This marks my first MLB DFS article of the year, and I’m ecstatic to be back at it. This is one of my favorite sports to cover, and it’s been amazing watching the first few days of the season. We still have a lot to learn about these clubs, and we’ll have to base most of our picks on past statistics. That’s normal at this time of the year, but we’ll adapt the deeper we get into the year! In addition, we’ll focus on the day games beginning at 4ET because we only have three games happening at night.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
This marks my first MLB DFS article of the year, and I’m ecstatic to be back at it. This is one of my favorite sports to cover, and it’s been amazing watching the first few days of the season. We still have a lot to learn about these clubs, and we’ll have to base most of our picks on past statistics. That’s normal at this time of the year, but we’ll adapt the deeper we get into the year! In addition, we’ll focus on the day games beginning at 4ET because we only have three games happening at night.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Starting Pitcher Strategy
We’re diving into the middle of these rotations, leaving us with some interesting options. We were supposed to have Justin Verlander against the Marlins, but we lost that start due to an injury. We still have one of the best breakouts from last season in the best possible matchup, so let’s start there!
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at WAS
Strider was the best rookie in baseball last season and one of the best pitchers in the league. The youngster had a 2.67 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while posting an absurd 13.8 K/9 rate. That made him a top option in DFS last year, and there’s no chance Washington gets him off to a slow start. The Nats were 28th in wOBACON last year and are projected to have one of the worst lineups in baseball. That’s why Strider is a -250 favorite in this spot!
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. PIT
Lodolo got off to a rough start last year, but his late-season surge made him a popular breakout candidate this year. The southpaw had a 2.02 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate over his final 13 starts. That should be easy to duplicate against Pittsburgh, with the Pirates ranked 28th in OBP, wOBA, K rate, and xwOBA last year. In their last matchup, Lodolo picked up 11 Ks in one of the best starts of his career.
GPP Recommendations:
Chris Sale (BOS) vs. BAL
This is risky, but people forget how good this former Cy Young winner can be. Through the first nine years of his career, Sale had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He also had one of the best K rates in the league, and injuries are the only thing that has derailed him over recent years. It’s not like we’re worried about the O’s, with Baltimore ranked 20th in runs scored and 22nd in WOBA last year. If Sale recaptures his form, this is the cheapest he’ll be all season.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) at OAK
Sandoval had an ugly WHIP last season, but we can’t fade him against a team like the A’s. Oakland is projected to have the worst offense in MLB, ranked dead-last in OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA last season. That’s scary against a streaky pitcher like Sandoval, with the southpaw posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four meetings with Oakland last year.
Top Lineup Stacks
It’s hard to understand why Kremer made this rotation, and Grayson Rodriguez didn’t. In any case, we will capitalize on that mistake, with Kremer compiling a 4.55 ERA and 1.38 WHIP throughout his career. He’s been especially bad in Fenway Park, allowing 14 runs across 13.1 innings in three starts in Boston.
Gray had a lot of promise when he was a top prospect for the Dodgers, but it hasn’t reflected at this level. The right-hander has been getting rocked throughout his career, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through two years. He’s also got one of the worst home run rates in the league, which is terrifying since he faces one of the best lineups in the game here.
Cincinnati Reds (vs. Rich Hill)
This is risky with the lack of talent in Cincy’s lineup, but they’re one of the best cheap stacks on the board. To say Rich Hill is over the hill would be an understatement, totaling a 4.37 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last year. The 43-year-old is simply picking up checks from Pittsburgh at this point, and having to pitch in a park like GABP has to be horrifying for the veteran.
Core Studs
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Aaron Judge (NYY) |
$6,400 |
$4,400 |
| 1B |
Matt Olson (ATL) |
$4,700 |
$3,700 |
| 3B |
Rafael Devers (BOS) |
$5,800 |
$3,900 |
| DH |
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) |
$6,300 |
$4,200 |
| OF |
Byron Buxton (MIN) |
$6,000 |
$3,700 |
- Judge was the best player in fantasy last season, and it wasn’t close. The big man took down MVP honors behind his 62 homers and 131 RBI. He showed that was no fluke, knocking out a homer in his first at-bat of the season. Alex Cobb will have a hard time limiting homers in Yankee Stadium, generating a 5.30 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road over the last two years.
- We just discussed how Gray allows homers at a rapid pace, and Olson is one of the best power hitters in our sport. The left-handed masher has a ridiculous .252 career ISO, accruing a .343 OBP and .506 SLG since his sophomore season. He’s also been much better against righties.
- If we love the BoSox, we have to adore their best hitter. That’s Devers, who’s a lock for 30 homers, a .300 AVG, and 100 RBI every year. Most of that damage has come against right-handers, registering a .360 OBP, .586 SLG, and .946 OPS against them since 2020.
- I never thought Shohei could turn into this type of player, but he’s legitimately one of the greatest baseball players of all time. He’s especially good at hitting when facing right-handers, tallying a .369 OBP and .921 OPS against them since being signed. This is a righty we’re not worried about, with Shintaro Fujinami making his first career start for one of their worst rotations in the league.
- Buxton has been marred by injuries throughout his career, but people forget how incredible he can be. The three-hole hitter was third in baseball with nearly 10 DK points per game last season and is one of the best dual threats in baseball. We love that since he faces Jordan Lyles, lamenting a 5.10 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 1,326 career innings.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| SS/3B |
Wander Franco (TB) |
$4,600 |
$3,300 |
| 2B |
Jonathan India (CIN) |
$4,900 |
$3,300 |
| 1B |
Darrick Hall (PHI) |
$2,700 |
$2,200 |
| OF |
Max Kepler (MIN) |
$3,900 |
$2,500 |
| OF |
TJ Friedl (CIN) |
$3,200 |
$2,500 |
- I genuinely feel like this is the Franco breakout season. This guy posted historic numbers at the minors and kicked off his 2023 season with a dinger in the opener. That makes him an enticing option against Spencer Turnbull, giving Wander the platoon advantage from the left side.
- If we like the Reds, we have to love their leadoff hitter. That’s India, who picked up two hits in Cincy’s opener. That’s the stud we saw in his rookie season, and we’re willing to overlook some disappointing averages from what was an injury-filled 2022 season. He also bats from the right side against Hill and should be the table-setter in this sneaky stack.
- The Rhy Hoskins injury sucks, but Hall will fill in for him at first base. What we didn’t expect is that he would fill in for him at the cleanup spot as well. That’s no surprise when looking at his minor league numbers, accumulating a .480 SLG and .817 OPS throughout his minor league career.
- Kepler has been killing righties throughout his career, and it’s why he typically bats leadoff in these circumstances. The southpaw slugger is flirting with a .350 OBP and .800 OPS against righties throughout his career. We already talked about how bad Lyles has been, making Kepler one of the best value plays on the board.
- This Reds team is full of unknown hitters, but Friedl should have a prominent spot in this order against lefties all year. While he’s only had 28 at-bats against southpaws, TJ has totaled a .429 OBP, .625 SLG, and 1.054 OPS against them. That should continue in his hitter-friendly ballpark, especially against a 43-year-old pitcher.
Hitter Strategy
This is a strange slate. We don’t have many great pitchers, but we don’t have many terrible ones either. That’s what happens when you’re in the third day of the season because we’re in the middle of these rotations. In any case, there are some great spots, but the Reds are my best per-dollar stack on the slate. I’d be shocked if they’re held to fewer than five runs, and you can use all of these guys for way too cheap. Start your stack there and then figure things out from the rest of the recommendations.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
