Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and tends to drag as the weeks roll on. It’s easy for fantasy managers to lose focus during the grind of the season. And when your opponents lose sight of what’s important, it opens the door for astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
The halfway point of the season is a great benchmark to see the trends and determine who might be underperforming and who might be overperforming. However, hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. And sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up on the surface just yet.
If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try to buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates
Joey Votto (1B, DH – CIN)
Joey Votto has struggled since the All-Star break, hitting .171.267/.434. However, he has also gotten extremely unlucky on balls in play with a .143 BABIP. While I don’t expect him to be a stud hitter ever again, he should be hitting closer to .260, and he at least has still shown the power that makes him a valuable fantasy asset.
Max Muncy (2B, 3B, DH – LAD)
Muncy has been a mixed bag this season, hitting .192/.330/.475. However, he has been extremely unlucky as well on balls in play, posting a .182 BABIP that’s way below his career mark of .248. His xBA is 30 points higher than his actual batting average. Plus, he’s delivered a ton of power with 27 home runs on the season. If his batting average can tick up, Muncy will be a great high-upside add to any lineup.
Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
Nola has struggled this season, posting a 4.58 ERA. However, he has been pretty unlucky, with a 65% strand rate and a 16% home run/fly ball rate. His BABIP in the second half has also been extremely high. His walk rate is fine, and the strikeouts are still there. Acquiring Nola gives you the opportunity to acquire an ace without paying quite as high of a price.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidates
Christopher Morel (2B, OF – CHC)
Morel has been really good this season, hitting .272/.339/.528 with 17 home runs and four stolen bases. However, he has been extremely lucky, running a .354 ERA BABIP. He has the fifth-worst contact rate of any hitter with at least 250 plate appearances and the 12th-worst swinging strike rate. There is some massive regression coming.
Mickey Moniak (OF – PHI)
Moniak has been out of this world so far, hitting .304/.336/.546 with 12 home runs and five stolen bases. However, like Morel, Moniak is a paper tiger. His .422 BABIP is the highest in baseball despite his contact rate being almost the exact same as Morel’s, and his swinging strike rate is actually worse. Moniak’s outstanding production likely can’t hold up.
Blake Snell (SP – SD)
Snell has been fantastic this season, throwing 124 innings with a 2.61 ERA. However, he has gotten lucky in both the BABIP department and the strand rate. He’s posted the worst walk rate of his career this season, and his xERA is over a run more than his actual ERA. I think this is the perfect selling point.
Graham Ashcraft (SP – CIN)
Ashcraft has been fantastic during his last five starts, throwing 31.1 innings with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. However, he has been rather lucky, with a strand rate of 92.6%. To make matters worse, his strikeout rate is abysmal. It may be hard to get a ton for him, considering how inconsistent he’s been, but the downswing feels imminent.
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