With the NFL Combine wrapped up and its measurements made official, let’s dive into key metrics from some potential top picks. I’ll let someone else cover Bryce Young‘s height or Anthony Richardson‘s incomparable workout for now; here, I’m focusing more on the prospects on the doorsteps of Round 1 and how their performances in certain drills make them outliers compared to recent history — for better or worse.
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Notable Outliers from the 2023 NFL Combine
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
Threshold: Three-Cone < 6.6 seconds, Weight > 195 pounds
Threshold: 20-Yard Shuttle < 3.95 seconds, Weight > 195 pounds
Smith-Njigba gets TWO thresholds that make him special because both of his change-of-direction drills at the Combine were just that good – especially at his size. Assuming that JSN is drafted in either of the first two rounds, he will become just the second receiver drafted on Days 1 or 2 of the Draft in the last decade to beat those elite markers in the three-cone and 20-yard Shuttle drills, and his company is good in each of them. Odell Beckham performed the 20-yard Shuttle in 3.94 seconds at 198 pounds in 2014, and Courtland Sutton did the three-cone in 6.57 seconds. Smith-Njigba is stylistically different from both OBJ and Sutton, but it goes to show that quick footwork and fluidity usually win out in the NFL.
Jordan Addison (WR – USC), Josh Downs (WR – North Carolina), Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (WR – Houston)
Threshold: 40-Yard Dash > 4.45 seconds, Weight < 175 pounds
If you’ve been feeling like wide receivers entering the NFL Draft are getting smaller by the year, well, you’d be correct. Only 18 WRs in the entire NFL Combine database going back to 2000 have been this light with a 40 time above 4.45 seconds, and three of them are top prospects in this class: Addison, Downs, and Dell. Of the 15 prior to 2023, only one was selected before the end of Round 2, and that was Dexter McCluster in 2010 — who was a receiver-in-name-only and didn’t have the most productive career outside of special teams. At least one of these guys will have his name called during Rounds 1 or 2, though he’ll be doing it from a list that you don’t want to be on.
Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia)
Threshold: 40-Yard Dash < 4.70 seconds, 20-Yard Shuttle < 4.10 seconds, Weight > 260 pounds
Washington showed up to Indy lighter than expected — granted, 264 pounds remains enormous — but he trimmed down for good reason. His 40-yard dash time of 4.64 seconds at his size is excellent, and his 20-yard shuttle time of 4.08 seconds is even better. In fact, that shuttle time was the third-best of all participants at this year’s Combine, right behind a wide receiver and a cornerback. Did I mention that Washington is 6-foot-7, 264 pounds and blocks like an offensive tackle? The data proves that no TE prospect other than Washington has ever moved that well at that size.
O’Cyrus Torrence (OG – Florida)
Threshold: 40-Yard Dash > 5.30 seconds, Vertical Jump < 25″, Broad Jump < 9’6″
It’s hard enough for an offensive guard to get picked in Round 1 of the Draft, but Torrence didn’t do himself any favors. Torrence is a load and wasn’t exactly expected to jump out of Lucas Oil Stadium, but there is little precedent for any lineman that lacking in speed and explosiveness to hear his name called on the first night of the Draft. You need to go back to 2008 when the Panthers picked Jeff Otah at No. 19 overall (29 career games) to find someone who missed all three of those benchmarks yet still went on Days 1 or 2 of the Draft. Granted, many big-bodied prospects like Torrence avoid the jumping drills, so they aren’t targeted like this, but it’s too late for him. Larry Warford was a top prospect back in 2013 and went on to make three Pro Bowls with similar testing numbers to Torrence, though he fell all the way to Pick No. 65.
Threshold: 40-Yard Dash < 4.40 seconds
This one is simple. Only five players at EDGE or off-ball linebacker had ever clocked a 40 beneath 4.40 seconds prior to 2023, three of whom were considered top prospects going into their respective Combines: Isaiah Simmons, Micah Parsons and Odafe Oweh. All three of them went on to be selected in Round 1, including Oweh coming off a 0-sack season as a junior at Penn State. Nolan Smith is going in Round 1.
Will McDonald (EDGE – Iowa State)
Threshold: Broad Jump > 11′, Arm Length > 34″
Only one other EDGE prospect on record at the Combine has ever been as explosive, and as long as McDonald, two good qualities for a pass rusher if you ask me! (You guessed it…it was Odafe Oweh.) McDonald will turn 24 before Week 1 of the next NFL season, and there are questions about his three-down capabilities at only 239 pounds. Still, I don’t foresee a player as freakish as McDonald at a premium position escaping Round 1.
Christian Gonzalez (CB – Oregon), Deonte Banks (CB – Maryland)
Threshold: Height > 6-foot, Weight > 195 pounds, 40-Yard Dash < 4.40 seconds, Vertical Jump > 40″, Broad Jump > 11′
No position had more freak shows on display last weekend than CB, and here’s some proof of that. Only one cornerback ever had hit each of those fairly clean thresholds before, and that was Jaycee Horn in 2021 before becoming the No. 8 overall pick in that year’s Draft. Gonzalez and Banks both did it this year, and each is a surefire first-rounder now; Gonzalez, in particular, shouldn’t make it out of the top 10.
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