Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Most Overrated Player on Each NFC East Team
NFC East
| TEAM | ANDREW | DEREK | PAT | JOE |
| Dallas Cowboys | CeeDee Lamb | Dak Prescott | Dak Prescott | Dak Prescott |
| New York Giants | Saquon Barkley | Daniel Jones | Darren Waller | Darren Waller |
| Philadelphia Eagles | D’Andre Swift | D’Andre Swift | D’Andre Swift | D’Andre Swift |
| Washington Commanders | Brian Robinson Jr. | Brian Robinson Jr. | Brian Robinson Jr. | Terry McLaurin |
Dallas Cowboys – Dak Prescott
Seeing Dak Prescott as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in ECR was shocking. Even if we gloss over Kellen Moore’s departure, we can’t escape the pace and passing rate worries surrounding Mike McCarthy. Last year Prescott was the QB13 in fantasy points per game and QB21 in expected fantasy points per game. Splitting the difference here with a mid-QB2 valuation on Prescott feels more appropriate. – DBro
New York Giants – Darren Waller
Sure, Waller was terrific in 2019 and 2020, but that was a long time ago. In the two seasons since, he’s missed 14 games, and he’s scored only five touchdowns in the 20 games he’s been able to suit up for. In 2019-2020, Waller averaged 73.2 receiving yards per game. In 2021-2022, he averaged 52.7 receiving yards per game. Waller will turn 31 in September. He’ll be adjusting to a new quarterback and a new system. And, oh, by the way, Waller will also be facing a difficult schedule littered with a bunch of the teams that were toughest on TEs in 2022. Draft him at your own risk. – Fitzmaurice
Philadelphia Eagles – D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift finds himself in a new situation after being traded from the Lions to the Philadelphia Eagles. While his efficiency in 2022 was impressive, his injury history and lack of projected usage in the passing game may temper expectations for his fantasy output in 2023.
Despite missing time due to injury in his final year with Detroit, Swift still showed promise, ranking fourth in fantasy points per touch and third in yards per carry among all RBs. He was able to create yards after contact and remained efficient on a per-touch basis despite his reduced workload in the Lions’ offense. However, he struggled to find the end zone and didn’t receive the featured role in Detroit’s backfield. Now in Philadelphia, Swift should benefit from a change in scenery and the opportunity for more involvement in the offense.
However, he will have to compete with Rashaad Penny for touches, who has shown himself to be a solid rusher in his own right. Additionally, the Eagles ranked last in RB target share in 2022 (12%), which could limit Swift’s value as a receiver. Despite the uncertainties, Swift’s talent is undeniable and he should be productive on a per-touch basis in 2023. However, fantasy managers should be aware of his injury history and the potential for limited receiving work in the Eagles’ offense. While Swift has the potential to be a league-winner (people will convince themselves) there is massive risk involved with his RB19-22 ADP. – Erickson
Washington Commanders – Brian Robinson Jr.
From Week 6 onward, Brian Robinson displayed his volume-driven production, averaging 17.8 carries and over 70 rushing yards per game. He proved to be a reliable option on the ground, earning praise from PFF with a high grade. However, fantasy managers were left wanting more due to his limited involvement in the passing game, with just nine receptions and a minimal target share. It’s important to note that Robinson’s lack of explosiveness and his style as a “plodder” runner may hinder his chances of becoming a true fantasy star.
However, with the Washington Commanders’ improved offensive line in 2023, Robinson “should” be a reliable option as an RB2/RB3, providing steady production on the ground if he sees the same volume as last season. However, fantasy managers should exercise caution to avoid overpaying for a two-down grinder on a team that faces one of the most challenging projected schedules based on forecasted betting win totals. While Robinson brings value with his workload, it’s crucial to consider the overall situation before investing too heavily in his fantasy stock. – Erickson
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