Here are a few of the players I’m avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 players to avoid.
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Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid
George Kittle (SF) | ECR: TE4, 60th overall
George Kittle has been a highly regarded tight end in fantasy football, but there are reasons to believe that he may be overrated heading into the 2023 season. Without looking it up…who do you think has played more games over the last three seasons? George Kittle or Darren Waller? Trick question. It’s the same. 37 regular season games played.
Decreased Yards per Route Run: Kittle had his lowest yards per route run since his rookie season in 2022. This indicates a potential decline in his effectiveness as a receiver and raises concerns about his ability to consistently produce at a high level.
Target Share and Production: Even with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, Kittle still trailed Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in target share, ranking third in the pecking order (tied with Christian McCaffrey). Without Samuel healthy for four games, Kittle’s fantasy production nearly doubled, with 1.5 receiving TDs per game.
Boom-or-Bust Nature: Kittle’s performance in 2022 was marked by inconsistency. He had six games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, with three of them occurring when Samuel was on the field. However, Kittle did have three games with over 90 receiving yards, mainly when Purdy was at quarterback, and Samuel was absent. His 50% bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top-7 at the position. This volatility makes him a riskier option for fantasy managers.
Target Share and Efficiency: Kittle owned an 8th-ranked 19% target share among all tight ends in 2022 and ranked 13th in target rate per route run at 22%. While these numbers are solid, they don’t necessarily place him in the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.
Touchdown Regression: Kittle significantly outperformed his expected touchdown total, finishing with 11 touchdowns compared to an expected total of 6.2. This suggests that he may experience a regression in touchdown production in 2023, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy output.
Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to argue that George Kittle is overvalued as the TE4 being drafted around the 60th overall pick. His declining yards per route run, inconsistent performances, and the likelihood of touchdown regression make him a riskier option compared to other tight ends available later in the draft.
In Kittle’s draft range, I prefer Kyle Pitts, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is still being drafted 50th in redraft ADP (60th in best ball ADP).
Evan Engram (JAC) | ECR: TE8, 94th overall
Misleading Production: Evan Engram struggled to maintain a top-12 tight end status, achieving it in less than half of his games last season (44 percent). Surprisingly, Engram had the same number of top-six finishes (three) as Noah Fant, Darren Waller, and David Njoku. His total season-long numbers are inflated by his Week 14 blow-up game.
From Weeks 1-13, Engram was the TE15 averaging fewer points per game than Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, and Gerald Everett. After Week 14, Engram jumped all the way to TE4, adding more than two points to his per-game averages.
With his injury history, the addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the draft selection of pass-catching tight end Brenton Strange in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Engram is an easy fade in 2023. Drafting the middle tier of tight end traditionally brings poor ROI. And Engram is going even HIGHER in redraft ADP (80th).
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