Fantasy baseball draft season is a time of optimism. Sadly, not every player will live up to draft-day expectations. Some players will inevitably fail to deliver value at their average draft position (ADP). Avoiding costly busts can help a squad contend for a championship. But, of course, bust is a relative term, and the cost of missing on a late-round pick is minimal.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Bust Pitchers: Alek Manoah
Alek Manoah (SP – TOR): 50.8 ADP & 64.6 ECR
Manoah is over-drafted as the SP20 in ADP. The 25-year-old righty’s 2.24 ERA in 2022 was significantly out of whack from his ERA estimators. Per FanGraphs, Manoah had a 3.31 xERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.97 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA. Even Manoah’s most-favorable ERA estimators were more than a run higher than his ERA.
In addition, his strikeout rate slid from 27.7% in his rookie season to 22.9% last year. The dip in strikeout rate coincided with his SwStr% and called CSW% dropping from his first to his second campaign.
Can Manoah be an outlier who overperforms his ERA annually? Maybe. It’s too early in his career to bank on that, though. As a result, I have him ranked 71st overall, lower than his ADP and expert consensus ranking (ECR).
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
