We have made it through another week of the MLB season, and there were some awe-inspiring performances. But, as usual, there were also a few rougher performances to dig into. This weekly column will help highlight some hot and cold players, and risers and fallers for fantasy purposes. Some players are already rostered in many places so trades may be in order. Others may be widely available, making a potential waiver wire claim in the cards. So this week, I will highlight some known and lesser-known players.
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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: Week 3
Let’s see some of the risers and fallers for fantasy baseball in Week 3 (4/10-4/16).
Risers
Many were frustrated with Murphy’s performance and playing time in the first week of the season. He was splitting time almost equally with Travis d’Arnaud. Last last week, d’Arnaud went on the 7-day concussion IL, which opened up a full range of playing time for Murphy.
Murphy took off with the playing time and crushed last week. He hit safely in four of five games, with multiple hits in three. He collected nine extra-base hits, including three home runs. Murphy drove in 11 runs to go with a .789 ISO and 1.846 OPS. He was locked in, walking 16.7% of the time with a 41.7% barrel rate and 58.3% hard-hit rate.
Sure, this is not sustainable. Murphy struck out nearly 30% of the time, which is less than ideal. However, despite a few red flags and known regression, Murphy returned confidence to fantasy managers as he again looked worthy of one of the top-catching picks in drafts.
It took some time, even a few years, but Kelenic appears to be breaking out. This past week, Kelenic hit safely in all five games entering Sunday. Kelenic had four home runs with a .471 batting average and .824 ISO. His 41.7% barrel rate and 58.3% hard-hit rate are outstanding.
Kelenic is breaking out, and it’s great to see. He won’t always have monster weeks like this, but he is proving that he is the offensive talent analysts have expected him to be for years. Kelenic is the perfect example of prospect growth being non-linear, so patience is sometimes in order with even the worst starts of elite prospects.
Witt was off to a slow start in the first week of the season, but he quickly reminded fantasy managers of his talent. This past week, Witt hit safely in all five games heading into Sunday, suitable for a .545 batting average. He collected three extra-base hits to go with four stolen bases. Witt’s plate discipline was next level, as he struck out only 8.7% of the time, which meant a lot of balls in play with his 40% hard-hit rate. There were no home runs, but those will come; enjoy the speed for now and the power when it arrives.
Rizzo is having an excellent season, but his early back issues were limiting playing time, which in turn limited his ceiling. This past week, he played in all six games leading into Sunday and had hits in all six games. Rizzo also hit three home runs while only striking out 16%. He hit third every day for the Yankees, which paid off with his 10.5% barrel rate and 63.2% hard-hit rate. Rizzo is locked into the middle of a potent Yankees lineup, making him insanely valuable for your fantasy teams.
When Lowe is healthy, he can be valuable for fantasy. And lucky for fantasy managers this early in the season, Lowe is healthy and raking. This past week, he hit .389 with a .556 ISO and three home runs. Lowe had a 30.8% barrel rate and 69.2% hard-hit rate, while also throwing in a stolen base. Lowe did strike out 26.3% of the time, which is always concerning, and an eventual IL stint is likely, but for now, enjoy a red-hot Lowe on one of the best teams in baseball.
Fallers
O’Neill hit .255 with a home run and a stolen base last week. Not a horrible week when looking at just statistics. But the problem is that he can’t rack up statistics on the bench. Lars Nootbaar returned to the Cardinals on Saturday and he started both games over O’Neil with an RHP on the mound. If O’Neill is moving towards the short side of a platoon, then his fantasy value plummets in a big way, and there is a significant cause for concern.
Many were expecting a bounce-back season for Abreu, and so far, we have not seen that bounce back. This past week, Abreu was hitting .136 heading into Sunday with a .045 ISO. Unfortunately, Abreu had zero barrels with a 26.7% hard-hit rate. Even worse, Abreu was striking out nearly 31% of the time. It is unlikely that Abreu will lose playing time, but poor production like this is detrimental for fantasy managers.
Larnach had an impressive start to the season, but there were definite signs he was overachieving. The regression monster hit quickly, as Larnach collected only three hits heading into Sunday, suitable for a .143 batting average. The most concerning aspect of his rough week was a 47.6% strikeout rate. He struck out nearly half of his at-bats! That will not cut it at any level, let alone the major leagues. Max Kepler is returning and if Larnach continues to struggle, he could start seeing a severe dip in playing time.
After allowing five runs over six innings in his second start, it got worse for Singer. He faced off against the Braves in Atlanta and allowed eight runs over five innings. Singer allowed four home runs in that start as well as a 29.4% barrel rate and 82.4% hard-hit rate. Singer did get eight strikeouts with a 36.3% O-Swing and 15.3% SwStr. He was somewhat effective, but he could not get any success with his fastball. Singer needs to make some serious pitch mix changes if he plans to repeat his excellent 2022 season.
Bubic had two great starts to kick off the season, making him one of the most popular FAAB additions heading into last week. Unfortunately, it did not go well for Bubic, as he allowed five runs in five innings versus the Braves. His velocity was down, and there were severe flashbacks to the Bubic of old. It worsened as he was diagnosed with a left flexor strain and is now on the IL.
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