jones was starting. Sure, Smith had just seven receptions for 58 yards, leaving much to be desired. Still, the steady diet of looks when he was on the field was encouraging.
Final Thoughts: Stevenson is my favorite choice for captain/MVP. However, I also love using Harris in a flex. Further, if the game script is good enough to feed both Stevenson and Harris, the defense can eat against a sack and turnover-prone quarterback. According to StatHead, among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts since last year, Fields has the highest sack rate (13.29%) and interception rate (3.9%). Finally, I prefer an onslaught build with only one player from Chicago and the other roster spots filled with Patriots.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
