MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Wednesday (9/27)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has eight games, starting at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for the medium-sized slate are reduced to four starting pitchers, two stacks, two studs and three values/punts.

• Trade Value Chart
• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two aces are the most exciting pitching selections tonight, with the top-ranked hurler owning the top billing in cash games and the second-ranked pitcher getting the nod in GPPs. The third-ranked pitcher is the best SP2 in cash games at DK. Finally, the fourth-ranked pitcher is risky, but his home splits make him a viable SP2 in GPPs.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. OAK
Lopez is pitching well lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he's had a 3.19 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 28.2 K%, 30.2 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 108 Location+ and 108 Pitching+. He can put together another stellar start this year in a cushy matchup tonight.

The Athletics are tied for 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.1 K% versus righties in 2023. Oakland is 23rd in wRC+ (88) and has a 26.2 K% in the previous 30 days. The A's are also tied for 22nd in wRC+ (90) and have a 24.0 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Twins are -275, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Dane Dunning (TEX) at LAA
Dunning has been rocky lately. Still, he's pitched well on the road. In 85.1 innings on the road this year, he has a 3.38 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 9.7 BB% and 21.5 K%. The matchup isn't imposing, either.

The Angels are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) and have a 25.3 K% versus righties in 2023. They're tied for 26th in wRC+ (82) and have a 27.3 K% in the previous 30 days. The Angels are also 21st in wRC+ (97) and have a 26.0 K% at home this year. Additionally, the Rangers are -162, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

GPP Recommendations:

Gerrit Cole (NYY) at TOR
Cole is in the zone. In his previous five starts spanning 32.0 innings, he's had a 1.69 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 4.1 BB%, 29.5 K%, 26.3 CSW%, 118 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 108 Pitching+. The matchup is more imposing for Cole than Lopez. So, that's why Lopez is the pick in cash games, and Cole is the choice in GPPs.

Still, the Blue Jays are tied for 16th in wRC+ (102) and have a 21.2 K% at home this year. The betting info is also decent. The Yankees are -110, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.

Sean Manaea (SF) vs. SD
Manaea has made the most of his home appearances this year. In 51.1 innings in San Francisco this season, Manaea has a 3.51 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.1 BB% and 27.8 K%.

The Padres are a tricky matchup. Nevertheless, the betting info is somewhat encouraging, especially for a pitcher as cheap as Manaea is on DK. The Giants are -110, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. The bar is low for Manaea to be a value tonight. And his low salary will allow gamers to spend extra resources on hitters. As a result, Manaea is a rock-solid GPP choice at DK.

Top Lineup Stacks

• Road (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 12.5 Runs/LAD -225

The Dodgers are still at Coors Field, which might mean fireworks tonight. Los Angeles is tied for second in wRC+ (116) and third in ISO (.196) versus righties in 2023. LA is tied for fourth in wRC+ (118) in the previous 30 days. The Dodgers are also third in wRC+ (113) on the road this year.

The matchup is mouthwatering. The Rockies haven't announced a starter yet, but Roster Resource projects Noah Davis to toe the slab. He has an 8.77 ERA and 5.17 xFIP in seven appearances (five starts) this year. He's ceded a .364 wOBA to righties and a .434 wOBA to lefties. Colorado's bullpen is also trash. So, the Dodgers can explode tonight.

• Home (Target Field)
• Value: High
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -275

The Athletics haven't announced a starter, but Roster Resource projects Joey Estes to get the ball. The rookie righty allowed six runs (five earned runs) in 4.2 innings in his only big-league start after tallying a 4.91 xFIP in Double-A and a 6.04 xFIP in Triple-A this season.

Minnesota's offense is equipped to pile onto Estes's struggles. The Twins are fifth in wRC+ (110) versus righties in 2023. Minnesota is tied for fourth in wRC+ (118) in the previous 30 days. The Twins are also sixth in wRC+ (115) and fourth in ISO (.200) at home this season.

• In 483 plate appearances against righties this year, Freddie Freeman has hit 14 homers and stolen 12 bases with a .411 OBP, .204 ISO and 153 wRC+.
• Edouard Julien has mashed eight taters with a .446 OBP, .281 ISO and 182 wRC+ in 157 plate appearances against righties at home this year.

• In 110 plate appearances against righties (which doesn't include last night's effort) at home, Matt Wallner has hit seven bombs with a .436 OBP, .330 ISO and 192 wRC+.
• Jason Heyward has hit 13 homers with a .352 OBP, .208 ISO and 127 wRC+ in 330 plate appearances against righties this season.
• In 339 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Josh Donaldson has had a .336 OBP, .288 ISO and 135 wRC+.

Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins and Dodgers are the most exciting sources for hitters tonight. Thankfully, Minnesota has some low-salaried hitters to offset the salaries of the suggested studs and the pricey starting pitchers.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.