As we approach the New Year, it’s time to buckle down for the stretch run of the fantasy hockey season.
Whether you’re in the hunt or building for the future, here are some names worth buying and selling at this point in the season.
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NHL Fantasy Hockey Week 12 Buy/Sell Advice
Buy
I included Hagel in this week’s waiver wire advice as he’s rostered in just over 40% of ESPN leagues, but I want to keep beating this drum and ensure I can put his value out there.
In the simplest of terms, the fact Hagel is skating on the Bolts’ top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov makes him a valuable fantasy asset. Furthermore, he’s getting first-unit power play minutes on a Lightning man advantage that ranks sixth at 26.9% for the season.
As a result, Hagel’s production has ramped up of late as he’s notched a pair of three-point games over his last five and scored a goal in Wednesday’s victory over the Montreal Canadiens, giving him seven points over his last five contests. He’s now up to 13 goals and 27 points in 33 games but has all 27 of those points over his last 28 games and has collected 10 points over his last eight.
With 20 penalty minutes, a plus-10 rating, 62 shots, and 25 hits on the season, Hagel is producing across the board. The good news is he’s cheaper than a wealth of first-line wingers in this league. As a result, send out some feelers (if he’s rostered in your league), or pluck him off the waiver wire as soon as possible.
Kuznetsov hit the waiver wire in my league, and I promptly scooped up a player who collected 78 points in 79 games, 208 shots, and 27 power-play points just last season.
There’s no doubt he was off to a slow start, but I was confident he’d heat up, and I was spot on with this one. I doubt he’s available on the waiver wire in 10-plus team leagues at this point, but if he’s not, he’s still worth buying at this point.
Dylan Strome is the fortunate Capitals pivot to be skating with Alex Ovechkin; however, that hasn’t stopped Kuznetsov from producing of late. The Russian center has notched 13 points over his last 12 games and is averaging a solid 2.6 shots per game for the season, good for a 212-shot campaign across a full season.
All that said, the best is yet to come. With just five goals on those 93 shots, Kuznetsov’s shooting rate sits at a measly 5.4%. Given his 11.3% career mark, we can expect the goals to start coming in bunches. The 2010 first-rounder owns a career-low shooting rate of 8.7% from his first full NHL season in 2014-15. He’s posted a 10.4% mark or better in each of his last seven seasons.
At just 72.2% rostered at ESPN, Kuznetsov’s price tag should be reasonable enough to buy as he is about to start filling the net as part of his current hot stretch.
Sell
Certain players are more valuable to their NHL teams than they are to your fantasy team, and Charlie McAvoy is one of them. He’s certainly no fantasy slouch, to be sure, but he’s a player that can help net you a nice asset at more than 90% owned at ESPN.
I mean, last season, he was a really nice fantasy player. McAvoy noted 10 goals, 56 points, 166 shots, 133 blocks, 155 hits, 66 penalty minutes, and a massive plus-31 rating in 78 games. That’s some elite cross-category production.
This season, McAvoy has just two goals with 18 points in 22 games, along with a plus-10 rating. That said, he doesn’t shoot the puck much, with just 42 shots on the season, while he’s been relegated to the second-unit power play as Hampus Lindholm‘s big season continues.
Now, if McAvoy were to be promoted to the top unit, I might change my tone. However, there’s a good chunk of NHL d-men producing at the levels McAvoy is right now, and many of them sport less than 90% rostership.
It could be due to his delayed start to the season, but McAvoy’s average ice time is down nearly two minutes per game this season to 22:51 per game. That’s a healthy amount of ice time, but he was at 24:38 last season.
Don’t get it twisted, I’d have McAvoy on my fantasy roster and feel good about it. However, I don’t see the elite cross-category production right now, and I’d be willing to see what type of player or package-type deal McAvoy could be involved in to boost your chances in the short term.
You hate to sell during a dip in value, but there are scenarios where it makes sense to deal Aaron Ekblad at the moment.
Perhaps someone is looking toward next year and taking his elite fantasy track record into consideration. Maybe an owner thinks there’s a mid-season turnaround in order. Regardless, Ekblad just isn’t getting it done on a disappointing Panthers team this season.
Florida is dangerously close to the basement of the Atlantic Division right now, and Ekblad’s production is a reflection of that. He’s notched just four goals and 14 points in 24 games, along with a minus-14 rating. His averages are fine, but his point production and rating are way down this season.
Keep in mind this was a guy that notched 15 goals and 57 points with an astronomical plus-38 rating just last season. However, he went down later in the season with a long-term injury and has dealt with more injuries this season. Add in a struggling team that has seen its offense and power play slip significantly from last season, and you get a disappointing result from a player that’s been as consistent as you’d ever hope for from a fantasy defenseman.
There’s nothing wrong with keeping Ekblad. It seems like he’s been in the league forever, but the 2014 first-overall pick is still just 26 years old. He has an impressive track record and is tied for eighth in goals scored by a blueliner since entering the league. A bounceback next season, or even a turnaround this season, is certainly not out of the cards.
However, it just doesn’t seem to be his year. If you’re going for the ship, dangling Ekblad and his near 95% rostership isn’t the worst of ideas.
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