Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is medium-sized, featuring eight games starting at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s DFS primer offers suggestions for two starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options leave much to be desired tonight. As a result, the picks are reduced to the two options on the table, despite the slate having eight games. They're the best duo in all game types at DK. The top-ranked pitcher is the best option in all game types at FD, with the second-ranked option an intriguing pivot in GPPs.
Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. MIN
Castillo never pitched at T-Mobile Park before the Mariners traded for him last year. Fortunately, he's dominated pitching there since the trade. According to Baseball-Reference, in 17 starts spanning 103.0 innings at T-Mobile Park, Castillo has had a 2.27 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 5.5 BB% and 31.7 K%.
Castillo's elite strikeout rate in Seattle can serve him well tonight against the strikeout-prone Twins. Per FanGraphs, Minnesota has a 27.2 K% versus righties and a 27.5 K% on the road this year. In addition, the betting info is outstanding. According to Betting Pros, the Mariners are -165, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
Justin Verlander (NYM) vs. CWS
Verlander has underachieved in his first season on the Mets. Nevertheless, he's pitched well at home. In 42.0 innings at home this year, the 40-year-old righty has a 2.57 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 8.3 BB% and 23.2 K%.
Verlander also has excellent pitch-modeling data lately. He has a 114 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 100 Pitching+ in his previous five starts. Verlander can use his still electric stuff to carve up Chicago's lousy offense.
The White Sox are 28th in wRC+ (84) and have a 23.5 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also tied for 24th in wRC+ (88) and have a 24.3 K% on the road this year. Finally, the Mets are -210, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. So, the betting info supports using Verlander in all game types tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Reds have an exciting offense with their influx of youth since tapping into the minors to summon their top prospects. As a result, eight of the projected starters have at least a 107 wRC+ against righties this year, and five have at least a 117 wRC+. They should rake tonight in a plus matchup in their hitter-friendly ballpark. Ross Stripling has a 6.11 ERA and 5.33 xERA in 45.2 innings (eight starts and five relief appearances) this season. He's also coughed up 2.36 HR/9. And Stripling's homer problem should be exacerbated at Great American "Small" Park.
- Home (Citi Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYM -210
The Mets were one of many teams that erupted for double-digit runs last night. A repeat of last night's performance is unlikely. Still, they're tied for 11th in wRC+ (104) versus righties this year and have a potentially good matchup tonight.
Touki Toussaint has a 3.38 ERA in 24.0 innings (three starts and three relief appearances) this season. However, the righty has a 4.96 xERA, 4.75 xFIP and 17.6 BB%, indicating imminent regression. Finally, New York's left-handed batters are the most exciting stacking options since Toussaint has ceded a .344 wOBA to them this season and a .373 wOBA to them in his career.
- In 313 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has 26 homers, a .387 OBP, .355 ISO and 167 wRC+.
- Ozzie Albies has a .237 ISO and 100 wRC+ in 308 plate appearances against righties this year. However, he's an excellent choice because he hits second for the Braves and has a tasty matchup. The 207 lefties who've faced Ryne Nelson this year torched him for a .361 OBP, .530 SLG and .378 wOBA.
- Jake Fraley has 12 homers, 13 stolen bases, a .383 OBP, .220 ISO and 136 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances against righties this season.
- Zach Neto has a .349 OBP, .263 ISO and 141 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie season.
- In 188 plate appearances against righties this season, Mike Yastrzemski has a .353 OBP, .238 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- Brett Baty has raked at home with the platoon advantage. A small sample size probably influences his massive home/road split. Still, in 103 plate appearances against righties at home, Baty has five homers, a .353 OBP, .207 ISO and 143 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
Gamers should construct a stars-and-scrubs lineup using the suggested studs and values/punts in cash games. But stacking the Reds and Mets is appealing in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
