Thursday’s MLB DFS main slate begins at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Both platforms feature six-game slates. The Underdog pick’em picks are also from those six games.
Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/2)
Bryce Miller is smashing this year. According to FanGraphs, he has logged the following stats in eight appearances (seven starts and one piggyback appearance) spanning 45.2 innings:
- 3 wins
- 2 quality starts
- 1.97 ERA
- 2.27 xERA
- 2.61 xFIP
- 2.42 SIERA
- 0.72 WHIP
- 3.1% walk rate
- 33.1% strikeout rate
- 110 stuff+
- 113 location+
- 119 pitching+
Miller has a plus-matchup and tasty betting info tonight.
The Angels are tied for 19th in wRC+ (99) with a 24.8% strikeout rate versus righties and second in wRC+ (113) with a 24.4% strikeout rate on the road in 2026.
Their excellence on the road is less threatening since T-Mobile Park has the lowest park factor for runs (0.816). Additionally, the Angels are 29th in wRC+ (76) with a 31% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Mariners are -207 favorites, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.
The game total of 10.5 runs is alarming for Ian Seymour‘s DFS outlook, but at least the Rays are -125 favorites. Seymour’s matchup is also mid-pack. The Royals are 19th in wRC+ (94) with a 20.1% strikeout rate versus lefties and tied for 12th in wRC+ (105) with a 19.9 at home this year. Kansas City is also 15th in wRC+ (98) with a 17.7 K% in the previous 30 days.
As for Seymour, he began the year in the bullpen, making short appearances. He’s stretched out lately, through a mix of starts (two) and longer relief appearances. In his last four appearances (two starts), totaling 19 innings, Seymour has recorded the following numbers:
- 1 win
- 0 quality starts
- 2.84 ERA
- 2.37 xERA
- 4.34 xFIP
- 3.73 SIERA
- 0.79 WHIP
- 6.8% walk rate
- 26% strikeout rate
- 12.1% SwStr%
- 29.5% CSW%
- 106 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 107 pitching+
The 27-year-old lefty held the Royals scoreless on zero hits, one walk and seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings in his most recent appearance. Seymour is an exciting SP2 at DraftKings tonight.
Framber Valdez is in rock-solid form, and he has an appealing salary at both DFS providers. In his last five starts spanning 28 innings, the lefty has amassed the following stats:
- 2 wins
- 2 quality starts
- 3.21 ERA
- 3.70 xERA
- 3.93 xFIP
- 3.84 SIERA
- 1.36 WHIP
- 7.4% walk rate
- 18.9% strikeout rate
- 63.5% strikeout rate
- 7.7% SwStr%
- 24.6% CSW%
- 98 stuff+
- 95 location+
- 98 pitching+
Valdez’s plate-discipline numbers and pitch-modeling data are red flags. Still, his ERA estimators are adequate, and he offsets his underwhelming strikeout rate with a massive ground-ball rate.
Valdez has an alluring matchup and acceptable betting info. The Rangers are 10th in wRC+ (101) with a 25.3% strikeout rate versus lefties and tied for 24th in wRC+ (93) with a 21.9 at home this season. Texas is also 28th in wRC+ (79) with a 22.0 K% in the previous 30 days. Unfortunately, the Tigers are +110 underdogs, but the game’s total is just 8.0 runs, keeping Valdez in the DFS mix.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Dodgers have a cupcake to feast on, squaring off against Randy Vasquez. The 27-year-old righty’s 4.44 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) this season doesn’t do justice to how poorly he’s pitched, as evidenced by his 7.02 xERA, 4.88 xFIP and 4.76 SIERA.
Moreover, Vasquez has surrendered a .355 wOBA to righties and a .365 wOBA to lefties this season. Mookie Betts was scratched yesterday, so his inclusion in the lineup is merely a guess.
Dustin May has pitched admirably this year, bouncing back from a 4.96 ERA over 25 appearances (23 starts) last year, despite ugly ERA estimators. His 4.30 ERA in 15 starts in 2026 is actually notably higher than his 3.70 xERA, 3.81 xFIP and 3.84 SIERA.
Still, the 28-year-old righty has coughed up a .350 wOBA to 210 left-handed batters faced this year, while holding 132 righties to a .229 wOBA. Mauricio Dubon, Austin Riley and Jorge Mateo are the only projected right-handed batters in Atlanta’s lineup. That’s bad news for May, and outstanding news for Atlanta’s DFS outlook.
Core Studs
- Shohei Ohtani has 18 home runs with 60 runs, 50 RBI, six stolen bases, a .406 on-base percentage (OBP), .242 ISO, .399 wOBA and 155 wRC+ in 369 plate appearances in 2026.
- Max Muncy has belted 38 bombs with a .387 OBP, .242 ISO, .382 wOBA and 147 wRC+ in 755 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
- Drake Baldwin has mashed 14 taters with 44 runs, 39 RBI, one stolen base, a .337 OBP, .201 ISO, .347 wOBA and 119 wRC+ in 270 plate appearances this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit three homers with a .342 OBP, .211 ISO, .358 wOBA and 127 wRC+ in 79 plate appearances against righties this season.
- Jake Cronenworth has amassed 25 homers, a .343 OBP, .157 ISO, .328 wOBA and 113 wRC+ in 931 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
- Zach McKinstry is in OK form, popping two homers with 13 runs, five RBI, a .325 OBP, .162 ISO, .323 wOBA and 105 wRC+ in his previous 84 plate appearances.
Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Bryce Miller has a blistering 33.1% strikeout rate this year, with the aforementioned plate-discipline numbers and pitch-modeling data to support his dominance. Miller also has an eye-popping 40.5% strikeout rate and 34 strikeouts in his last four starts, totaling 24.2 innings.
Davis Martin might have turned into a pumpkin. In his last five starts spanning 25.1 innings, he’s had the following numbers:
- 5.68 ERA
- 4.63 xERA
- 4.74 xFIP
- 4.89 SIERA
- 1.70 WHIP
- 8.7% walk rate
- 16.5
- 19 strikeouts
- 9.9 SwStr%
- 23.2 CSW%
- 88 stuff+
- 92 location+
- 84 pitching+
Martin has struck out fewer than five batters in three straight starts and four of his last five.
Matt Olson has torn the cover off the ball this season. In 84 games and 366 plate appearances this season, Olson has tallied 89 hits, including 20 homers, with 54 runs, 52 RBIs, a .272 batting average, .342 OBP, .251 ISO, .369 wOBA and 134 wRC+.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
