NFL Training Camp is here and that means the 2023 NFL season is quickly approaching! Time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only target as values but also those you need to circle on your cheat sheets and prepare to reach for if needed. Here are my players to target in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
Be sure to pair this with my early-round draft strategy to DOMINATE your league this year.
Andrew Erickson’s Players to Target
Here are the players I’m targeting at each position.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
In his six games played with wide receiver Rashod Bateman last year – a talented healthy WR – Lamar Jackson averaged nearly 27 fantasy points, 2.1 passing TDs and 208 passing yards per game. That per-game average would have ranked first over the last two seasons.
But without Bateman or any decent WRs? Just 17 fantasy points, 0.67 passing TDs and 165 passing yards per game. Looking ahead to 2023 with a healthy Bateman plus the additions of veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-rounder Zay Flowers, Jackson looks primed to return to his fantasy MVP form. I love his betting odds to win the league’s real MVP award.
With rushing still part of Jackson’s game – 69.5 rushing yards per healthy game in 2022 – second to only Justin Fields – he looks like a steal as the QB4 outside the first “elite” tier of QBs.
Jackson was PFF’s highest-graded passer throwing from 10-19 yards downfield in 2022, which tends to be an extremely sticky stat and an indicator of future success at the QB position. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken is also sure to bring in a more pass-happy approach based on his experience in the NFL. Back in 2018 as a play-caller with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monken called an offense that ranked fourth in pass-play rate on early downs and first in passing yards.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Justin Herbert is one of my favorite “elite” quarterbacks to draft. As I have echoed numerous times in my QB Best Ball Primer, the name of the game with the quarterback position is still value drafting. And the fact that one can draft Herbert – who scored the second-most fantasy points among all players in 2021, averaging 23.3 points per game – as the QB7 off the board is beyond elite fantasy value. Keep in mind that last season, Herbert played just four games with a fully healthy combination of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He also suffered a rib injury which further limited his fantasy production.
Considering all the injuries, it should surprise no one that Herbert posted a career-low 3.6% TD rate, nearly two percentage points down from the previous season. As a result, Herbert also failed to eclipse 22 fantasy points per game, a mark he surpassed as a rookie and in his second season. But with fully healthy weapons, first-round pick Quentin Johnston added to the fold, and Kellen Moore taking over as the offensive play caller, there’s never been a better time to BUY Herbert’s suppressed ADP. In Moore’s first season as the Cowboys offensive coordinator, Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing yards (4,902).
And as I mentioned earlier, only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points than Herbert did in 2021. The Chargers quarterback is being drafted outside the first four rounds. But all indications are he should bounce back in a big way, giving fantasy managers a mega edge selecting outside the top-6 quarterbacks per ADP. Consider this. Herbert has the second shortest odds on some sportsbooks to lead the NFL in passing yards (+700). Makes sense considering he has tossed for 4,700-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. Over the last five seasons, no quarterback that had led the NFL in passing yards has finished outside the top-5 at the position, with four of the five finishing inside the top 3.
Herbert provides fantasy managers the easiest path to elite quarterback fantasy production that doesn’t require a Round 2 or 3 pick.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)
Watson seems like a potential fantasy football quarterback winner if he can recapture a QB1 overall form from his days with the Houston Texans. His return in 2022 was horrible, but it’s excusable based on so much missed time. He has weapons ranging from Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, Nick Chubb and David Njoku. Plus, Watson will benefit from an entire offseason to prepare as the Browns’ full-time starter in 2023 under the coaching combination of HC Kevin Stefanski/OC Alex Van Pelt.
That coaching duo helped Baker Mayfield bounce back in his third season to an 11-5 record. And just last season, they put Jacoby Brissett in a position to finish 17th in passing EPA and 12th in PFF passing grade. And let’s not forget the Browns’ top-3 offensive line.
If Watson returns to form, he will not only be a huge win in fantasy, but he will make every Browns player a screaming value. Watson will be 28 years old at the start of the season. Mike Vick came back after essentially three years removed from NFL football and finish as the fantasy QB1…four years after he was the fantasy QB2 overall.
The former Texans QB has been a top-5 fantasy QB every single year he has played at least 15 games. And he is being vastly undersold as a rushing threat. As bad as he was last year, he still posted a solid 175 rushing in 6 games (nearly 30 rushing yards per game). Over 17 games, that extrapolates to nearly 500 rushing yards. That would have ranked 6th among all QBs in 2022.
Among the 7 QBs who rushed for at least 30 yards per game last season – Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota and Kyler Murray – only Murray failed to crack the top 10 in fantasy points per dropback. Five finished inside the top-5 fantasy scoring QBs on a per-dropback basis.
In the Browns’ first preseason game, Deshaun Watson had 5 total dropbacks. He rushed three times. Get ready for the rushing production to vault Watson into fantasy QB1 territory.
And as bad as Watson was as a thrower in 2022, there’s a glimmer of hope from one particular metric. He showed he could still be a very effective passer throwing at the intermediate level (10-19 yards) which tends to be a sticker statistic year after year. His 68.4% completion rate on those throws ranked second-best in the NFL. His yards per attempt (12.9) also ranked second. Joe Burrow ranked first in both those categories in 2021.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
Geno Smith is my favorite late-round quarterback because he’s being so vastly undervalued. The 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle’s fully-entrenched starter, finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. The only quarterbacks to post higher QB1 rates (top-12) were Mahomes, Hurts, Allen and Burrow. Smith finished as a fantasy QB1 in 56% of his contests played last season.
Additionally, all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB15 is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early best ball ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1. Oh well, more for me (and you).
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
As one of the league’s premier pure rushers, Nick Chubb quietly amassed an impressive 1,525 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry again) and 13 touchdowns in 2022, finishing as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%). From Weeks 1-12, he was the RB4 overall and in points per game. However, his production tailed off towards the end of the season with the return of Deshaun Watson to the lineup, dropping him to RB23 overall in Weeks 13-17.
However, with Watson expected to raise the ceiling of the Browns’ offense with a full offseason back to football, Chubb’s fantasy production should remain more consistent throughout the 2023 season, making him a near-bust-proof draft pick. Last season alone, Chubb was just one of 3 running backs to finish inside the top-36 in every single game (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler).
Chubb is currently the betting market’s favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +600 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Additionally, with the departure of running backs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, Chubb could see an increase in opportunities in the receiving game. He demonstrated his ability in this area with a strong Week 18 performance, playing a season-high 75% snap share, running a route on 71% of dropbacks, and catching five-of-six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards. Chubb finished Week 18 as the RB1 overall.
Unproven 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is currently pegged as the No. 2 RB and has missed most of training camp with lower body injuries.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
With Ezekiel Elliott signing a deal in New England, Tony Pollard will have the opportunity to take over as the team’s lead back. Last season, he finished as the RB7 in fantasy despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game. He was a top-12 running back in 40% of his games which ranked 8th best. Pollard’s efficiency was on full display as he averaged 5.3 yards per carry and was the third-highest-graded running back by PFF. From Weeks 7-16, Pollard was the highest-scoring running back in fantasy with 19.3 points per game while playing as the team’s featured back. Even if Dallas eventually does bring in another body, Pollard’s efficient play style will mitigate any workload limitations. Currently, Pollard has little-to-no established RB competition in Dallas between the likes of Deuce Vaughn, Rico Dowdle and Malik Davis.
His top-3 status during his elite stretch in PPR matches exactly where the FantasyPros PPR projections have Pollard slated…as the RB3 overall in 2023. With little competition in Dallas’ backfield, the projections suggest we might not be HIGH enough on the Cowboys’ new RB1, who is being drafted as the RB7 per ADP.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Ezekiel Elliott signed a one-year contract with a base salary of $3 million ($1M at signing) worth up to $6 million in incentives with the Patriots this offseason. However, the incentives-based contract suggests that Zeke will be nothing more than a strict RB2 there to just lighten the load off Stevenson, while also seeing an opportunity for goal-line usage. The red-zone opportunities are the only legitimate downside to Elliott signing from the Stevenson perspective. But you weren’t drafting Stevenson because he was slated for 15 TDs on the Patriots. In every other capacity, Stevenson should remain the team’s featured back. Because Elliott is DUST. 3.7 career-low yards per carry in 2022. Stevenson’s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 of 2022 when he was the RB13 in points per game and RB9 overall as the Patriots’ lead back.
Recall that even when Damien Harris played alongside Stevenson, the Pats RB1 STILL finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82). Dump-off targets aren’t going away behind a problematic Patriots OL. Also, Stevenson’s strong 2022 season was not fueled by TDs. He was the only fantasy RB1 to score fewer than 7 TDs. How? Because he’s just THAT good.
Super-efficient running back – PFF’s 11th highest graded rusher – with pass-game chops to boot.
He finished as an RB1 in 44% of his games last season, which tied Chubb for 6th-highest Buy the ADP dip on Stevenson that Zeke’s signing will undoubtedly cause. Salivate over a suppressed Round 4 price tag. Stevenson has a sky-high fantasy ceiling that is worth buying into. His combined size and pass-catching props are a fantasy manager’s dream for the running back position.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
J.K. Dobbins’ 2022 campaign got off to a sluggish start as he was recovering from major knee surgery and missed the first two weeks of the season.
However, when Dobbins finally returned later in the year, he showed why he’s such a highly regarded talent. In his last five games, including the playoffs, he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. This strong finish is a promising sign for his 2023 prospects in an offense that should light the league ablaze under the QB/OC combination of Lamar Jackson/Todd Monken.
And although he continued to split carries with Gus Edwards in 2022, Dobbins’ explosive running style and effectiveness in the Ravens’ offense make him the best fantasy asset. Despite the presence of Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, Dobbins is the clear lead back for the Ravens and should be viewed as a top-tier fantasy option in 2023. Baltimore could ride him into the ground as an impending free agent.
And he’s finally back at training camp, after being recently activated off the PUP list.
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
Rachaad White‘s rookie season saw him flash his legitimate 3-down back skill set in the Buccaneers’ offense. Despite working in a timeshare with Leonard Fournette, White was able to average 11 fantasy points per game as the RB26 and operate as the 1A back in the second half of the season despite averaging just four yards per carry.
In his one spot start without Fournette in the lineup – Week 12 versus Cleveland – White went 14 for 64 rushing and 9 for 45 on 9 targets receiving. He totaled a 90% snap share on offense.
List of rookie RBs to earn a 90% snap share in a game last year: Rachaad White. That’s the list. The last rookie RB to see a 90% snap share under a Bruce Arians team? David Johnson.
White also started every game from Week 10 onward even with Fournette active in all but 1 game. The Buccaneers RB posted a 62% RB2 finisher rate as a starter over the rest of the season.
With the workhorse and three-down role all but his in the Buccaneer’s backfield, White owns easy RB1 fantasy upside at the cost of a backend fantasy RB2.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR – DET)
The Sun God is one of my other favorite draft targets in Round 2. His 32% target rate per route run trailed only Tyreek Hill in 2022.
With no Jameson Williams and a slate of favorable defensive matchups, there will be no stopping the burn from the Sun God himself. From Weeks 8-18, St. Brown averaged 80.5 receiving yards, seven receptions and 17 PPR points per game.
And since Week 12 of the 2021 season…Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks first in target rate per route run, second in total receptions, 3rd in first downs and 5th in overall targets.
Get this man a life jacket because is going to be DROWING in targets.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
Marvin Jones‘ usage can provide us an idea of how the Jaguars will deploy their three top WRs in 2023, between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks and led the Jaguars in deep targets (18) in 2022. He only caught three of them. All three players will be full-time starters in three WR sets, with Ridley providing a much-improved upgrade as a deep/red-zone threat.
Let’s not forget that the last time we saw Ridley suit up, he was borderline elite at commanding targets. As the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver, he owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). I like drafting at a WR2 price tag with easy fantasy WR1 upside, just two years removed from a 90-1374-9 2020 campaign.
Not to mention, Per FantasyPros’ Strength of Schedule Tool, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 SOS for fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy WRs. The 2023 calendar is great for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and co. to take another leap in Year 3.
Just be price sensitive to Ridley because he does have some bust potential so many years removed from football. With so much time missed, it begs the question of how Ridley’s body will hold up getting back into football shape. The team is already taking things “slow” with him this offseason to avoid any potential soft-tissue injuries after so much time away. But his past production and outlook in an up-and-coming Jaguars offense outweigh the potential risks, in my opinion at the right cost. That’s why I target him in drafts when he is available in Round 4. But drafters need to acknowledge that Ridley remains a risky pick because his entire 2023 outlook is all projection. And the projection looks less and less appealing as he gets steamed up draft boards. Practice safe drafting and know when Ridley’s price becomes too much.
WR18-20 range in Round 4 is fair in my estimate. Inside Round 3 as the WR15 – his current ADP on Underdog and Drafters – is likely too rich for my blood. But on Yahoo and Sleeper, he goes outside the top 40 overall players.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Christian Watson could experience a sophomore slump if Jordan Love can’t deliver as the full-time starter for the Packers. However, I’d remain a buyer of Watson regardless because Watson was absolutely dynamite as a rookie.
His 26% target rate per route run is nothing but impressive, ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. Watson’s 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10 and tied with superstar Davante Adams.
And in a must-win Week 18 contest vs. the Lions, he was once again the target leader (23% target share), going for 104 receiving yards on a team-high five catches. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis in PPR.
He displayed an extremely high weekly ceiling, finishing as a top-12 receiver in 31% of his games (14th at the position). Same as Jaylen Waddle and superior to Tee Higgins.
If Watson takes over the downfield and red zone looks that Allen Lazard saw the majority of in 2022, prepare for a massive second-year leap.
He is the clear alpha in the Packers’ passing game, with the current depth chart listed as Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose and Samori Toure.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Diontae Johnson is slated for a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn’t score last season – likely a fluke – and that’s being held against him. Even though DJ ranks: 5th in total targets (460), 7th in receptions (281) and 9th in target share (25%) over the past 3 seasons. Johnson’s ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season. His WR30 ADP is insulting.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
By far, my favorite tight end to draft in this range is Darren Waller. He is my No. 3-ranked tight end. Because becoming the No. 1 pass-catching option for a team as tight end is a rare feat. There’s only a handful of teams that feature such a player, with the Giants being the newest to join the list after their acquisition of the ex-Raiders tight end.
The 6-foot-6 pass-catcher came to Big Blue in exchange for a third-round pick, and he immediately should step in as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. That was not the case for Waller last year, as he was fighting for targets with alpha Davante Adams. But Waller showed that when he was healthy that he could still deliver, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. He also posted the second-highest rate of top-6 finishes (38%).
Waller “the baller” still has plenty left in the tank and should be viewed as a clear-cut winner post-trade.
He has the chance to replicate his 2021 numbers when he was the No. 1 receiver in his offense, posting top-5 fantasy tight end numbers. And better yet, Daniel Bellinger‘s elite usage/route participation from last season in the Brian Daboll offense as an every-snap player – 80 percent-plus snap share in six of the last seven games – suggests that Waller won’t leave the field. That will make it much easier for the TE7 in ADP to crest elite fantasy tight-end status.
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)
Gerald Everett was the TE15 last season and ranked second on the Chargers in red-zone targets (5th among TEs) despite modest snap usage (58% route participation). He also balled out with a 6-109-1 stat line in LA’s lone playoff game.
Finished 7th in YAC/rec (6.5) while finishing 8th in catches (58) and 9th in total targets (82). Those were all career highs.
And Everett will benefit in a new offense led by offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who did wonders for Dalton Schultz’s fantasy upside over the past two seasons. Everett is the superior athlete, giving him more upside than Schultz could ever deliver. Long story short, Everett had a career year in his first year with the Chargers and is cheaper than last season. You know what do to. Mt. Everett 2023 eruption szn.
TE17 ADP. #Bolts. This is the sleeper tight end way.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
