2023 NFL Draft Prospects: Dynasty Rookie Running Back Sleepers (Fantasy Football)

Identifying fantasy football sleepers and under-the-radar players is one of the most fun parts of our fake game, but the process has changed over the last few years with so much information now at our disposal.

With a fresh new crop of rookies comes the opportunity to find draft-day bargains. When it comes to dynasty drafts and rookie sleepers for redraft/early best-ball leagues, we have to dig pretty deep. That’s why I’ve embarked on a search for what I like to call “true sleepers” — small school and late third-round or Day 3 draft picks who could surprise early in the NFL.

After researching and finalizing my 2023 rookie dynasty rankings, I’ve identified a handful of running backs who could be this year’s, Tyler Allgeier or Dameon Pierce.

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2023 NFL Draft Prospects: Dynasty Rookie RB Sleepers (Fantasy Football)

Finding the next sleeper

One of the biggest indicators that led me to feature guys like Elijah Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson and Allgeier as draft-day sleepers in previous versions of this article was the prospect’s high average yards per snap or scrimmage play. Simply put, when the guy is on the field, he accumulates yards at a high rate.

Mitchell and Stevenson headlined the 2021 NFL Draft Class in that category, and the majority of those featured all showed something as rookies to boost their value entering Year 2. Even late-round and undrafted running backs like Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, Jaret Patterson and Chris Evans flashed moments in very limited roles as rookies.

2021 Rookie Running Backs College Average Yards per Snap

In 2022, Allgeier tied for fourth in his class in that category, while Rachaad White led the class.

2022 Rookie Running Backs College Average Yards per Snap

DeWayne McBride (RB – UAB)

DeWayne McBride headlines the RB class this season with a 4.18 average yards per snap. It’s the highest mark I’ve tracked over the past three draft classes. It’s a testament to just how elite McBride was as a rusher in three years at UAB, considering he was a complete non-factor in the passing game with just five receptions during his entire collegiate career. Even so, McBride totaled a top-five dominator rating (27%) for his excellent efforts.

2023 Rookie Running Backs College Average Yards per Snap

His production is captured in his PFF grades, with him finishing second, eighth, and third in PFF grading the last three seasons, respectively. Aside from being a complete afterthought in the passing game, McBride checks off a lot of boxes you want to see from a smaller school prospect, and he easily saved his best for last as a junior, finishing second in the FBS in rushing yards (1702, 155 yards per game), second in yards after contact per attempt (4.6) and fifth in dominator rating (35%) among the 2023 draft class.

Per PFF, his 36% missed tackle rate ranks third all-time since the data started being tracked. And per Sports Info Solutions, McBride finished with the third-highest percentage of carries with a positive expected points added (EPA) — tied with Bijan Robinson and Eric Gray. He ranked first in positive run percentage when hit at the line of scrimmage. Allgeier took home that title from last year’s class.

With desirable size at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds, McBride is emerging as one of my favorite sleeper running backs in the incoming class. His price is dirt cheap as the RB16 per dynasty league football in rookie drafts (35th overall). McBride is my RB10 (22nd overall). Note that he did not test at the NFL Scouting Combine after suffering a hamstring injury in training, which may have prevented him from further increasing his draft stock.

Kendre Miller (RB – TCU)

Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in a limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level.

Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller finished third in total points added per rushing attempt.

He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class). Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18) per Sports Info Solutions.

Miller did not test at the NFL Combine or at TCU’s pro day (recovering from post-season knee surgery). Based on his size and other measurables, his closest comparables per Mockdraftable.com include Tyler Allgeier, Jeff Wilson and Stevan Ridley.

Roschon Johnson (RB – Texas)

Roschon Johnson posted an absurd 49% missed tackle rate in 2022 while also finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. Simply put, he would be talked about much more had he not been seated on the depth chart behind college football’s best running back: Bijan Robinson. He only started five games in 47 total games played at Texas.

But Johnson possesses bell-cow size at 6-foot-0 and 219 pounds, with tenacity to boot. He jumped 122 inches in the broad jump (78th percentile). However, his vertical jump left some to be desired at 31.5 inches (19th percentile, third-worst among 2023 testers).

Tyjae Spears (RB – Tulane)

Tyjae Spears boosted his draft stock dramatically as a buzzy player at the Senior Bowl, and his atomic rise up the draft boards continued at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Spears weighed in at 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds. He did not run the 40-yard dash but instead nearly jumped out of the building in the explosion drills. His vertical jump of 39 inches ranked in the 92nd percentile and was second only to Chase Brown. Spears’ broad jump ranked third in the class at 125, which ranked in the 89th percentile.

The Tulane running back will be one of my top rookie running back targets after he posted a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing fifth in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing TDs (19) and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). Throughout his career, he boasts an impressive 3.00 yards per play (seventh best in the class) — a great indicator of future success at the NFL level.

Draft PFF’s second-highest-graded receiving running back from last season (sixth in the nation) and reap the rewards. His 8.1 pass-protection reps per game — second in the class per Sports Info Solutions — suggest he is ready to be used on all three downs at the NFL level.

He is currently being mocked as the RB5 at 83rd overall per NFLmockdraftdatabase.com.

Israel Abanikanda (RB – Pittsburgh)

Israel “Izzy” Abanikanda didn’t do much at Pittsburgh during his first two years there, but he finally broke out in 2022 as the team’s No. 1 running back. The 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns (1.9 per game) en route to a 39% dominator rating (tied for the highest mark in the class). Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF’s eighth-highest rusher in his draft class.

At Pitt’s pro day, Abanikanda ran an unofficial 4.44 40-yard dash. He also jumped out of the building hitting 41 inches in the vertical (97th percentile) and 128 inches in the broad jump (95th percentile). His size/speed profile is extremely enticing, especially with him yet to even turn 21 years old.

Zach Evans (RB – Ole Miss)

Zach Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing limited usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class.

However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level — along with no contributing role as a receiver — is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason.

As previously mentioned, yards per play is a great indicator of future success, with recent late-round standouts in that category the past two years including Elijah Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, and Tyler Allgeier. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds — albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds).

At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time (85th percentile), ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle (54th percentile) and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds (48th percentile).

Evans’ best-case scenario is he lands on a weak depth chart somewhere similar to what we saw last season with Pierce. Like Evans, Pierce never took over a college backfield but did on the Texans with little competition.

Evan Hull (RB – Northwestern)

Evan Hull is going to be a draft-day steal for a team that takes him on Day 3. The Northwestern product spent the past two seasons owning his team’s backfield as a mega-producer posting back-to-back seasons with a 35% dominator rating. The 5-foot-10 and 209-pound back hauled in 87 passes for 800 receiving yards as a full-blown three-down back while forcing over 100 missed tackles. With a decorated production profile and desirable athleticism — 78th percentile or better tester in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and 3-cone drill — Hull rising the ranks in an NFL backfield should surprise nobody. He led all FBS running backs in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

Eric Gray (RB – Oklahoma)

Eric Gray first burst onto the college football scene at Tennessee in 2020, rushing for 758 yards and four TDs with 31 catches for 262 yards en route to a 26% dominator rating as a sophomore. After the season, Gray transferred to Oklahoma for his last two years of college ball. His numbers fell after he lost his starting job in 2021, but he regained RB1 duties the following year. And he made his final year count, posting a 26% dominator rating with Kennedy Brooks off to the NFL.

Gray finished the 2022 season third in the class in PFF receiving grade and fifth in PFF rushing grade. The 5-foot-9 and 207-pound rusher finished the year third in positive rushing EPA and fourth in boom rate (rushes generating an EPA of one-plus). And per Sports Info Solutions, Gray posted the highest missed tackle rate per 100 touches in the class.

But his athleticism (or sheer lack of it) leaves a lot to be desired, as does his inability to beat out Brooks for starting duties in 2021. His pro day timed 4.62 40-yard dash ranks in the 26th percentile. His 3-cone drill was also bad (20th percentile). His vertical jump (83rd) was his only highlight during combine testing, as his 20-yard shuttle was average at best (65th percentile).

Gray is the severely discounted version of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

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