Fantasy Football Outlook: Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Luke Musgrave, Jared Goff

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the Thursday Night Football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of Thursday’s game between the Lions and Packers.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jared Goff: Goff continues to play, hands down, fantastic football. He ranks fourth in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and fourth in adjusted completion rate. He’s also ninth in fantasy points per dropback. The Packers have held opposing passers to the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, but they are allowing the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Goff should have no problems shredding the Packers’ zone coverage (70-83% of their starting corners snaps). Goff has the eighth-highest yards per attempt and second-highest fantasy points per dropback this season against zone. I would worry about the Packers’ pass rush (11th-best in pressure rate and blitz rate), but Detroit has done a fine job keeping Goff clean (ninth-lowest pressure rate faced). Week 4 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jahmyr Gibbs: I’d expect Gibbs’ workload in Week 4 to be comparable to his Week 2 usage. He played 48% of the snaps with 14 touches and 56 total yards. He had a scintillating 56.8% route run per team dropback rate with a 25.7% target share (nine targets). I don’t know if he sees nine targets, but a median projection of 6-7 targets isn’t insane. Among 59 qualifying running backs, Gibbs ranks fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs should enjoy the same gap scheme production on the ground against Green Bay (Gibbs 67.7% gap). Green Bay has allowed the third-most receptions and receiving yards to backs, along with the tenth-highest yards per reception. Week 4 Positional Value: RB2

Packers QB Jordan Love was sure talking like they were going to have running back Aaron Jones back for Thursday against the Lions, and then WR Romeo Doubs just came right out and said it.

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 26, 2023

Aaron Jones: It sounds like Aaron Jones will be back this week. He was able to log limited practices on Monday and Tuesday (hamstring). Jones played 47% of the snaps in Week 1 with 11 touches and 127 total yards. Jones left midway through the third quarter of the game. Prior to his exit in the first half, Jones played 75% of the snaps, so don’t get it twisted. Jones was the workhorse back, with A.J. Dillon spelling him occasionally. Among 65 qualifying running backs, Jones ranks 37th in yards after contact per attempt. All I can say to Jones in Week 4 against the Lions’ run defense…good luck. Detroit has held rushers to the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-worst stuff rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Lions are 14th in yards per carry allowed to gap runs (Jones 55.6% gap). Jones should be able to make up for any rushing shortcomings in the passing game. Detroit has allowed the seventh-best receiving yards and yards per reception to running backs. Week 4 Positional Value: Low-end RB1/high-end RB2

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave’s usage has been in line with TE1 production, but we haven’t seen Musgrave marry the usage with actual production yet. He is eighth in route run per team dropback rate (76.2%), 12th in target share (15.8%), 11th in YPRR (1.55), and 14th in first-read share among 47 qualifying tight ends. This week could be the monster breakout game that we have been waiting for. Musgrave leads the team in target share (21.3%) and first read share (23.4%) against zone coverage. The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1 with huge upside