Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Most Overrated Player on Each NFC West Team
NFC West
| TEAM | ANDREW | DEREK | PAT | JOE |
| Arizona Cardinals | DeAndre Hopkins | James Conner | Marquise Brown | James Conner |
| Los Angeles Rams | Tyler Higbee | Tyler Higbee | Matthew Stafford | Tyler Higbee |
| San Francisco 49ers | Deebo Samuel | Deebo Samuel | Brock Purdy | Deebo Samuel |
| Seattle Seahawks | DK Metcalf | Kenneth Walker | Kenneth Walker | Kenneth Walker |
Arizona Cardinals – Marquise Brown
Can we stop wishcasting stardom for Hollywood Brown until he actually starts performing like a star? Brown has been in the league for four years and has finished with fewer than 800 receiving yards in three of them. His TD production has been modest — 24 TDs in 58 regular-season games. Brown has a career average of 7.2 yards per target. That’s not a good number. For sake of comparison, one of the players Brown has been compared to, DeSean Jackson, averaged 9.8 yards per target for his career. Maybe there’s still a 1,300-yard, 10-TD season lurking for Hollywood, but we haven’t seen nearly enough to suggest that a monstrous breakout season is inevitable. – Fitzmaurice
Los Angeles Rams – Tyler Higbee
Higbee squandered his volume last year, and it’s hard to imagine him not doing so again in 2023. Last season despite ranking fourth in target share and overall target volume among tight ends, Higbee was the TE15 in fantasy. Woof! Higbee won’t be among my late-round tight-end targets this year. – DBro
San Francisco 49ers – Deebo Samuel
Deebo Samuel’s role in this offense has been neutered. He’s been regulated to low aDOT empty volume on a run-heavy offense. Samuel hasn’t crested 14.0 fantasy points per game in either season in this role. Samuel is a WR3 being drafted as a top-20 option at the position. – DBro
Seattle Seahawks – DK Metcalf
While DK Metcalf possesses undeniable talent and the potential to be the Seattle Seahawks’ primary wide receiver, it’s important to consider his value in fantasy football drafts. Selecting Metcalf significantly earlier than his teammates may not be the most strategic move. In 2022, Tyler Lockett outperformed Metcalf, finishing as the WR12 overall and WR15 in points per game, despite both players having identical target shares in 2021. The emergence of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba further adds to the target competition in the offense. For Metcalf to justify his WR15 average draft position (ADP), he heavily relies on a bounce-back in touchdown production. In 2022, he recorded a career-low of six receiving touchdowns, despite posting personal bests in receptions (90) and targets (141) – Erickson
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