Value-Based Drafting Primer (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Value. If I had to guess the word that I’ve written the most in my decade-plus as a fantasy scribe, it would be the V word.

Because at the end of the day, what’s what it’s all about, right? You want the team that’s going to give you the most value at the end of the draft and at the end of the season.

It’s easier said than done, of course, because value is a broad word that can mean a lot to different people.

But for me, I have a value-based approach that I take when I head into each draft, and I want to share that with you. But don’t tell your friends, OK. Well, tell the friends who aren’t in your league but for everyone else, just tell them you get your advice from ProsFantasy.

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Value-Based Drafting Primer (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Use Your Resources

Resources are huge with draft prep in general, and they can help you gain proper value on players. We have a few of those resources here are FantasyPros. (I, too, am a company man, Matthew Berry.)

The first resource I recommend checking out is our expert consensus rankings, as you can get a good feel for where multiple experts in the industry rank players. Using that as a guide – not a Bible – can help you shift players up or down based on your own feelings about them.

I also suggest using an auction calculator, whether it be ours or FanGraphs, where you can adjust the settings to match your leagues to get an idea of how much players should be going for.

Again, these are a great tools, but not something that should be written in ink. I like using rankings and ADP to get an idea of what the feelings on players are, knowing that many do subscribe to them exactly. It gives me an idea of where I can jump up or down a round on a player in my draft to maximize the value as much as possible.

The Battle of Catchers

Is your league a one-catcher league or a two-catcher league? If it’s the former, then the first tip I will tell you is to just wait and be the last one to draft a catcher.

It’s hard to hear an argument for taking a catcher early or even being one of the first half of teams in the league taking a catcher before the rest of the league. The ROI with them is lesser than just about anyone else in the league, given the number of days they rest, taking down the offensive opportunity (i.e., value) they can provide.

In a two-catcher format, though, the game changes. I’ve waited and waited and waited to take two not-so-great catchers, and it really, really hurt my counting numbers. In a two-catcher league, I like to be one of the first teams to draft a catcher and then wait for my second one later.

Don’t Get Caught

We can all go into a draft with a plan, but that plan should always ALWAYS be in pencil and not pen. If you stick to it too closely, you’ll end up missing out on a ton of value. The advice that I always have is to have a value list with you and draft specifically off of value in the early going. Even if that means that you draft two first-basemen and two shortstops in your first four draft picks. The name of the game is value, and we aren’t going to pass up on hitters that fell just to fill a roster spot or a category.

Once you scoop up the value, then you can adjust going forward. The good value that you found early on will make it easier to adjust and zig while the rest of the room is zagging later on. Always be ready to pivot. Always.

Decide How You Value Pitching

We flip-flop on how we feel about pitchers each year, as we’ll push them up to the first round or decide that there are so many arms that we like that we are fine waiting on them. The latter seems to be the case for 2023, which can present some value itself.

If people are all subscribed to the same thought process (hello, groupthink!), it can allow you to find the value of the arms if they are falling lower than they should be.

Anchoring your staff with 1-2 top 15 arms is a great strategy, and it can allow you to be more selective later on, finding arms you like that you value more than the consensus.

Some of those arms that I like this year more than the masses are Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling, Jose Berrios, and Bailey Ober.

Tier Players and Positions

We all have heard about tiering out players because it allows you to get an idea of when you should hop in and grab players in a certain tier. You don’t want to be first in a tier and usually not last, but right toward the end is the sweet spot.

I do the same with positions, too, based on how deep they are. Of course, deep is relative, so it’s all about how comfy I feel with the players available in the draft.

Here’s how I tier my positions this year, going from how deep they are vs. how shallow they are (and how much I care about them):

SS > SP > 1B > 2B > 3B > OF > C > RP

Using that model, I know that I can wait until later in the draft to find shortstops, starting pitchers, and first basemen that I like, where it’s tougher to find third basemen and outfielders as the draft goes on. I use that as a tiebreaker when I’m deciding between players.

Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.

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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.