Wide Receiver Projections: Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown (Fantasy Football)

This is an article that fascinates me. Most pieces I write generally focus on a fantasy perspective, but this one is more directed toward the gambling community. It’s also an interesting look at our premier projection system, which is an excellent tool for any fantasy manager.

With that said, I’ve dug deep down into these projections and found some estimates that I disagreed with. It’s an excellent opportunity to bet on some of these wide receiver totals, so let’s look at some of these wideout over/unders. And check out our predictions for running back projections from earlier this month.

More Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Projections
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Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Wide Receiver Over/Under Projections (2023 Fantasy Football)

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) Over 98.6 Receptions

Allen has been a consummate professional throughout his career, and it’s strange to see his projection below 100 catches. Justin Herbert‘s safety blanket has been feasting in this offense for years, picking up at least 97 receptions in five of the last six years. I always hear people say that Allen is injury-prone, but he’s played at least 14 games in all but one of those.

That’s the one season he didn’t reach 97 catches, but he still had 66 receptions across 10 games, which was last year. If you extrapolate that across just 15 games, that would equate to 99 receptions. He’s also averaging close to 10 targets per game in that six-year span, and only an injury will keep him below the century mark this year.

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) Over 80.3 Receptions

The no-touchdown season are all people talk about when it comes to Johnson, but this guy has been a reception hound ever since he was drafted. Despite failing to find pay-dirt last season, DJ had 86 catches on 147 targets. That was one of the worst years of his career, averaging 93.7 receptions on 153.3 targets since his sophomore season. It’s almost impossible for a guy who’s getting 150 targets not to surpass 80 receptions, especially since DJ is catching so many short passes from an up-and-coming Kenny Pickett.

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) Over 77.8 Receptions

Something tells me Brown is going to go off this season. I always love to draft top wide receivers for lousy football teams because those clubs have to throw more than anyone else. Garbage time is one of the best times to get fantasy production, and we expect Downtown Brown to feast in those circumstances all season. In 12 games last year, Brown had 67 catches on 107 targets. He also had 91 receptions on 146 targets in the year prior and did that damage with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster.

With Hopkins leaving town, Brown should be the key point in this passing game. All he needs to do is duplicate what he did in the last two years to clear this total, and that looks like a lock since he’s likely looking at 150 targets.