Week 17 may have been the most successful weekly planner since I took over writing this article. Highlighted in that article were William Contreras, Sal Frelick and Alek Thomas, who’ve all had excellent week 17 showings. Thomas homered Tuesday, Frelick had a double, home run and five RBI on Thursday and William Contreras already has three XBH and four RBI through Thursday.
Week 18 looks to be a fairly easy week’s worth of matchups to navigate, as well. Plenty of teams have seven-game matchups, which you know we always love around here. There are a few very friendly hitters’ parks being utilized consistently as well – Great American Ballpark, especially.
Let’s work on finding those crucial matchup advantages and helping you get one step closer to securing your spot in the fantasy baseball playoffs.
Matchups To Target
Boston Red Sox: vs. KC (4), vs. DET (3)
Of all the teams with a seven-game week, the Red Sox have by far the easiest one. All seven come at home, where Boston is hitting a league-leading (and absurd) .292 as a team. Their .829 OPS at home is third-best in baseball, and they’re one of only four teams to strike out less than 20%. They face a Royals team whose pitching staff has the lowest Stuff+ in the league, and their 5.31 road ERA is second only to Oakland.
Detroit traded away Michael Lorenzen at the deadline, and while Eduardo Rodriguez has been amazing, Tarik Skubal is still finding his bearings. There’s not much standing in the way of the Red Sox lighting up the scoreboard this week.
Players To Target
Jarren Duran (OF – BOS)
Jarren Duran has been one of my favorite waiver wire additions for the past eight weeks. While he’s recently graduated from the ranks of waiver wire option, he’s still not getting the full attention he deserves.
At home this season, Duran is hitting .348 with 21 XBH and 14 steals in 42 games. He’s striking out at a respectable 21%, and his .958 OPS is by far a career-high. In his last 11 games, he’s hitting .310 with five XBH, nine runs scored and six stolen bases. Hitting leadoff is only the cherry on top at this point. Add and start him with the utmost confidence in week 18.
THE JARREN DURAN SHOW IS A DAILY AFFAIR!
7th homer of the season.
Red Sox up 2-0!
pic.twitter.com/qvpOZXABMC— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) August 2, 2023
Justin Turner (3B – BOS)
You may not realize it, but Justin Turner has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last 40 games. In those games, Turner is hitting .321 with 23 XBH and a robust 45 RBI. He’s found the fountain of youth and is suddenly having the best season of his career.
His hard contact numbers aren’t anything to write home about, but he’s making some of the best overall contact of his career. His 87.1% zone contact rate is well above league average, and he’s his typical disciplined at-the-plate self with just a 17.7% whiff rate. Turner hits both right and left-handers the same, so this week could very well be an eight-RBI week for him.
Atlanta Braves: @ PIT (4), @ NYM (4)
I see your seven-game week, Red Sox, and raise you an eight-game week for the best team in baseball. Not only is it an eight-game week, but the Braves also play two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball.
The Pirates’ pitching staff has had a collective 5.14 ERA since the beginning of July. They also have an abysmal 12.4% K-BB rate during that span. The Mets, on the other hand, just finished up a trade deadline where they traded away both of their superstars Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Kodai Senga is lined up to face Atlanta, but the Braves follow that up with matchups against Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana, who’ve both been underwhelming. Atlanta is set up for incredible success.
Players To Target
Orlando Arcia (SS, 2B – ATL)
One of the biggest surprises of 2023, Orlando Arcia, should continue to produce big numbers in week 18. Since July 1, he’s been hitting .291 with five home runs, 13 runs scored and 12 RBI. In a week where the Braves lineup faces nothing but right-handed pitching, Arcia should thrive.
For the year, he’s hitting .289 with a .748 OPS against right-handers. His 7.5% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit rate are both career highs, and he should be set up for another highly successful fantasy week, especially in a points-league setting.
Michael Harris II (OF – ATL)
There was a period of time there at the beginning of the year where my preseason “Michael Harris II is going to be the biggest outfield bust this season” was looking like it was going to come true. Thankfully, that’s not the case. At the end of May, Harris did a complete 180 and has been one of the best outfielders in baseball since.
He’s hit .338 with 24 XBH and 35 runs scored in that timeframe. Take it a step further, and since June 18, Harris has been hitting .361 with 17 XBH and six stolen bases in 35 games. Much like Arcia, Harris is better against righties, and this could prove to be his best week of the season up to this point.
Matchup To Avoid
Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. LAD (2), vs. SDP (3)
Once again, the Diamondbacks have found themselves right back on the list. This time, though, they’re on the wrong side. The biggest reason for the switch is their five-game schedule. In a week where so many teams play six and seven games, it’s hard to get excited about a team playing five. That’s especially true when the five games are against two of the better pitching rotations in baseball. Since July 16, the D-backs are hitting just .238 as a team with only 17 home runs. I know players from this lineup can be enticing, but it’s better to look elsewhere.
Players To Avoid
Alek Thomas (OF – ARI)
Last week, Thomas was one of my players to target. This week, I’m avoiding him. It’s not that crazy of a flip-flop, given the fact that he’s rostered in under 5% of leagues on most platforms. The biggest catalyst for this switch is his righty/lefty splits. Thomas sits against most lefties and has a .080 batting average against them for the year. With two of the D-backs’ five games coming against Julio Urias and Blake Snell, Thomas isn’t likely to get enough playing time to find relevance.
Alek Thomas – Arizona Diamondbacks (7)
pic.twitter.com/bGVQoxkqvZ— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 2, 2023
Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)
The presumed NL Rookie of the Year is on a cold streak, hitting just over .200 for the last few weeks. He’s still flashed the power and speed, hitting three home runs and stealing five bases in his last 13 games. Still, he has been lackluster otherwise. For a while, Carroll was one of those players widely considered “matchup-proof,” but the grind of the season may be manifesting itself as of late.
The lefty matchups will haunt him in week 18, as well. For the season, he’s hitting .264 off of them with just a .661 OPS. That’s 280 points lower than his OPS against right-handers. Carroll will bounce back and finish out the year by putting up excellent numbers. Week 18 just isn’t when that will begin to happen.
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