Best Ball Strategy: How to Approach the Late Rounds (2023 Fantasy Football)

You’ve built a strong team through the early and middle rounds of your best-ball draft. The stacks are flowing and you’ve crushed some player ADP values. But it’s hardly the time to take the foot off the gas and coast. Because the late-rounds are where the die-hard fantasy drafters flex their knowledge and reign supreme. 

And be sure to check out the latest strategy piece by Football Outsiders and FantasyPros’ own Tom Strachan in conjunction with my article as he covers the topic, Best Ball: Spreading Exposure in Late Picks.

• Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
• Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
• Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy

Late-Round Best Ball Strategies

Let’s finish strong.

Backdoor Stacking

To start, you’ll pick up where you left off in the middle rounds by backfilling stacks onto your roster. Whether it be a second or third quarterback to go with one of his receivers/tight ends that you drafted earlier or as another part of an offense that you already have decent exposure to. Again, you don’t want to reach for these late-round stacks most of the time for reasons I laid out in the 2023 Best Ball Strategy: How to Approach the Middle Rounds article. 

However, depending on when you draft during the calendar year, ADPs can fluctuate up and down, especially in the later rounds. So a sleeper candidate you draft slightly “above” ADP earlier in the year could end up being a value by the time training camp and the season comes along. For that reason, I don’t mind going against ADP as the draft goes into the late double-digits. The majority of guys in this range are total fliers anyway, so may as well take the late-round gems you or your favorite fantasy football analyst believes in the most to beat their respective ADPs. Just keep your exposure to the same late-round players in check to some extent if you are drafting a large portfolio of teams as Strachan recommends in Best Ball: Spreading Exposure in Late Picks. 

What-If Scenarios

With some of the mammoth-sized best-ball contests we have available from Best Ball Mania to GPPs on DraftKings, you should be open to different strategies to create the best odds of getting a truly unique roster that separates from the field in the playoff rounds. Thinking outside the box by varying your exposure with 17th/18th-round dart throws and targeting players that will see their values grow over the summer are just a few game theory elements that best ball drafters should always try to implement.

And remember that the summer training camp months for the NFL are a war of attrition. Rosters are as healthy as they will ever be, but we know that’s not going to last. So embrace the inevitable chaos by not overweighting current depth charts and target players who would benefit the most if/when an off-season injury/surprise release occurs.

You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your best-ball drafts. Simply put, “if “x” happens, what would that do to “x” player’s value.” Again, this is most commonly seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football. Guys we expect to get hurt and guys we don’t expect to get hurt are going to miss games. We can’t project when/if said injuries are going to happen, but what savvy drafters can do is stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players that are being discounted because of their situation. 

Worry not about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in Round 18. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on what’s in the players’ range of outcomes should he see an expanded role as the season wanes. That was one of the biggest takeaways from my Wide Receiver Season Recap & Advice for 2023 (Fantasy Football). Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. I fell for the Romeo Doubs’ hype train and didn’t invest nearly enough in Christian Watson, even though everything that was not written by a Packers training camp beat reporter clearly showed that Watson was the superior prospect. And all it took was for him to get healthy and for Doubs to underwhelm as a Day 3 pick — not shocking — for everybody else to get on board. 

Just buy the dip on talent when the ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players that delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Garett Wilson, Richie James Jr., Greg Dortch, and Elijah Moore all either increased their production or commanded targets at a high rate due to injuries to teammates around them this past season. Not all of them will be late-round picks, but some definitely will. And those are the archetype of players you should be looking to target.

I also believe in another thought exercise of,” He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful. Why draft a committee pass-catching back in D’Andre Swift in Round 2 or 3 when you can draft Antonio Gibson in Round 8 or 9? 

Players that have defined roles that go extremely late can be beneficial in the best-ball format as they help reduce the number of zero-point scores on your team. But the constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis as these players are often not talked about enough. Even though players entering 2022 like Zay Jones and Curtis Samuel — clearly defined roles on offense with spikes of proven production — were strong contributors to best-ball rosters. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense.

Hence, why chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your best-ball teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys that fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.

Buy The Upside

In Tom Strachan’s 2022 version of Best Ball: How to Approach the Late Rounds, he mentions two specific ways to target upside in the late rounds of drafts. Air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at WR and TE. When we compare a wide receiver’s air yards share and the average depth of the target (aDOT) to their advance rate, we are met with actionable results. Among the top-17 wide receivers in aDOT, ten finished with above average (16.67%) Round 1 advance rates. Note, that bolded indicates an above-average advance rate.

But the more revealing results came from the team air yards share compared to advance rates. Inside the top ten WRs in advance rates (well above average), seven boasted a top-10 air yard share. And the other three inside the top ten posted 16% advance rates — just right below average. The data suggest that a strong air yards share favors favorably towards advancing. Now, late-round guys don’t usually command strong air yard shares from a season-long perspective. But the overarching idea of drafting WRs or TEs that can command downfield targets/air yards at a decent rate proves favorable. 

Some potential late-round guys in 2023 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2022 include Darius Slayton, Van Jefferson, Nico Collins, D.J. Chark, Alec Pierce, Terrace Marshall, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Tyquan Thornton, Michael Gallup, Mack Hollins, Rondale Moore, and Chase Claypool. 

When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them throughout the best-ball season. I mentioned this in both the RB best-ball primer and WR best-ball primer. Specifically for rookie WRs, it is even more important. 

Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way — Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson — or drastically underwhelm — Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams. They are lottery tickets that you need to draft at all times during the best-ball season that are frequently drafted outside the top 36. Take full advantage.

Keep in mind that rookie WRs’ roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for best ball formats that have prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season.

Late-Round Tight Ends

If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy. This is essentially my Tier 4 of tight ends which ranges widely from TE14-TE29. As briefed in the tight end best ball primer, you don’t want to overextend yourself for any of these TEs because the production will likely be negligible at best drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. So just wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally ones with either a path for receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism. Drafting three tight ends is also acceptable if you wait long enough at the position — again, quantity over quality

The tight end that catches my eye as a potential late-round darling is Titans tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo. The uber-athletic standout started the last two games for Tennessee and flashed uber-efficiency in the receiving game. The rookie’s 26% target rate ranked second among all tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2022. He finished third in PFF receiving grade, first in yards per reception, and first in yards per route run among all tight ends. And better yet, both Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim are free agents in 2023.

Late-Round Quarterbacks

Outside the top-3 quarterback tiers, it becomes a crapshoot drafting a serviceable one. Those that remain are younger QBs (or rookies) that have been inconsistent up to this point in their NFL careers. Ideally, you aren’t selecting any of these guys as your locked-and-loaded fantasy QB2 because they come with much scarier floors. They are much better bets as QB3s. However, the risk is fully baked into the suppressed cost, making them super valuable if they drastically beat their ADP.

Mac Jones is the quarterback I am gravitating toward as a late-round option, with hopes he can carve out usage as a steady body (similar to the appeal of Tier 3 QBs) at a fraction of the cost. Jones surprisingly had a pretty decent alive rate last season (7%, 12th) despite him finishing 36th in fantasy points per game among QBs. Woof. Keep in mind that when Jones operated from a clean pocket (a sticky stat for QBs from year to year), he was PFF’s 5th-highest passer. His outlook can only improve in Year 3 with Bill O’Brien returning to the Patriots as the offensive coordinator for the first time since 2011.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett could also experience growth in Year 2 after finishing his rookie season on a high note. From Weeks 12-18, Pickett was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. He also added 235 rushing yards on the ground, putting him close to that desired 250 rushing yards threshold we should be aiming for our fantasy QBs to hit as I identified in the Best Ball QB Primer.

And when in doubt, trapped in the doldrums of the REAL late-round quarterbacks – the guys nobody wants to draft – just draft your third quarterback based on total projected games played and potential stacks (cheap starters). It’s these overlooked stacks that could end up paying dividends to not only help you advance but provide a spike to your roster in the best ball playoff format.

Geno Smith is a prime example of implementing this strategy last season after it was clear he was going to be the full-time starter in Seattle. He finished with the third-highest advance rate on Underdog among fantasy quarterbacks (29%).

A final name that should not be overlooked late in drafts is Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell. Apparently, Washington feels content entering the year with the second-year signal caller as the team’s starter after he impressed in his Week 18 debut. The former UNC product scored 19.2 fantasy points versus the Dallas Cowboys while flashing his potential as a rusher (5-35-1). The Commanders are not short on offensive weapons, making Howell an ideal dual-threat quarterback to stack super late in early best-ball drafts.

Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

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