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Overvalued Rookies to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Overvalued Rookies to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

It brings me great joy to produce NFL content for the 2023 season. With the calendar now turned over to May and the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy draft season is rapidly approaching (and for some, is already underway). For now, we take our first look at the rookie class, where their ADPs currently sit and analyze which young players are over or undervalued based on their position.

There were 10 offensive players taken in the first round of this year’s draft – all 10 of which have a great opportunity to contribute to their respective teams out of the gate. This includes three quarterbacks selected in the top four picks, two top-12 running backs, and a flurry of four straight receivers selected between picks 20 and 23. To top it all off, 2023 represented the deepest tight end rookie class we have seen in nearly a decade, marking five total players drafted at the position by pick No. 58 in the second round.

Every new season represents excitement around new offensive possibilities in the fantasy landscape. In this article, we’ll look at a few of these skills position players and help articulate whether or not they will be able to develop into studs and smash their ADP or if they will fall short of expectations. As both a season-long drafter and NFL Best Ball connoisseur, I’ll touch on both aspects for the upcoming list.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Over/Undervalued Rookies Based on ADP (2023 Fantasy Football)

(ADPs courtesy of ESPN’s PPR rankings & Underdog Fantasy’s ADP)

Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)

ESPN ADP: 124 overall (WR51) | UD ADP: 86.6 overall (WR43)

Selected at pick No. 21 overall by the Chargers, Quentin Johnston ended up being the second wide receiver drafted behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in April. He figures to slot in as a complementary field stretcher and boundary receiver alongside Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the Los Angeles passing attack. However, there were some concerns surrounding Johnston coming out of the draft.

The rookie had eight dropped passes in 2022 and posted just a 34.8% contested catch rate, which is far too low for a player of his stature. His route running has also been regarded as below-average, though his 6-foot-3 frame should be capable of making up for any lack of finesse.

The Chargers used 11 personnel in the top half of NFL teams last season, which should continue in 2023. My main concern is whether Johnson will regularly see the field as the third wide receiver or if he will have to rotate in only when Williams or Allen needs a blow. It is very unlikely the rookie will be thrown in the slot at any point. Johnston has the early look of a fade in a system that, while theoretically should be able to produce three-four fantasy stalwarts each season, has stunningly been unable to do so.

Consensus: Overvalued

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