Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three- or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on after the first month of the season.
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Buy Low
Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
Betts has struggled early into the season, slashing .232/.339/.424 with four home runs and a stolen base. In spite of the struggles, he still has great plate skills and the max exit velocity is right where it was last season. I am not worried about one of the safest players of this era.
Alex Bregman (3B – HOU)
Bregman is slashing just .211/.354/.343 with three home runs so far this season which has been disappointing. However, the plate skills are still elite with him walking more than he is striking out and he is making elite contact in the zone. His xBA is .266 and is just getting unlucky on balls in play. The power will come around.
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)
Gilbert has thrown 27.2 innings with a 4.23 ERA, but the underlying numbers are really nice. He is striking out 30% of the batters he is facing and he has a career-best walk rate. His xERA is 2.77 and he is getting a lot of ground balls on top of the strikeouts. I think he is taking a step forward and it is under the radar.
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR)
Berrios has been awful for about a year and a half, but he has been great recently. Over his last three starts, Berrios has a 1.42 ERA and his xERA is just 1.94. His WHIP is 0.68 and he is striking out 26% of the hitters he has faced. We are starting to see the old Berrios and you are running out of time to buy low.
Sell High
Brandon Marsh (OF – PHI)
This one hurts me to write, but Marsh can’t keep this up. He is slashing .341/.426/.671 with four home runs and a stolen base. However, the average is propped up by a .471 BABIP. He is still striking out at a 28.7% rate and his xBA is .249. I think he has improved beyond what he was with the Angels, but this is unsustainable.
Matt Olson (1B – ATL)
Olson’s line is right where you would expect it to be with eight home runs and a .252 batting average, so why would I sell? Olson’s average is buoyed up by a .346 BABIP and his xAVG is .211. He has the worst zone contact of any qualified hitter in baseball and is striking out at a 35% rate. I am really worried about him.
Yusei Kikuchi (SP – TOR)
Kikuchi has pitched well with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 26% strikeout rate this season. However, his xERA is 4.68 and he is allowing two home runs per nine innings. He is allowing too much zone contact and the swinging strike rate is just 11.8% which means the strikeouts are likely coming down. Kikuchi always gets blown up, so hop off now.
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
Listen, Kershaw is great and he is pitching really well right now. The only reason I would sell him is because he has been unable to stay healthy in recent years. He hasn’t thrown more than 126.1 innings since 2019 and even when he is healthy the Dodgers manage his innings to make sure he is available for the playoffs. I can understand riding it out, but it is a matter of time before he hits the IL again.
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