PGA DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2023)

The PGA Tour will stay in the Sunshine State for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida this weekend. It’s a field of the Tour’s most exciting and talented players, ranging from betting favorite Jon Rahm to former winners Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Collin Morikawa are just a few of the other prominent names hovering near the top of the outright winner odds one day removed from the opening round.

Bay Hill is one of the most notorious courses in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour circuit, averaging 73.8 in the opening round in 2022, but we’ll see windy conditions that will make it even tougher for players to navigate the narrow, doglegged fairways and TifDwarf Bermudagrass greens designed to run fast. Scheffler managed to win in 2022 with only two rounds under par, logging a five-under-par as his winning score, beating Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, and Tyrell Hatton by one stroke. Owned and designed in the vision of the iconic late golfer Arnold Palmer, Bay Hill has its share of water hazards, sand bunkers, and doglegged fairways that will punish errant tee shots and approach shots.

Star-studded fields in PGA Tour events often equate to massive value opportunities for acquiring good players at a fraction of the cost in DFS lineups. Managing your salary and maximizing players who have a nose for eagles and birdies sounds easier than it is, but I’m back from my paternity leave to help us cash out a few contests on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. I’ve identified six of my favorite plays and will explain why each one should be treated as a priority edition to your DFS lineups. Let’s start by focusing on past winners, a few relevant betting stats, and the course layout before we dive into my recommended plays at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Previous Winners

2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Bryson DeChambeau
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy

Relevant Betting Stats

Scrambling
Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
Driving Distance
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained Putting
Sand save percentage
Greens in Regulation percentage

Course Overview

Bay Hill is a par 72 that runs 7,439 yards in length. It’s one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour and while it has a couple more par 5 holes than what we saw at PGA National during the 2023 Honda Classic last weekend, don’t let appearances fool you. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter. This means that players could be tentative and leave putts short due to fear of overpowering their stroke and sending it further away from the hole.

Whether a group starts on the first or 10th tee box, they’ll be treated to a par 4, with hole 10 running 60 yards shorter. Palmer saved his best for last with a three-hole finish that ranges from the 16th hole that is a par 5 at 511 yards, pivoting to a 223-yard par 3 on the 17th hole, and concluding with a par 4 on the 18th with an approach shot over an enormous pond. The rough is tall at three and a half inches, while numerous doglegged fairways will challenge players’ vision, accuracy, and distance off the tee. Having a reliable sand wedge to dig out of bunkers will be imperative for a lot of players throughout the windy conditions at Bay Hill this weekend.

Recommended Plays: DraftKings

DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000

Rory McIlroy: $10,600
It’s been an unremarkable return for Rory McIlroy since he rejoined the PGA Tour after dominating on the DP World Tour. McIlroy has been unable to log a T25 finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open or The Genesis Invitational in his most recent events, but he did win the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October. McIlroy has also won at Bay Hill back in 2018, beating Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes and finishing with an impressive -18-under-par. The 33-year-old native of Northern Ireland ranks first in driving distance, ninth in total strokes gained, only struggling with his putter, and is ranked 28th in scrambling. McIlroy is the third most expensive player on the slate but he’s still $900 cheaper than Jon Rahm and $300 cheaper than Scheffler, so lock the talented veteran into lineups with the utmost confidence.

Will Zalatoris: $9,400
A nagging back injury has kept us from seeing more of Will Zalatoris but that doesn’t mean he won’t be prepared for a run at an outright win. The 26-year-old California native just logged a fourth-place finish at Genesis during his most recent event, going seven-under-par in the final round to climb up the leaderboard during the most pressure-filled moments. Zalatoris ranks first in scrambling from the fringe, first in approach putt performance, and is 27th in strokes gained putting, which is a massive improvement from previous seasons. He can crack the driver, averaging 306 yards per attempt, so he’s built for success at Bay Hill. Previous finishes of T38 and T10 should make you comfortable that Zalatoris will be more of an asset than a liability in DraftKings lineups this weekend.

Sam Burns: $8,100
Sam Burns is a huge value this weekend at $8.1K on DraftKings. The 26-year-old native of Louisiana missed the cut at Genesis but he’s been solid at Bay Hill, logging previous finishes of T9, MC, T36, T54, and T49. Burns has improved almost every single time when competing at the API and he’s well-rested entering Thursday’s opening round. Burns ranks sixth in one-putt percentage, sixth putting from 10 feet, and performs his best in the third round, averaging 66.8 on his scorecard. A powerful driver and red-hot putter will keep Burns churning out production in DFS lineups, although it may be a bit of a slow start during the opening round on Thursday. Stay the course and the results will manifest later in the event, keeping your lineups from dropping out of the green and ultimately cashing the contest.

Recommended Plays: FanDuel

FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000

Max Homa: $11,600
My favorite blue-chip prospect at this event is a player on the rise who is seeking his first outright win at Bay Hill. 32-year-old Max Homa already has two outright wins tucked under his belt this season, starting at Fortinet in September and out-dueling Jon Rahm at the Farmers Insurance Open to storm back and win the event on Sunday. Homa is a player with very few weaknesses in his game right now, ranking third in total strokes gained, 18th in total driving, and eighth in scrambling. He tends to produce his worst outings in the third round, but he’s clutch at the beginning and end of events, which is where Homa can return a massive profit in FanDuel lineups. T17, T10, and T24 finishes in his previous three appearances suggest that we may see Homa atop the leaderboard at some point this weekend, so don’t miss out and add him into as many DFS lineups as possible ahead of Thursday’s opening round.

Keith Mitchell: $9,700
We’re getting a solid discounted rate with Keith Mitchell at $9.7K on FanDuel. The 31-year-old has two T5 finishes across his last three events and ranks first in total driving, fifth in strokes gained off the tee, and 15th in driving distance. Mitchell also possesses an accurate driver, allowing him to find the fairway and outpace others in his group, giving him the best approach shot for birdie opportunities. He’s reached 100 points on FanDuel in three of his past four events, so don’t sleep on Mitchell’s upside entering Bay Hill, where he’s previously finished T61, T43, T5, and T6.

Tommy Fleetwood: $9,600
Tommy Fleetwood has only competed in five events this season thus far but he’s managed three T25 finishes, while only missing the cut once at the WMPO a few weeks ago. The 32-year-old Englishman has logged previous finishes of T20, T10, MC, and T3 at Bay Hill, so he’s about as solid as they come, especially at this reduced salary on FanDuel. The windy conditions may help Fleetwood climb the leaderboard, as he’s best with his irons, ranking 11th in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained around the green, and 17th in strokes gained putting. Averaging 4.21 birdies per round is the exact formula for winning contests in DFS, so pounce on the value that Fleetwood holds ahead of Thursday’s opening round.

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Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to a more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup — to learn more.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.