Any fantasy article that discusses avoiding players requires a standard warning. The following rookies shouldn’t be avoided at all costs. Instead, they should be faded at their present average draft positions (ADP) at Underdog Fantasy.
Best Ball Rookies to Avoid
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC): 88.6 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
Johnston was the second wide receiver picked in this year’s NFL Draft. The Chargers chose him with the 21st pick. Johnston was highly productive in TCU’s surprising trip to the National Championship game. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he had 60 receptions for 1,067 yards and six touchdowns on 97 targets.
However, Johnston was inconsistent. He had under 30 receiving yards four times, excluding a game he ran only one route against Texas Tech. He also had two more games under 50 receiving yards. Yet, Johnston also blew up four times for more than 135 receiving yards.
Johnston’s big-play ability and boom-or-bust profile better fit best ball than managed leagues. Nevertheless, he’s selected too early for a player with many options ahead of him in the pecking order. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are firmly ahead of him in the pass-catching hierarchy. Assuming the Chargers can iron things out with Austin Ekeler, he’s also ahead of Johnston. In addition, Gerald Everett is a viable pass-catching tight end, and the Chargers could take their time and ease Johnston into the No. 3 wide receiver role by rotating him with Joshua Palmer. Thus, a top-100 pick is too steep of a price to pay.
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA): 101.4 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
Charbonnet was one of my favorite running back prospects and was highlighted as an RB3 with RB1 upside in February. Furthermore, he has excellent draft capital. Charbonnet was the third running back picked in the NFL Draft and the only one taken in the second round.
Sadly, he landed on the Seahawks. Seattle spent a second-round pick on Kenneth Walker in 2022. And as a rookie, Walker had 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. Walker ran with a home-run-hitting style instead of taking what was given to him. Charbonnet can complement Walker’s big-play ability as a more sustaining hard-yardage ball carrier.
Charbonnet is a superior receiver, and Pete Carroll specifically called out the incoming rookie’s ability in the screen game. Yet, the Seahawks spent a seventh-round pick on a pass-catching running back. Kenny McIntosh was a pass-catching whiz for the Georgia Bulldogs. Per PFF, among 119 FBS running backs targeted at least 20 times, McIntosh was third in Yards per Route Run (2.21 Y/RR), eighth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (12.3 YAC/REC), ninth in targets (49), tied for seventh in receptions (42) and second in receiving yards (509). So, McIntosh could be the team’s passing-down running back, splitting up the backfield pie into a three-back committee and damaging the fantasy value of Walker and Charbonnet.
As a result, Charbonnet could need multiple injuries to be featured as a bell-cow running back. Charbonnet should be drafted closer to the other handcuffs instead of commanding a near-top-100 selection.
Josh Downs (WR – IND): 170.9 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
It’s a double whammy of bad news for Downs. First, he had lousy draft capital. Downs was the 12th wide receiver picked, slipping to the 16th pick in the third round. Second, Indianapolis’s passing attack could be ugly this season.
The Colts picked Anthony Richardson fourth. Richardson’s a freak athlete but an inaccurate passer. He had the eighth-lowest completion percentage (53.0%) and the ninth-lowest Adjusted Completion Percentage (64.1%) among FBS quarterbacks who dropped back at least 200 times last year. Perhaps, Gardner Minshew will start in Week 1. However, many teams reportedly believe Richardson will be the Week 1 starter.
The Colts will likely rely heavily on the run. New head coach and offensive play-caller Shane Steichen was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles the previous three years. In 2022 while the Eagles developed Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia had a run-first offense. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Eagles were 23rd in pass attempts (536) and third in rush attempts (544). A low-volume passing attack led by an inaccurate quarterback is a nightmare for Indy’s pass-catchers, including Downs. So, the floor and ceiling are low for Downs, making him only a stacking target for best ball teams with Richardson and an easy fade as a one-off choice.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
