Fantasy Football Draft Values: Joe Mixon & Diontae Johnson (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the second part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North. Here is a closer look at a few players.

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Fantasy Football ADP Values: AFC North

ADP via FantasyPros

Joe Mixon (CIN): ADP 41.7 | RB17

I started the offseason being an anti-Mixon fan. However, I’ve come around on the veteran running back. Is Mixon a superstar? No. He’s averaged under 4.2 yards per rushing attempt each of the past four seasons. Yet, there is plenty to like about the former Oklahoma running back from last season. Mixon was the RB12, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing an average of 2.7 fewer games than the other 11 top-12 running backs. Furthermore, the veteran was the RB7 on a points-per-game basis, averaging more fantasy points per game than Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones.

Some will point to Mixon’s massive performance in Week 9 against the Panthers and say that inflated his fantasy production for the year. While that is true, that statement is exaggerated. First, almost every star player has a massive spike week at least once a year. Second, the veteran still averaged 12 fantasy points per game in the other 13 contests. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the RB14 last season with that fantasy average. With Samaje Perine in Denver, Mixon should have a career year in the passing game after setting career highs in that area in 2022.

Diontae Johnson (PIT): ADP 84.3 | WR34

Fantasy players who drafted Johnson last year might be afraid to pick him again this season. The veteran was the WR9 in 2021, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the former Toledo star was only the WR39 last season, averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game. Yet, Johnson’s targets per game average only dropped by 1.3 per contest. After finishing second in the NFL in 2021 with 169 targets, the veteran wide receiver finished seventh last year with 147. Where fantasy players got screwed was in the touchdown department.

Over the first three years of his career, Johnson averaged 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season, totaling at least five every season. Furthermore, he had eight receiving touchdowns in 2021, a career-high. Unfortunately, he didn’t find the end zone last season despite finishing top 10 in targets. By comparison, Dyami Brown had only 14 targets in 2022 but scored two receiving touchdowns. Johnson can’t be that unlucky at finding the end zone again. Had the veteran scored 6.7 receiving touchdowns last season, he would have been the WR19, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game.