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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List: Caleb Ferguson, Brett Baty (Week 9)

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List: Caleb Ferguson, Brett Baty (Week 9)

This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.

The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.

The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your leaguemates.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant

Fantasy Baseball Advice

Here are waiver wire players to watch and dynasty fantasy baseball advice for this week.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List

Caleb Ferguson (RP – LAD)

Evan Phillips, more often than not, will likely be getting the save opportunity in a game should it arise for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Phillips has accumulated seven of the Los Angeles’ 15 saves this season, and his save total is more than twice as many as the next Dodgers reliever.

And while Brusdar Graterol, who has logged three saves, has long looked like the best ancillary save option if Phillips isn’t available, the former Twins pitcher might be ceding ground to Caleb Ferguson in that regard.

Of course, ancillary saves on winning baseball teams are always situations to chase – or at the very least seriously consider in most fantasy leagues. That’s especially true with the secondary sources of saves in Los Angeles, who might have more fantasy upside than some full-time closers, given the National League West club’s win potential.

The Dodgers entered play Monday tied for the fourth-most wins in the league while at the same time having the sixth-most save chances. What’s more, Phillips has been deployed before the ninth inning at times by manager Dave Roberts, further underscoring the fantasy potential here. Case in point, the right-hander has four holds to his name so far, and 11 of his appearances this season have started before the ninth inning.

Both Graterol and Ferguson have benefited from that from a saves standpoint. The duo has combined for five saves so far. However, moving forward, Ferguson might be the reliever to roster, not only for ancillary saves but also as a potential backup option if injury or ineffectiveness strikes Phillips.

Of course, this has nothing to do with Graterol’s effectiveness. The reliever has been plenty good this season with a 1.99 ERA and a 2.10 FIP in 22.2 innings, to go along with 18 strikeouts compared to just three walks.

No, it has more to do with how the Dodgers have utilized Ferguson, who’s having a strong season of his own.

The 26-year-old has pitched to a 1.42 ERA, a 2.29 FIP, 23 strikeouts and nine walks in 19 innings this season while also doubling as Los Angeles’ most-utilized high-leverage reliever.

Ferguson paces the club with 13 high-leverage appearances, with Phillips and Graterol tied for second with seven apiece.

And while the left-hander is tied with Graterol for the most high-leverage ninth-inning appearances, with four each, he would seem like the most logical choice to step into Phillips’ ninth inning (but occasionally earlier if the need arises) role given how much the Dodgers trust him in high-leverage situations.

Phillips was Los Angeles’ most-utilized high-leverage reliever after Craig Kimbrel in 2022, finishing with just one fewer high-leverage outing than the veteran. This is not to say Phillips is suddenly not going to pitch the ninth inning or that Phillips and Ferguson are the same type of pitcher. But it’s clear that Los Angeles trusts Ferguson in key situations, and considering how they utilize Phillips in such spots, the left-hander would seem to be an ideal replacement if Phillips was injured or dealing with ineffectiveness.

Brett Baty (3B – NYM)

Brett Baty appeared in this column as a dynasty addition or trade target earlier in the season. And while he’s very much someone to add to your team in dynasty formats, he’s worth a look in redraft formats as well.

Of course, that’s not inherently obvious when looking at the infielder’s .246 batting average, .315 on-base percentage and four home runs in 127 plate appearances for the New York Mets, but there’s plenty of potential here.

Not just Baty’s potential as a prospect and a player in general, mind you, but the potential to turn things around significantly at the plate this season. Given the rather lukewarm start, there’s a chance someone in your redraft league dropped the Mets rookie.

If that’s the case, go and add Baty now, or if he wasn’t dropped, see if you can acquire him as a secondary player in a larger deal.

The surface-level stats seem rather unideal, but the underlying metrics point to some quality contact being made, not to mention serious positive regression coming in the future.

Ok, so that’s slightly spoiling the next bit, but here are four batters and some of their expected and quality of contact metrics.

  • Batter A: 52.0% hard-hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, .275 xBA, .468 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, .451 xwOBAcon
  • Batter B: 52.3% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, .275 xBA, .466 xSLG, .356 xwOBA, .428 xwOBAcon
  • Batter C: 51.6% hard-hit rate, 13.5% barrel rate, .274 xBA, .537 xSLG, .360 xwOBA, .442 xwOBAcon
  • Batter D: 53.6% hard-hit rate, 8.7% barrel rate, .287 xBA, .369 xSLG, .369 xwOBA, .441 xwOBAcon

Batter A is Julio Rodriguez. Batter B is Baty.

Batter C and Batter D, like Rodriguez, are two players fantasy managers everywhere used early-round draft picks to select in the spring in Rafael Devers and Christian Yelich, respectively.

That’s pretty good company to keep.

And while there’s a bit of a discrepancy in terms of difference in plate appearances – Baty has 127 as of the start of play on Monday while Rodriguez, Devers and Yelich all have at least 209 – it shows the rookie third baseman is making the right type of contact at the plate. He just doesn’t have the results to show for it. Yet.

Plus, with Eduardo Escobar struggling, Baty has all but taken over as New York’s primary third baseman. With Escobar still sporting a .292 xwOBA, the third base job could very well be Baty’s for the rest of the season.

While the Mets haven’t been an elite run-scoring team so far, they did enter Monday in the top half of the league regarding runs scored – New York was 13th – and Baty has hit fifth in 10 of his last 12 starts. If that trend continues, it’ll only improve his fantasy ceiling moving forward this season, especially once the positive regression hits.

Fantasy Baseball Lineup Assistant

Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week

Gavin Williams (SP – CLE)

Gavin Williams is much more of a long-term play, both for this season and moving forward. The right-hander has been absolutely dominant in the Minors this year.

He struck out 20 while scattering six hits, three walks and an earned run in 14.1 Double-A innings – over the course of three starts – to begin the year before a promotion to Triple-A. With Cleveland’s Triple-A club in Columbus, Williams has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and a 3.33 FIP in 32 innings while striking out 11.81 batters per nine frames and surrendering just 3.36 walks and 0.84 home runs per nine innings.

There’s significant fantasy upside here with Williams, who ranked sixth on FanGraphs’ list of the top 50 Guardians prospects earlier this year.

FanGraphs‘ Eric Longenhagen noted Williams’ injury history while writing the following about the starter in a write-up on the organization’s top 50 prospects on Jan. 23:

“His slider execution is especially consistent, though his curveball has the more visually pleasing movement. Increased changeup emphasis, which was already evident during Williams’ first instructs, has occurred in pro ball, and while Williiams’ meal ticket is his mid-90s fastball, which he rips past hitters a the letters, he has three viable weapons right now and might have a fourth as his changeup develops. It’s a mid-rotation starter’s stuff, and healthy Williams should produce at the Big League level…”

The only real question with Williams is when he’ll get his shot to join fellow prospects Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee in what’s set to become an increasingly crowded Major League rotation.

Including Allen, Bibee and staff ace Shane Bieber, the American League Central club has used eight different starters this year. That list doesn’t include Triston McKenzie, who has been on the injured list all year due to a teres major strain. The team has also gotten just two starts from Aaron Civale so far due to the right-hander missing time due to an oblique strain.

The team also has Cal Quantrill, Hunter Gaddis, Peyton Battenfield and Zach Plesac on hand, though all have struggled at times this season. All four have thrown at least 21 innings for Cleveland, and all four have a FIP above the 4.50 mark.

Though with both McKenzie and Civale in the process of making rehab starts, it seems Williams’ Major League debut might come later rather than sooner this season, although that’s purely speculative.

Still, he’s very much worth an add for fantasy managers right now. Given the success of young pitching prospects making instant impacts in the Majors, like Allen, Bibee, Bryce Miller, Mason Miller, Taj Bradley and others, it’s possible, or more likely probable, that Williams will draw significant attention on waivers whenever he gets set to join the Major League rotation.

CTAs


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